Major Cold System 10-15th June.

[Richard]

What I see coming up for my area is a lot of spillover rainfall with cold winds from the west.

Yes, and probably some thunder and hail also.

That would be good to have some thunder, hail? cant ever remember hail from spillover showers

[Lawrence]

A long way off, but would be interesting if the low ends up further North and sits off the east coast for a while. Personally giving consideration that we are overdue a 1 in 10 event and possibly a one in fifty if my research is correct.We could possibly be in for a major event some time this winter.

[darcyplumb]

A long way off, but would be interesting if the low ends up further North and sits off the east coast for a while. Personally giving consideration that we are overdue a 1 in 10 event and possibly a one in fifty if my research is correct.We could possibly be in for a major event some time this winter.

You’re not wrong about being overdue. 2011 was the last decent snowfall in Ashburton. My eldest child is 5 today and has never seen snow settle on the ground at home. We’ve had plenty of visits to Methven and surrounds to make up for that.

[Dean.]

A long way off, but would be interesting if the low ends up further North and sits off the east coast for a while. Personally giving consideration that we are overdue a 1 in 10 event and possibly a one in fifty if my research is correct.We could possibly be in for a major event some time this winter.

You’re not wrong about being overdue. 2011 was the last decent snowfall in Ashburton. My eldest child is 5 today and has never seen snow settle on the ground at home. We’ve had plenty of visits to Methven and surrounds to make up for that.

We had 5-7 cms in 2016

FB_IMG_1654468976343.jpg

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In Allenton

[Awhituobs]

could be damaging severe SW gales for upper NI

[darcyplumb]

You’re not wrong about being overdue. 2011 was the last decent snowfall in Ashburton. My eldest child is 5 today and has never seen snow settle on the ground at home. We’ve had plenty of visits to Methven and surrounds to make up for that.

We had 5-7 cms in 2016FB_IMG_1654468976343.jpg

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In Allenton

I remember that. We are on the other side of town and had hardly any. We drove to the top of Allenton and found the snow!

[Lawrence]

A long way off, but would be interesting if the low ends up further North and sits off the east coast for a while. Personally giving consideration that we are overdue a 1 in 10 event and possibly a one in fifty if my research is correct.We could possibly be in for a major event some time this winter.

You’re not wrong about being overdue. 2011 was the last decent snowfall in Ashburton. My eldest child is 5 today and has never seen snow settle on the ground at home. We’ve had plenty of visits to Methven and surrounds to make up for that.

Remember it well,and Rolleston is only 50m above sea level.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I remember this as well at West Melton. Couldn't get to work because of large snow drifts up against the garage doors.
When cleared couldn't get the truck up the drive through the snow as it was very light in the back and the wheels kept on spinning.

[Bradley]

I remember this as well at West Melton. Couldn't get to work because of large snow drifts up against the garage doors.
When cleared couldn't get the truck up the drive through the snow as it was very light in the back and the wheels kept on spinning.

Around 18cm fell reading your old West Melton daily weather summaries - I was always disappointed that you weren’t there for the June 5th 2012 event, was interested to see what depth of snow West Melton recorded!

[Storm Struck]

Kia Ora team
Been some time since my last posting hope everyone is well.
This system has caught my eye for about the last 5 days now, quite the significant sub antarctic low on quite a wide scale.
If we look at such systems we may have to go back some time, however in terms of a shift in isobaric tradejctions is all it could take for this to be a prolonged icy antarctic blast for not just the lower South Island but most of the country.
We are still 4 days out until the first cold wave comes through bringing lowering snow levels through the high country and alpine passes, although I suspect this might start from Friday above 600m.
Something else I've noticed the last 2 days in the surface maps is a potential low crossing over Canterbury to sit off Banks Peninsula on Sunday night, in the past we have seen brief low level snowfalls due to simular set ups where deep convection forms on converging winds.
Current 500mb, 700mb and 850mb are certainly cold but only indicative of a freezing level around 300m for Canterbury, however deep convection dynamics can change this.
One to watch
Either way it's going to get progressively colder throughout the week.

[moylanr]

You’re not wrong about being overdue. 2011 was the last decent snowfall in Ashburton. My eldest child is 5 today and has never seen snow settle on the ground at home. We’ve had plenty of visits to Methven and surrounds to make up for that.

Remember it well,and Rolleston is only 50m above sea level.

25 July 2011 I was staying in Motueka so missed the ‘icing on the quake’ in Christchurch but there was snow by the road to Nelson (behind Ruby Bay) which the locals said hadn’t happened for 30 years. Power load in Canterbury up to 575MW. Highest since 6 June 2006 despite no CBD due to red zoned.

15 Aug 2011 businesses closed, buses stopped. 17 Aug new record power load of 632MW still without the ~50MW of CBD!

Unmatched until 9 Aug 2021. Not significant weather- I could say 1 in 10 event but that’s just a guess. 672MW. That’s with ~30,000 more customer connections incl a CBD.

What will the load get to this winter is a $64,000/MW question! There’s ~2000 more connections since Aug 2011 which is ~4MW - ~10MW.

[samjames.tv]

I remember this! Heavy snow on the Riwaka - Marahau road saddle. Haven't seen anything like it since.

25 July 2011 I was staying in Motueka so missed the ‘icing on the quake’ in Christchurch but there was snow by the road to Nelson (behind Ruby Bay) which the locals said hadn’t happened for 30 years. Power load in Canterbury up to 575MW. Highest since 6 June 2006 despite no CBD due to red zoned.

[mikestormchaser]

Nice to remember the good snow days of the past. Been well over due for that. And it will happen again, just haven't had those complex weather systems to generate such events for Canterbury.
This system this weekend is nothing out of the ordinary for winter, southland and inland otago and south Canterbury will cop the brunt. Almost a Westerly for the rest of the upper south island.

[Richard]

Often in the past winters SW showers tend to leave the land and head out to sea near Palmerston, being near the bottom end of the ranges that run back up towards Naseby and cold soil conditions further north, this steers cold SW more WSW, while more to the south on the West coast side. South Canterbury can be quite sheltered during these wind patterns

[TonyT]

Often in the past winters SW showers tend to leave the land and head out to sea near Palmerston, being near the bottom end of the ranges that run back up towards Naseby and cold soil conditions further north, this steers cold SW more WSW, while more to the south on the West coast side. South Canterbury can be quite sheltered during these wind patterns

And that's a very likely scenario for 90% of this next cold period. Its the 10% during Monday that's more interesting...

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

We will be up in the Wellington region for 2 weeks from the 9th so will miss much of this snow activity, if it eventuates.

[Razor]

I get the feeling that those of us in Chch will be asking wheres winter in 2 weeks time, while the south and west may be asking when will it be over.

On the Tranzalpine for mates birthday on Saturday to Arthur's Pass, could be fun!

[harveyt86]

Might not be much cop for eastern areas as it stands but looking likely to load up many of the ski fields (sorry Mt Hutt) for the season.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

On the Tranzalpine for mates birthday on Saturday to Arthur's Pass, could be fun!

Used to drive that train many years ago. Have a good trip

[talbotmj15]

Mt Hutt delaying there opening day of the 10th June due to lack of snow.

[Richard]

Might not be much cop for eastern areas as it stands but looking likely to load up many of the ski fields (sorry Mt Hutt) for the season.

Mt Hutt should get plenty of spill over, even the most easterly field Mt Lyford should get a nice dump

[Dean.]

Might not be much cop for eastern areas as it stands but looking likely to load up many of the ski fields (sorry Mt Hutt) for the season.

Mt Hutt should get plenty of spill over, even the most easterly field Mt Lyford should get a nice dump

Yes I see at least 30cm for Mt Hutt

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[spwill]

The event has been looking less impressive but still good for Mnt snow, cold air struggling to come north.

[mikestormchaser]

The event has been looking less impressive but still good for Mnt snow, cold air struggling to come north.

Yes the cold air has certainly down trended in the last few runs. Not an event to be jumping up and down at.
I would like to see a good dump of snow in the tekapo/ mount cook region though, as I'd like to get back down that way for some hikes. Absolutely stunning in winter

[spwill]

The event has been looking less impressive but still good for Mnt snow, cold air struggling to come north.

Yes the cold air has certainly down trended in the last few runs. Not an event to be jumping up and down at.
I would like to see a good dump of snow in the tekapo/ mount cook region though, as I'd like to get back down that way for some hikes. Absolutely stunning in winter

The Glentanner to Hermitage area is stunning.
See how the models trend for early /mid next week, currently the very cold air is not far away.