NZ Weather Forum

Kick off the thread with a rant. When the F is it going to rain this autumn? In May or not at all? I’m begging for a wet period.


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Not likely in the next 30 days, but more likely after that.

jamie wrote: ↑Tue 26/04/2022 21:02 I’m begging for a wet period.
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I'm begging for a non-clagg period?

you can't take any model output past 7 to 10 days too seriously TonyT surely
already the models are showing a change in the pattern after the first week in May (hopefully this holds)

Awhituobs wrote: ↑Wed 27/04/2022 09:24 you can't take any model output past 7 to 10 days too seriously TonyT surely
already the models are showing a change in the pattern after the first week in May (hopefully this holds)

The Euro weeklies are a pretty good tool to help answer questions like this.

models are hinting more and more at a pattern change to follow this next high pressure (i.e lower pressures in the Tasman)

rain is showing up...from a tasman low,.....yah...

A rain maker from the Tasman in about 10 days time ? it is a long way off but it is what we expect to see in the models in May.

the tasman low rain maker is still in the models
yah

Keep an eye on the high pressure south of Australia later in the week, it may send some cold air our way next week.

This afternoon Hamilton saw once again a balmy 22 degrees with isolated showers popping up.

It is only within the last 2 weeks proper we have started overnight lows drop to more normal autumnal lows. Yet in the afternoon considerably warm for this time of year.

Fine morning but high cloud thickening this afternoon from the west making it an overcast day with light winds from the north or NW.
Today's maximum was 20.6C before the thickening cloud cover moved across. A bit of a NW Arch later this afternoon towards sunset showing a bit of virga.

It’s crazy how dry it is. Going to be a tough winter without any grass growth in may.


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the next front/low is not looking so good now for rain , for early next week

jamie wrote:It’s crazy how dry it is. Going to be a tough winter without any grass growth in may.


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Even the lawn in town is drying right out now, and has almost stopped growing. This is becoming completly unnatural for the time of year.

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Yea the weather pasterns being this settled this far into Autumn is very strange, the High Pressure systems should have started to gravitate alot more northwards than they sit currently.

In the back of my head, I am wondering if we could see a much more sudden and drastic change to the overall weather pattern when South Pole upper atmospheric vortex starts to intensify more.

Tornado Tim wrote: ↑Mon 02/05/2022 14:14 In the back of my head, I am wondering if we could see a much more sudden and drastic change to the overall weather pattern when South Pole upper atmospheric vortex starts to intensify more.

191mm here year to date. 4th time in 13 years we got to May with less than 200mm year to date… becoming common to have extended dry lasting well into autumn

Currently a beautiful 23c in Christchurch following up yesterdays also very lovely 24c.

No rain forecast for the next 7 days either and temps between 18c and 23c.

Clear and fine nearly blue dome day here as well for today. Indian summer weather. 21.4C for today with not much wind.

David wrote: ↑Mon 02/05/2022 14:40 191mm here year to date. 4th time in 13 years we got to May with less than 200mm year to date… becoming common to have extended dry lasting well into autumn

A good chunk of that would have fallen in the space of 1 hour as well!

summer type weather pattern still on going
May normally sees wet and colder and windy weather. Just ask Duck Shooters
but not for the last few years

Definably not DS weather here today. Mind you clagg and fog is supposed to set in this evening and tomorrow according to the forecasts.

^ definitely gone foggy here. Had a lovely clear day, was all set to look for the New Moon just after sunset only to find the view completely obscured!
Currently 12.4° and still misty.

No fog here yet but in the distance it's looks as though pockets of mist are around the place.
Fine sunny day anyway with a light wind and 19.3C.