Low Pressure Systems 5- 13 July

Archive of NZ Weather & Climate
Razor
Moderator
Posts: 5121
Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
Location: Halswell, Christchurch
Has thanked: 717 times
Been thanked: 923 times

Low Pressure Systems 5- 13 July

Unread post by Razor »

Thought I'd start a new thread with some interesting modelling suggesting action weather "accross the motu" in the coming week.

It is hard not to see some big snow somewhere in the mix
Christchurch Rocks
Razor
Moderator
Posts: 5121
Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
Location: Halswell, Christchurch
Has thanked: 717 times
Been thanked: 923 times

Re: Low Pressure Systems 5- 13 July

Unread post by Razor »

Metservice long range...
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Christchurch Rocks
Razor
Moderator
Posts: 5121
Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
Location: Halswell, Christchurch
Has thanked: 717 times
Been thanked: 923 times

Re: Low Pressure Systems 5- 13 July

Unread post by Razor »

Warm advection snow inland on Thursday night into Friday? Thoughts?
Christchurch Rocks
User avatar
TonyT
Moderator
Posts: 2878
Joined: Thu 08/05/2003 11:09
Location: Amberley, North Canterbury
Has thanked: 352 times
Been thanked: 1146 times

Re: Low Pressure Systems 5- 13 July

Unread post by TonyT »

Razor wrote: Wed 06/07/2022 09:39 Warm advection snow inland on Thursday night into Friday? Thoughts?
Yes, its been in the guidance for many days, but only at higher levels.
spwill
Posts: 9907
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland
Has thanked: 839 times
Been thanked: 866 times

Re: Low Pressure Systems 5- 13 July

Unread post by spwill »

Perhaps some locally low snow levels for Mackenzie Basin through to Wanaka /Qtwn area early Friday? GFS shows warming through the day. Colder air coming back in Sat.
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 8369
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1656 times
Been thanked: 800 times

Re: Low Pressure Systems 5- 13 July

Unread post by Richard »

Going to be in Westport Friday afternoon till Saturday morning, looking like we might be in the thunder fun zone there.
spwill
Posts: 9907
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland
Has thanked: 839 times
Been thanked: 866 times

Re: Low Pressure Systems 5- 13 July

Unread post by spwill »

Cold temperatures for inland South Canterbury and Otago today, maximums around 2-3C for Alexandra, Qtwn, Wanaka, Omarama and Twizel.
tich
Posts: 3467
Joined: Sat 15/03/2003 18:32
Location: Christchurch (St Albans)/Akaroa
Has thanked: 21 times
Been thanked: 91 times

Re: Low Pressure Systems 5- 13 July

Unread post by tich »

spwill wrote: Thu 07/07/2022 20:05 Cold temperatures for inland South Canterbury and Otago today, maximums around 2-3C for Alexandra, Qtwn, Wanaka, Omarama and Twizel.
Near or only just above freezing in those areas on latest Metservice obs. Should easily turn to snow there once significant precipitation arrives. (looks like drizzle on radar over central South island - light drizzle in Chch this evening)
Andy
Posts: 1424
Joined: Tue 27/05/2003 14:15
Location: Alexandra
Has thanked: 131 times
Been thanked: 63 times

Re: Low Pressure Systems 5- 13 July

Unread post by Andy »

Snow falling and settling in Alexandra now.
Awhituobs
Posts: 2256
Joined: Tue 10/09/2019 07:20
Location: Waiuku
Has thanked: 706 times
Been thanked: 556 times
Contact:

Re: Low Pressure Systems 5- 13 July

Unread post by Awhituobs »

another nearly 40mm (on top of the 40mm from the last system) here
another warm night here too (15c here currently)
spwill
Posts: 9907
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland
Has thanked: 839 times
Been thanked: 866 times

Re: Low Pressure Systems 5- 13 July

Unread post by spwill »

Queenstown currently on 5C with rain, Alexandra 0C with snow.

30mm here overnight
jamie
Posts: 5907
Joined: Fri 25/02/2011 21:35
Location: Hamilton NZ
Has thanked: 22 times
Been thanked: 273 times
Contact:

Re: Low Pressure Systems 5- 13 July

Unread post by jamie »

Getting wet now with just on 400mm in the past 6 weeks.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
wembley
Posts: 149
Joined: Fri 22/03/2013 11:18
Location: Cromwell
Has thanked: 8 times
Been thanked: 23 times

Re: Low Pressure Systems 5- 13 July

Unread post by wembley »

Metservice said yesterday snow would fall higher up not down to 200m
darcyplumb
Posts: 760
Joined: Sun 06/12/2020 20:15
Location: Ashburton
Has thanked: 1576 times
Been thanked: 404 times

Re: Low Pressure Systems 5- 13 July

Unread post by darcyplumb »

wembley wrote: Fri 08/07/2022 09:13 Metservice said yesterday snow would fall higher up not down to 200m
Warm advection snow can be difficult to forecast. The slightest change in the surface temperature can make a big difference.
Awhituobs
Posts: 2256
Joined: Tue 10/09/2019 07:20
Location: Waiuku
Has thanked: 706 times
Been thanked: 556 times
Contact:

Re: Low Pressure Systems 5- 13 July

Unread post by Awhituobs »

nearly 17c here with this Northerly flow
amazing
I see its nearly 19c in the far north currently
with a high of 20c forecasted for Whangarei
spwill
Posts: 9907
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland
Has thanked: 839 times
Been thanked: 866 times

Re: Low Pressure Systems 5- 13 July

Unread post by spwill »

Some wet snow at Cromwell at 212m
jamie
Posts: 5907
Joined: Fri 25/02/2011 21:35
Location: Hamilton NZ
Has thanked: 22 times
Been thanked: 273 times
Contact:

Re: Low Pressure Systems 5- 13 July

Unread post by jamie »

17C dew point here in July is bonkers. Up to 19.1 air temp today.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
darcyplumb
Posts: 760
Joined: Sun 06/12/2020 20:15
Location: Ashburton
Has thanked: 1576 times
Been thanked: 404 times

Re: Low Pressure Systems 5- 13 July

Unread post by darcyplumb »

I’d love to know people’s thoughts on the next low due early next week. The click baiters are reporting over 100mm for the Canterbury plains and coast Monday night into Tuesday. It’s hard not to be alarmed when you see information like that.
User avatar
David
Posts: 7578
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 416 times
Been thanked: 825 times
Contact:

Re: Low Pressure Systems 5- 13 July

Unread post by David »

24mm on my weather station since 4pm until this morning, 30mm in the manual gauge
Image
Razor
Moderator
Posts: 5121
Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
Location: Halswell, Christchurch
Has thanked: 717 times
Been thanked: 923 times

Re: Low Pressure Systems 5- 13 July

Unread post by Razor »

darcyplumb wrote: Fri 08/07/2022 12:03 I’d love to know people’s thoughts on the next low due early next week. The click baiters are reporting over 100mm for the Canterbury plains and coast Monday night into Tuesday. It’s hard not to be alarmed when you see information like that.
Its just that this far out- click bait I would think.

The model ranges seem to be more like 20-50mm on Tuesday at this early juncture. Wind looks quite interesting. I'm keeping an eye on it with on of my kids planning a tramp to Rod Donald Hut that day.
Christchurch Rocks
User avatar
David
Posts: 7578
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 416 times
Been thanked: 825 times
Contact:

Re: Low Pressure Systems 5- 13 July

Unread post by David »

Just reached 18.9C. New July record for me, former record being 18.7 in 2014
Image
darcyplumb
Posts: 760
Joined: Sun 06/12/2020 20:15
Location: Ashburton
Has thanked: 1576 times
Been thanked: 404 times

Re: Low Pressure Systems 5- 13 July

Unread post by darcyplumb »

Razor wrote: Fri 08/07/2022 12:36
darcyplumb wrote: Fri 08/07/2022 12:03 I’d love to know people’s thoughts on the next low due early next week. The click baiters are reporting over 100mm for the Canterbury plains and coast Monday night into Tuesday. It’s hard not to be alarmed when you see information like that.
Its just that this far out- click bait I would think.

The model ranges seem to be more like 20-50mm on Tuesday at this early juncture. Wind looks quite interesting. I'm keeping an eye on it with on of my kids planning a tramp to Rod Donald Hut that day.
Thanks for the reassurance. I’ll keep an eye on it and see what happens closer to the time.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6216
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf
Has thanked: 468 times
Been thanked: 1064 times

Re: Low Pressure Systems 5- 13 July

Unread post by Nev »

Think Auckland Aero's previous July record was 19.1C on July 18 last year.

https://twitter.com/MetService/status/1 ... C72fEqAAAA
Awhituobs
Posts: 2256
Joined: Tue 10/09/2019 07:20
Location: Waiuku
Has thanked: 706 times
Been thanked: 556 times
Contact:

Re: Low Pressure Systems 5- 13 July

Unread post by Awhituobs »

we got to 19.3 here just before a wind change to the NW
soil temperature now 13.9c!

I see you got to 19.7c David! (and same for Ricky!)
ricky
Posts: 1054
Joined: Sun 28/09/2003 21:27
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 488 times
Been thanked: 40 times
Contact:

Re: Low Pressure Systems 5- 13 July

Unread post by ricky »

With a dew point near 18c as well! Also 10cm soil temp is nudging 15c
Image
Locked