UK Weather - Summer 2022

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Simon Culling
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UK Weather - Summer 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

We are now in meteorological summer here in the UK and it is starting in the usual way - somewhat changeable. The extended Jubilee Weekend Celebrations will be mixed weather wise, but yesterday and today (Fri 3rd June) will see most events not unduly troubled by poor weather. It is generally dry and quite warm in the south of the UK (we should see 24°C today), but there are some showers in the north and west. However, there will be a reversal in the weather for the weekend, with high pressure to the north of the UK giving fine, dry and warm weather to the northern half of the UK, but showery or thundery rain looks much more likely for the southern half - and cooler here.

Incidentally, the damp pitch and relatively high humidity made for a bowlers paradise at Lord's yesterday - 17 wickets fell and the match remains evenly balanced. Might be a bit better for the batters today.

The Met Office contingency planners 3 month forecast for summer (summary attached) is basically going for a warmer than average one with around average precipitation. This suggests it might be a bit more thundery than normal. Full details at this link:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/c ... jja-v2.pdf

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Simon Culling
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The first week of June has been on the cool side generally, but not cold, and there have been showers at times. There was a decent spell of thundery weather over the Jubilee weekend, but all of it by-passed Tiverton as is usually the case - I have never lived anywhere else where so little actual 'weather' happens - unless of course, you like rain + drizzle + mist! :yum:

The models are suggesting a continuation of this generally cool theme with rain or showers at times, although average temperatures will not be too far from normal. The only bit of excitement might be the arrival of the remnants of Tropical Storm Alex later this week as a rather vigorous low pressure system (for the time of the year), but this will mostly affect the N + W of Scotland - it might bring a decent warm day to us in the south.

The CET for June was 12.7°C (-1.4°C) up to the 6th and the EWR was 20mm also up to the 6th, which is 28% of the monthly average of 71mm.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2022

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Simon Culling wrote: Wed 08/06/2022 21:08 - I have never lived anywhere else where so little actual 'weather' happens - unless of course, you like rain + drizzle + mist! :yum:
Sounds like "Clagg' to me, Simon ;)
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Simon Culling
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Clagg is a good way of describing some the weather we experience here in the SW of England, John. It is much more prevalent in the colder seasons, but does descend on us at times in the summer.

The Atlantic depression (containing the remnants of ex-tropical Storm Alex) passed to the NW of the UK on Fri/Sat but gave us a couple of breezy days - winds gusted to 50-60mph in Scotland and N Ireland, but not so high for the rest of us. It also brought rather cool weather for the time of the year with some showers for more northern parts. The lowest central pressure of the depression was around 970mb as it moved between Iceland and Scotland - this is not exceptional for June, but definitely on the low side.

We will see an abrupt change in the weather in the next few days as a plume of warm air approaches from the south. The attached figure is the ECMWF forecast 500mb chart for midday on Friday 17th June and shows 850mb temperatures of 20°C+ approaching the south of the UK. Current forecasts suggests surface temperatures of 30-33°C in the SE of England and up to around 28°C for us in the SW. Reality may be a little higher than this - it is very hot over Iberia at the moment and we could see up to 45°C in southern Spain this week.

The trough to the west of the UK looks set to move slowly into the UK at the weekend bringing cooler and potentially quite wet weather.
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Simon Culling
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The warm weather has arrived with a maximum of 28.2°C yesterday (Wednesday) in London - at Kew Gardens. It was not as hot here in the SW of England, but Wednesday was mostly sunny with a max of 23°C in Tiverton - and that's warm enough for me. Some of the models are going for 33-34°C in London tomorrow (Friday) and close to 30°C here in Tiverton as the northern edge of the plume of warm air brushes the SE. However, there seems to be quite a lot of high cloud around - due to a frontal system passing NW near to Scotland - so this may have an impact of the heat. The fine and hot weather will be short-lived as cloud and rain moves in from the west later in the weekend and a small low develops on the front close to southern England - could be quite wet for a while.

The CET for June was 14.0°C (-0.1°C) up to the 14th and the EWR was 26mm also up to the 14th, which is 37% of the monthly average.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

It was a bit of a one day wonder was our 'heatwave', and only enjoyed by the south eastern half of the UK. Highest temperatures recorded on Friday 17th June were:

33.2°C at Maison St Louis ( a June record for the island of Jersey - data dates back to 1894)
32.7°C at Santon Downham (Norfolk) + London Heathrow
32.4°C at Kew Gardens
32.3°C at St James Park
32.0°C at RHS Wisley

Saturday was a much cooler day - around 15°C or so in some places with cloud and thundery rain. Here in Tiverton we did reach 30°C in the sunshine on Friday, but yesterday was mostly cloudy (max 18°C) with showery rain from late afternoon and a little thunder - around 20mm fell into the evening.

The weather will settle down to something more normal for the coming week, with mostly dry and warm days for us in the south.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Just like you are seeing in New Zealand, we have had some spectacular sunsets here in the UK. They occurred this last Saturday (18th June) and were courtesy (mostly) of Saharan dust pushed northward with the plume of hot air that brought our first 'heatwave' of the summer. Despite some rain + thunderstorms, the dust was not sufficiently removed before sunset. This BBC article has quite a few photos - the main colours here in the UK were pinks, oranges and mauves.

Unfortunately, it was pouring with rain here in Tiverton, so we missed the spectacle. :(

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-61856676
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The weather has been better in the last week, especially for those of us in the south, with much of the last week being dry, sunny and fairly warm - the mercury hit 28°C in a few places on both Wednesday + Thursday (22nd/23rd). However, low pressure has become established to the west since then and we are in a showery S/SW flow at the moment, and it is considerably cooler.

We had a thunderstorm yesterday (Sat 25th) afternoon here in Tiverton where I could clearly hear the rumbles of thunder - rather than the normal distant weak rumbles we have become accustomed to. The seven rumbles totalled around the same number for the last 18 months, even though the storm was not overhead. Have to enjoy these fleeting moments when they arrive!

Much of the coming week looks rather showery with temperatures around average. Hopefully the rain will stay away from Headingley so we can see a conclusion to the final Test v New Zealand. Its been a very entertaining series.

The CET for June was 14.8°C (+0.7°C) up to the 24th and the EWR was 36mm also up to the 24th, which is 52% of the monthly average.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The showery weather has persisted for the last few days and it has not been very warm here on the west side of the UK - today (Wednesday 29th June) we only managed 18°C in-between the showers here in Tiverton. Far less showers and a lot more sunshine this week in the east has given them pleasant weather with the temperature into the low twenties. However, the east is getting some needed rain this evening.

The longer term forecast for next week suggests a build of pressure and a return to warmer and drier weather, although not heatwave conditions. Most of the 30-day forecasts for the month of July are going for a much warmer and drier than average month, but we shall see - I am not convinced.

The three test matches against New Zealand were very exciting, but I am not sure that if we bat that way against India in the one-off test starting on Friday at Edgbaston, we will not just get blown away. England seem to want to play 20-20 cricket now in test matches, but a harsh lesson is, I think, just around the corner. At least the weather will improve as the game progresses. ;-)
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The showery and rather cool weather has continued and we had a little more thunder here in Tiverton last Thursday - that makes 5 days so far this year, which is double last years effort. Maximum temperatures here in the SW have only been 18°C for the last three days.

High pressure is now building from the SW and we look to be heading to a drier and much warmer outlook for the next two weeks, especially here in the south. The longer range output (beyond 10 days) is quite concerning as most of the models are showing a very hot period for much of western Europe. Indeed, current output suggests 40°C as a maximum for the UK the weekend after next - 16th/17th July. I appreciate this is a long way off, but the signal has been there for a number of days and is consistent. Lets hope they are wrong as that sort of heat would be problematic.

The final CET and EWR figures for June have not yet been published, but the Met Office summary shows we had a warmer, drier and sunnier than average month and that June continued the run of warmer than average months this year. In fast, the last cooler than average month was August 2021.

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2022/07/0 ... rm-months/
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2022

Unread post by cbm »

It's only model output but the GFS has been going nuclear for heat in the SE UK ( and Europe) for a few days now. It's now close enough and presumably represented enough in the ensemble to make the windy app. Times shown are NZST which is why looks funny.Image

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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Thanks for the chart, cbm. These ridiculous figures have been in the model output for over a week now and we have only a week to go - I am guessing the contingency planners are getting concerned about this. The official forecasters are hedging their bets beyond midweek as we do expect a temporary slight cooldown after 30°C+ from today (Sunday 10th July) until Tuesday, but the real heat will probably be advected north from Friday onwards. I, like many, hope the model output is too bullish as this sort of heat will be dangerous for the health for some, particularly the elderly - and I am getting into this category nowadays!! 8-o

It has been getting warmer for a few days now - recent UK highs have been:

Thursday 8th July - 25.8°C at RAF Topcliffe (Yorkshire)
Friday 9th July - 29.3°C at Teddington Bushy Park
Saturday 10th July - 27.5°C at London Heathrow + Gosport Fleetlands (Hampshire coast)

Today (Sunday 10th July) it is sunny over most of the UK and we will likely see our first 30°C maximum of the month.

The CET for July was 15.6°C (-0.4°C) up to the 8th and the EWR was 4mm also up to the 8th, which is just 6% of the monthly total of 72mm. It has been a cool start to July (until the last few days) with some chilly nights.

The final CET for June was 14.9°C (+0.8°C) and the EWR was 50mm, which is 71% of the monthly average.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2022

Unread post by cbm »

Simon Culling wrote: Sun 10/07/2022 22:41 Thanks for the chart, cbm. These ridiculous figures have been in the model output for over a week now and we have only a week to go - I am guessing the contingency planners are getting concerned about this.
Yes, such an event will be a dangerous adverse weather event if it occurs.
See that UK Met office are taking it seriously now.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/p ... ing-issued

While GFS has backed off a bit from the ridiculous numbers going up to 45C , it seems like something severe enough to threaten the UK all time record and still be quite dangerous is quite likely now.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Indeed, cbm, I do not recall having seen a weather warning in the UK for extreme heat in the past, so the Met Office must be getting confident it will be happening. Here in Tiverton in the SW of the UK, we should be a few degrees cooler, but it is still going to be hot and uncomfortable.

The Met Office also produce a Heat-Health Alert service in conjunction with the UK Health Security Agency and that is at Level 3 (out of 4) for the current week. I wonder if we will see a Level 4 issued (national emergency) for this coming Sunday/Monday?

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/wea ... son=normal

It has continued warming up over the last couple of days and these are the recent UK maximums:

Sunday 10th July - 30.1°C at St James Park
Monday 11th July - 32.0°C at RAF Northolt

An equally funny but worrying note is that the figures from Kew Gardens in London (which is often one of the UK hotspots) have been discounted for the last couple of weeks because the stage for the recent series of music concerts in Hyde Park was built right next to the meteorological enclosure. The concerts have now ended, so hopefully it will be back running correctly by this weekend.
Last edited by Simon Culling on Wed 13/07/2022 02:47, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2022

Unread post by spwill »

Temperatures around the mid 30s for parts of southern England on Monday and Tuesday next week ? see how the models look next few days
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Indeed, spwill. The heat remains firmly in the model predictions and we are now only 5 days away. A lot will depend on the exact position of the warm plume extending northwards from Iberia/France and the track of the low in Biscay.

Recent UK maximum temperatures have been:

Tuesday 12th July - 33.2°C at Maison St Louis (Jersey) or 31.7°C at RHS Wisley (on the mainland, just south of London)
Wednesday 13th July - 30.1°C at Gosport Fleetlands (on the south coast of Hampshire)

The Met Office are hedging their bets a bit, but are sort of going for 'mid-high thirties' on Monday. Current UK record is 38.7°C recorded at Cambridge Botanic Gardens on 25th July 2019.

See this Met Office video update:

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/15 ... 5835400194
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The Met Office have firmed up on their forecast for the beginning of next week and are openly talking about 40°C being reached in England. They have issued a red extreme heat warning for Monday + Tuesday:

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/15 ... 8832270337

The Heat-Health Alert has been raised to Level 4 which is described as a 'National Emergency'.

Not looking forward to the heat - up to perhaps 37°C down here in the SW. That is at least 10°C too hot. 8)

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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

After a couple of slightly cooler days on Thurs/Fri, it has been getting warmer over the weekend and the temperature reached over 30°C in many parts of England + Wales today (Sunday 17th July) with a top temperature of 33.0°C recorded at Hawarden Airfield, which is just inside the far NE tip of Wales. In the south, quite a lot of Ac Cast developed during the early evening and a few thunderstorms (elevated) have cropped up and this may leave a residue of cloud tomorrow morning which might restrict the temperature rise - the very warm air aloft is now arriving in the UK overnight into Monday. The Met Office are going for 40/41°C on both Monday + Tuesday.

The Ac Cast developed here in Tiverton from around 5:30pm and some substantial towers went up in the early evening - indeed, one of them glaciated and produced a shower to my SE. We also had a fantastic display of crepuscular rays that lasted nearly an hour between 8pm and 9pm as the sun was persistently behind patches of the Ac - see attached photo taken just before 9pm and looking west.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The provisional maximum from the synoptic + climate sites for Monday 18th July, is 38.2°C at Santon Downham in the county of Norfolk. Therefore no new UK national record today, but Wales broke its national record by 2°C with a high of 37.1°C at Hawarden Airfield. The 09-09Z sites will not read the thermometer until tomorrow morning, so it is still possible. The Met Office are still going for 40°C tomorrow in eastern England - and that will be after a very warm night to come for most of us.

It was not quite so warm in central Devon today as we had the residual cloud form the previous evenings showers this morning which did not clear until noon. We still managed to get to 32°C here in Tiverton in the afternoon sunshine which is hot enough for me. It is still 30°C here as we approach 8pm and in London it is still 34-35°C.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2022

Unread post by spwill »

UK with its warmest night on record. Temperatures already in the low thirties for some locations before 10am today.

I see the West Country will be cooler this afternoon but still humid,dewpoint temperature around 17-18C with some showers. There is not much instability showing in the GFS model but one or two thunderstorms are occuring currently in the far west.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

A brief update on an historic weather day for the UK. 34 Met Office weather stations exceeded the previous UK national record, with six reaching 40.0°C or higher. The highest reported temperature (so far) is 40.3°C at RAF Coningsby, which is in Lincolnshire.

Unfortunately there have been numerous wild fires and what looks to be a very significant one in Wennington, which is a suburb of east London, where a number of houses have been badly damaged.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2022

Unread post by Awhituobs »

crazy!
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2022

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

unreal. I noticed the Irish times commenting on "how unusual to have bright sunshine and temperatures of up to 33C instead of spending so much of the year encased in a cool grey murk". <3
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2022

Unread post by spwill »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: Wed 20/07/2022 13:43 unreal. I noticed the Irish times commenting on "how unusual to have bright sunshine and temperatures of up to 33C instead of spending so much of the year encased in a cool grey murk". <3
My memory of hot weather in London is there was usually quite a bit of haze. The cleaner blue skies came in with the fresher westerly weather. Possibly clean skies added to the heating Monday and Tuesday?
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The hazy sky comes from pollution imported from Europe on the S/SE winds of the plume of warm air and this was the case this week. It probably does have a marginal effect on reducing the warming, however, in this case the air was just exceptionally warm - the 850mb temperature was around 23/24°C during Tuesday.

The stations that recorded 40°C or more on Tuesday 19th July 2022 were:

40.3°C at RAF Coningsby (Lincolnshire)
40.2°C at London Heathrow, St James Park + Pitsford (Northamptonshire)
40.1°C at Kew Gardens + Gringley-on-the-Hill (Nottinghamshire)
40.0°C at RAF Northolt

At least 12 other stations recorded a rounded up 40°C. Note that the 40.3°C recorded at RAF Waddington (Lincs) was discounted by the Met Office due to issues with the upkeep of land around the met enclosure.

The grass fires had a devastating effect on some peoples lives with at least 41 homes destroyed in Greater London and at least 6 others in a fire in Barnsley, South Yorkshire. Damage to property on this scale is unheard of in the UK.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62232654

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-62236018
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