NZ Weather Forum

Another fine sunny day although slightly hazy. Fog moving in late afternoon and evening.
Today's maximum was 17.1C.

Southern parts of Australia catching some cold weather next 3 or 4 days, some of that cold air reaching NZ next week. Auckland may get its first cold night mid next week.

spwill wrote: ↑Wed 04/05/2022 23:11 Southern parts of Australia catching some cold weather next 3 or 4 days, some of that cold air reaching NZ next week. Auckland may get its first cold night mid next week.

The cold air looks brief before a real warm air mass follows.
Been a great run of mild days, 6 days in a row with 18+ which is far from normal for May

Fog clearing away overnight to become another fine and sunny day with light winds.
Today's maximum was 17.7C.

Richard wrote: ↑Thu 05/05/2022 17:42

spwill wrote: ↑Wed 04/05/2022 23:11 Southern parts of Australia catching some cold weather next 3 or 4 days, some of that cold air reaching NZ next week. Auckland may get its first cold night mid next week.

The cold air looks brief before a real warm air mass follows.
Been a great run of mild days, 6 days in a row with 18+ which is far from normal for May

Day 6 coming up here today with temps ranging from near 0 to 20deg, more like early April than early May only 25mm here in the last 10 weeks so very dry still.

Slowly getting colder in the mornings here… 8C this morning which is the coolest for the year to date

Was wondering just how off the scale it will be if don't get a turnaround in this pattern by the end of this month.
Sure hope it does not happen, but if say only get 20mm for May, then looks like using data for Ruakura from Clifo going back to 1908 that would put this year's April plus May rainfall as a -2.6 sigma event which would be expected int the bottom 0.75% of samples (if bimonthly rainfalls can be assumed to have a 'normal' distribution.)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
This to me is even more freakish than the Jan plus Feb of almost no rain that happened in 2020.

cbm wrote: ↑Fri 06/05/2022 11:49 Was wondering just how off the scale it will be if don't get a turnaround in this pattern by the end of this month.
Sure hope it does not happen, but if say only get 20mm for May, then looks like using data for Ruakura from Clifo going back to 1908 that would put this year's April plus May rainfall as a -2.6 sigma event which would be expected int the bottom 0.75% of samples (if bimonthly rainfalls can be assumed to have a 'normal' distribution.)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
This to me is even more freakish than the Jan plus Feb of almost no rain that happened in 2020.

You should see some rain in the last week of the month.

i know where u live if you are wrong TonyT

Awhituobs wrote: ↑Fri 06/05/2022 12:38 i know where u live if you are wrong TonyT

Or send me a nice bottle if I'm right?

Christchurch has only had 17mm of rain in the last 40 days

According to this MetService tweet, the weather station at Invercargill Airport has just recorded its highest ever May temperature of 21.5°C in a record stretching back to 1948.

Are there any comparable stations in the area with longer records?

https://twitter.com/MetService/status/1 ... 1493176326

Simon Culling wrote: ↑Fri 06/05/2022 20:41 According to this MetService tweet, the weather station at Invercargill Airport has just recorded its highest ever May temperature of 21.5°C in a record stretching back to 1948.

Are there any comparable stations in the area with longer records?

https://twitter.com/MetService/status/1 ... 1493176326

My mum and brother live there. Both have mentioned it's been very unusually warm, dry and sunny for this time of the year following an unsettled and "wet" April (107mm) after the driest March on record (14mm). Maximums from the first of May in running order: 1st 18.2C; 2nd 18.7C; 3rd 20.1C; 4th 19.1C and the fifth 19.8C. They are loving the "warm", by Invercargill standards, weather.

ooohhh. the next high might not be blocking after all and instead might drift north and fade a bit, allowing fronts to move across NZ

Simon Culling wrote: ↑Fri 06/05/2022 20:41 According to this MetService tweet, the weather station at Invercargill Airport has just recorded its highest ever May temperature of 21.5°C in a record stretching back to 1948.

Are there any comparable stations in the area with longer records?

https://twitter.com/MetService/status/1 ... 1493176326

Yes, NIWA has older records for observer sites around Invercargill's current urban/metro area east of the airport from about 1910, with the highest May temp of 21.7C recorded in 1924 (also on May 06) at a nursery on the northern outskirts. However, I think that temp was only read as a whole degree in °F (i.e. 71°F), so could actually be between 21.4°C and 21.9°C. The second highest recorded May temp was 21.1°C (70.0°F) in 1942, 1950 and 1955. NIWA's Invercargill Aero EWS site, which is about 1.2 km SE of MetService's Aero site, also recorded 21.1°C in May 2016, and 21.6°C yesterday.

Winter seems to be getting later each year. I remember when I first moved to South Canterbury 15 years ago we used to get the first ground frosts in March and by Late April we were getting regular air frosts some of them quite heavy. so far this year just one Air frost and a couple of ground frosts. even the days are much warmer, the temperatures feel like late March not early May. That looks to change next week but only for a couple of days then back into the warmer weather again.

Another fine warm day today with some high cloud, 17c.

Beautiful clear sky day here, 9C min 20C max. Temperatures have been very pleasant, every day so far this month 20-21

Our mainly settled weather pattern keeps going, it started back in November.

Thanks for the figures, Nev. That is a warm day for the city bearing in mind the average maximum for November is around 12°C.

To compare this to the UK - your early May would be our early November, and the UK record high for the first week of the month is 22°C at a site in West Wales favoured by fohn conditions in an easterly breeze on that occasion. The date maximums for the UK for the second week of the month drop below 20°C.

Another fine and mild day but with increasing high cloud from the west this afternoon and evening.
Hardly any wind to take note of.
Today's maximum was 19.8C.

I recorded 22.5C on Friday 6th May. Highest maximum since NIWA station opened in January 2006 for a May month

Simon Culling wrote: ↑Sat 07/05/2022 22:16 Thanks for the figures, Nev. That is a warm day for the city bearing in mind the average maximum for November is around 12°C.

Think you mean 12°C is Invercargill's normal Tmax for 'May' (Nov there is around 16°C)...

To compare this to the UK - your early May would be our early November, and the UK record high for the first week of the month is 22°C at a site in West Wales favoured by fohn conditions in an easterly breeze on that occasion. The date maximums for the UK for the second week of the month drop below 20°C.

Not sure what NZ's highest ever national May temp is, but its 3rd highest is 28.3°C recorded at Rangiora last year.
See - NIWA May 2021 National Climate Summary

A day of mid range high cloud from the NW today.
Mild with not much wind. 17.4C for today.
A few spits of rain this afternoon and a shower this evening developed resulting in 0.3mm of rain for today.

A much needed 8 mm shower over night, and as for today, what will the incoming cold pool of air bring?

Yes, some low level moisture/upper level cold air over Canterbury today, something to watch.


A brief spell of below average temps coming up this week and the clear night cooling