Ex-TC Fili's impact on NZ - Apr 12-14
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Re: Ex-TC Fili's impact on NZ - Apr 12-14
Fili's slight eastward trend continues on MS's track-map this morning.
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Re: Ex-TC Fili's impact on NZ - Apr 12-14
MS have pulled the trigger and gone Red for heavy rain for Gisborne and Wairoa.
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Re: Ex-TC Fili's impact on NZ - Apr 12-14
The East Cape/ Gisborne area is going to get hit hard.
See how much rain we can get here, not expecting much with the system further east now and the flow will be SE overnight, GFS clears the rain from here tomorrow morning.
See how much rain we can get here, not expecting much with the system further east now and the flow will be SE overnight, GFS clears the rain from here tomorrow morning.
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Re: Ex-TC Fili's impact on NZ - Apr 12-14
No rain here yet, little wind. GFS down to a couple mm now. What a dramatic change from 48 hours ago
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Re: Ex-TC Fili's impact on NZ - Apr 12-14
Yea very frustrating isn’t it. Looked like we were in for a good soaking. Models played us good.David wrote:No rain here yet, little wind. GFS down to a couple mm now. What a dramatic change from 48 hours ago
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Re: Ex-TC Fili's impact on NZ - Apr 12-14
Agreed, I'd be really thinking of evacuation if I lived there.
It looks horrendous on the models.
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Re: Ex-TC Fili's impact on NZ - Apr 12-14
looks like Auckland will just get the edge of the rain band and strong winds now?
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Re: Ex-TC Fili's impact on NZ - Apr 12-14
MetService still showing about 20mm for (mainland ) Auckland and Waikato , whereas models showing next to nothing now. Interesting to see which source is correct, this close to the event.Awhituobs wrote:looks like Auckland will just get the edge of the rain band and strong winds now?
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Re: Ex-TC Fili's impact on NZ - Apr 12-14
Its moving SSE currently, so that means the rain band will get to Auckland, and possibly the strong winds too
if it continues the current track it will pass west of East cape...which is more west than modelled
still bad news for East Cape area re rain and wind either way
if it continues the current track it will pass west of East cape...which is more west than modelled
still bad news for East Cape area re rain and wind either way
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Fili in Hawkes Bay and observations.
In Napier, the rain has started to fall just light at this stage with some steadier bursts. Wind is calm. Radar looks impressive, particularly up North it looks as though the rain has been steady in Northland and Auckland, perhaps quite heavy in the Coromandel. Can see the central rotation on radar. Question is, is it further West that anticipated? Fatter drops of rain here now. Getting heavier quickly.
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Re: Ex-TC Fili's impact on NZ - Apr 12-14
Have had 9mm of mostly light rain here overnight, at least it’s something
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Re: Ex-TC Fili's impact on NZ - Apr 12-14
18mm here so far since about 9pm. Winds not overly strong.
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Re: Ex-TC Fili's impact on NZ - Apr 12-14
Fizzer? Looks to me like it is heading that way. Rain bands don’t look impressive.
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Re: Ex-TC Fili's impact on NZ - Apr 12-14
Centre actually looks a little further east than MS's last track-map to me.
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Re: Ex-TC Fili's impact on NZ - Apr 12-14
Way too early to say, especially for Eastern folk.
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Re: Ex-TC Fili's impact on NZ - Apr 12-14
Some light to moderate rain in the Whangarei area from yesterday afternoon. Nothing really to speak of wind wise. Surprisingly chilly this morning!
Looks like it may head even further east than the models were suggesting. Will hopefully mean less rain and wind than forecast in Gisborne and Wairoa.
It's good that this thing didn't track straight down the middle of the North Island as a low 970s storm as some of the models suggested a few days back. Even though the weather enthusiast in me may be a bit disappointed right now.
Looks like it may head even further east than the models were suggesting. Will hopefully mean less rain and wind than forecast in Gisborne and Wairoa.
It's good that this thing didn't track straight down the middle of the North Island as a low 970s storm as some of the models suggested a few days back. Even though the weather enthusiast in me may be a bit disappointed right now.
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Re: Ex-TC Fili's impact on NZ - Apr 12-14
35 knot gusting southerlies here now (i.e gale force gusts), and some rain
not as bad as originally predicted for here, but you get that
you can see the center easily on the rain radar
seems to be back moving SSE again after a lob SE movement overnight
the onshore flow is what is going to cause orographic high rainfall in the Gisborne/East Cape area
not as bad as originally predicted for here, but you get that
you can see the center easily on the rain radar
seems to be back moving SSE again after a lob SE movement overnight
the onshore flow is what is going to cause orographic high rainfall in the Gisborne/East Cape area
Brian Hamilton
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Re: Ex-TC Fili's impact on NZ - Apr 12-14
MS track-map this morning shows Fili's centre was indeed further east of Great Barrier than previous maps, but still the same distance from East Cape. Hicks Bay currently gusting near 100 km/h and down to 993 hPa...
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Re: Ex-TC Fili's impact on NZ - Apr 12-14
Can see the edge of it to the north from here. Looking pretty impressive.Just wish I was a couple of thousand feet higher to get a better view.
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Re: Ex-TC Fili's impact on NZ - Apr 12-14
Hicks Bay currently down to 986 hPa. East Cape Lighthouse and Ruatoria both already up to around 150mm for this event so far, with reports of flooding in Ruatoria.
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Re: Ex-TC Fili's impact on NZ - Apr 12-14
I see Hicks Bay is getting 57 kts gusts currently
as the low passes relatively not all that far offshore, going by the rain radar
as the low passes relatively not all that far offshore, going by the rain radar
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Re: Ex-TC Fili's impact on NZ - Apr 12-14
Severe gales currently Hawkes Bay area
Brian Hamilton
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Re: Ex-TC Fili's impact on NZ - Apr 12-14
I think Hicks Bay got down to 984 hPa yesterday, with gusts of at least 115 km/h.
A few notable rainfall figures (mm) over the last 36 hours according to Gisborne District Council.
200 .. East Cape Lighthouse
185 .. Ruatoria
178 .. Te Puia Springs
123 .. Tolaga Bay
A few notable rainfall figures (mm) over the last 36 hours according to Gisborne District Council.
200 .. East Cape Lighthouse
185 .. Ruatoria
178 .. Te Puia Springs
123 .. Tolaga Bay