NZ Weather Forum

MS track-map this evening has shifted Fili back a little more east over the North Island...

Access 341mm 10 day for Hastings
vs
EC 56mm
Pffft

Ensemble Prognostics are still concerning despite EC's shift East, ensemble output attached:

It is worth checking in about 12-18 hours when another 3 cycles have gone by to see if EC's prognostic on the more easterly path remains consistent.
Access-G, UKMO and GFS are more inline and EC is the only model that has shown more easterly veering.

Latest GFS seems to be favouring a more easterly track similar to EC. Would spare most the worst of the winds. Will be interesting to see how things look this time tomorrow.

Some of the model runs today have looked downright nasty for large parts of the North Island.

yeah
rain will be welcome. except Gisborne area

The squeeze on eastern Bay of Plenty and Gisborne on Wednesday afternoon looks uncomfortably intense. Its not often a weather map scares me, but this could be very bad... [12Z ECMWF operational for 2pm Wednesday afternoon]

ECMWF further progressing east, with more ensemble members favouring even further eastern progression.

Access-G is still favouring more closer land interaction, will be interesting the next few rounds.

Fili's on the way south now. MS track-map this morning has also shifted Fili more to the east of the North Island.

I'm very surprised we haven't seen a red warning yet for Wednesday afternoon in the eastern Bay of Plenty and Gisborne areas. It looks life-threatening to me.

TonyT laying his cards on the table. That worries me. I'll admit it looks like a rapidly deeming storm off the East Coast. How deep, I dunno, but I'm thinking the high will allow more movement out to sea.

Wow Tonys statement tells me it looks bad. A reserved man says something like "Life Threatning" You should sit up and take notice.

The Regional councils are involved. for issuing red warnings with Met Service.It is not Met Service's alone decision.The aspect of risk to community and potential infrastructure damage is one of the decision makers to implement a red warning

18Z ECMWF is virtually unchanged from 12Z run. Its the squash of the depression centre around East Cape which squeezes the flow. Wind speeds on the downslopes into the eastern Bay of Plenty are going to be huge. Rain rates on the upslopes on the Gisborne side are going to be huge too. Eastern Coromandel only just misses out on storm force winds by a whisker as well.

Could be torrential here in Hawkes Bay. I suppose I'm thinking 150mm of rain in less than 24 hours, maybe more in parts. Wind, and sea surges later into Wensday and Thursday. How deep can this go- sub 970 would be interesting. What is causing the rapid intensification and what is the criteria for a 'bomb'? Anyone got the time to throw some answers out there?

the divergence area of the jet and the cooling aloft by the upper level trough causes big rain bands to form..which decreases the pressure..or vice versa...causing more cooling..feedback..then the jet stream will trip over itself, i.e stop propagating east where the low is, and start to spiral around the low. that will really crank it up from the top down

Would you have some educational links or maps or other imagery that I can refer to?

Ash wrote: ↑Mon 11/04/2022 16:24 Could be torrential here in Hawkes Bay. I suppose I'm thinking 150mm of rain in less than 24 hours, maybe more in parts. Wind, and sea surges later into Wensday and Thursday. How deep can this go- sub 970 would be interesting. What is causing the rapid intensification and what is the criteria for a 'bomb'? Anyone got the time to throw some answers out there?

Far northern Hawkes Bay ranges perhaps, but most of the region would probably not see 150mm. The criteria for bombing varies with latitude, but I think I'm right in saying that at 45deg S its 24 hpa in 24 hours. EC drops the central pressure from 984 at 3Z tues to 974 at 3Z weds, so well off bomb status. It does drop 7hpa between 22Z tues and 3Z Weds, and thats the period Coromandel will see its strongest winds.

East Cape drops from 1009 at 10Z Tues to 984 at 10Z Weds, a drop of 25hpa in 24 hours. At 10Z Tues the gradient from East Cape to Mahia Peninsula is 16hpa. These are impressive numbers.

Edit - the 0Z run doesnt deepen the depression centre as much, so effectively a lessening of severity. Phew.

No posts in 6 hours on the eve of the event, are you all preparing up there or just not worried? Seems the models are dragging the thing more away to the east which is good news.

Great Barrier Island is in for a lashing I would think.

There is also another aspect to TC Fili forecast projection and the overall atmospheric pattern occurring throughout this week into next which could cause cascading issues ontop of any expected from the remnants of TC Fili.

The North Island is just sitting next to the Lee of a strong jetstream from the tropics, this is expected to persist into the weekend albeit weaken in dynamics. While this jet expected to rapidly deepen the remnants for TC Fili, there is potential for a subsequent topical low to follow down a very similar pathway due to the jet.

Models are suggesting at this trough of low pressure is going to be much slower moving and pull down significant amounts of moisture from the tropics and carry allot of rain. Exact placement is still to far to tell (if any system will develop), however this trend is slightly concerning at this stage due to the possibility of subsequent heavy rain falling on areas which are likely to get heavy rain with ex TC-Fili.

Lots of eyes will be on the models as our atmosphere has seemed to get far more dynamic. We appear to have broken away of blocking highs and the shifting of the jet streams if the general model trend is to be believed.

Razor wrote: ↑Mon 11/04/2022 23:03 No posts in 6 hours on the eve of the event, are you all preparing up there or just not worried? Seems the models are dragging the thing more away to the east which is good news.

Great Barrier Island is in for a lashing I would think.

Just not worried. It seems like it is going to slip by us without too much bother. I'm in Hawkes Bay.

GFS down to 5mm for Auckland now, hoping we manage to get more than that

Yeah that incoming high keeps wanting to push it further east. Not a bad thing for anyone (apart from maybe missing out on rain for those that need it). Will hopefully make my fieldwork in Whagarei today and tomorrow a bit more pleasant as well.

Still not looking great for Gisborne/East Cape but not as bad as it was 24 hours ago.

David wrote: ↑Tue 12/04/2022 06:05 GFS down to 5mm for Auckland now, hoping we manage to get more than that

MS more like 25-30mm

I was worried 48 hours ago. Not worried at all now. Looks like the classic path of brushing east coast and clipping east cape. Ex TC often do this.

Ex TC Cook in April about 5 years or so ago had a similar path and similar strength. White Island had gusts to over 200km. It was a very close shave for the east coast of the north island. I suspect Fili will be very similar.


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Cooke cause alot of wind damage in Napier.