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Re: Cold easterly airflow 7th - 12th Aug

Posted: Fri 05/08/2022 07:14
by Razor
GFS looks to be backing off the moisture for chch beyond monday

EDIT- on the flipside GFS does seem to be interested in snow on the ground late Sunday night/ Monday for a spell or 2

Re: Cold easterly airflow 7th - 12th Aug

Posted: Sat 06/08/2022 11:08
by Razor
Another day with things pretty scaled back on most of the models compared to earlier in the week. As Tony alluded to yesterday, it all looks to be nuisance value rather than severe

Re: Cold easterly airflow 7th - 12th Aug

Posted: Sat 06/08/2022 12:01
by Dean.
Metservice forecasting snow to 100 metres on the Canterbury plains rural forecast...will probably see a few flakes here at 109 metres on the west side of town

Re: Cold easterly airflow 7th - 12th Aug

Posted: Sat 06/08/2022 12:02
by TonyT
Looking colder and colder for Chch but with less and less precipitation. Almost as cold inland, and much wetter.

Re: Cold easterly airflow 7th - 12th Aug

Posted: Sat 06/08/2022 13:13
by Awhituobs
the clash between the cold easterly and warmer NE , somewhere e.g Taranaki, could result in CB,s?

Re: Cold easterly airflow 7th - 12th Aug

Posted: Sat 06/08/2022 19:19
by Lawrence
Storm Struck wrote: Thu 04/08/2022 13:27 Can someone be kind enough to explain abit more behind how snow to sea level works in a E-SE flow? Some models are not quite picking this with warm upper air and warm mid layers too which can often help with advection prediction outputs.
I do remember perhaps around 2007 we had a day that was particularly cold with a SE flow, that was bringing in showers and snow to 200m. For about half an hour it was grappling/ hail with enough to settle as well.
So these sort of set ups can happen.
An active period once again from tomorrow onwards, the water tables have gone nowhere so any extra rain is going to cause further issues.
I will get a few photos of my work to share.
I always have my own rule of South easterly flow, low to the east and 522 line for sea level. _b

Re: Cold easterly airflow 7th - 12th Aug

Posted: Sat 06/08/2022 19:40
by Bradley
Yeah and this event is a 526 thickness at best..

Re: Cold easterly airflow 7th - 12th Aug

Posted: Sat 06/08/2022 20:34
by Razor
Metservice has a mostly dry week for Chch after tomorrow night now.

Re: Cold easterly airflow 7th - 12th Aug

Posted: Sat 06/08/2022 21:32
by Storm Struck
Yes it's very much a tomorrow night into early Monday situation, with just brief periods of showers on and off through Tuesday to Thursday. Probably no more than a few hours in-between just cloudy weather.
I do like the latest 700mb Temperatures for overnight tomorrow of -18c in line with -7c on the 850mb, although won't be too much is something which is somewhat more exciting than rain.
Interesting to see the old pine tree at Hagley Park north fell today onto Harper Avenue, managed to crush a few parked cars.
The soft soils from all the rain we've had would be the culprit, there was no high winds in the city today.

Re: Cold easterly airflow 7th - 12th Aug

Posted: Sat 06/08/2022 22:55
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Storm Struck wrote: Sat 06/08/2022 21:32 Interesting to see the old pine tree at Hagley Park north fell today onto Harper Avenue, managed to crush a few parked cars.
The soft soils from all the rain we've had would be the culprit, there was no high winds in the city today.
Something like happened in McKenzie Pack in Geraldine recently. Soft soils. Luckily there was no cars parked around the tree when it came down.
One advantage of that happening, managed to get a few bags of pinecones for the fire from this happening.
Interesting to see how long this cold weather will impact us from tomorrow. Models showing it not as severe as originally it was supposed to be.
Maybe a white covering on the lawn on Monday morning?

Re: Cold easterly airflow 7th - 12th Aug

Posted: Sun 07/08/2022 12:13
by Orion
Southerly wind change has just arrived.
13.3°C here, for now...

Re: Cold easterly airflow 7th - 12th Aug

Posted: Sun 07/08/2022 12:37
by Tracy Herbert
It’s 8 degrees and grey overcast now in Ashburton

Re: Cold easterly airflow 7th - 12th Aug

Posted: Sun 07/08/2022 13:10
by JP.
17c and beautiful sunshine and still winds in ChCh city. Going to do some errands before it packs it in soon.

Re: Cold easterly airflow 7th - 12th Aug

Posted: Sun 07/08/2022 13:30
by mikestormchaser
Beautiful day so far. Taken a nice walk up rapaki track today. No wind at all up here but I can see the overcast conditions towards ashburton. Glad I took the opportunity to get out today before it turns cold and rain this afternoon

Re: Cold easterly airflow 7th - 12th Aug

Posted: Sun 07/08/2022 13:37
by Richard
Been steady wind all morning here and starting to cloud over.

Re: Cold easterly airflow 7th - 12th Aug

Posted: Sun 07/08/2022 13:42
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Southerly through here around 1130am. Nice in the sun earlier on. Now coming onto rain from the west.

Re: Cold easterly airflow 7th - 12th Aug

Posted: Sun 07/08/2022 14:08
by JP.
JP. wrote: Sun 07/08/2022 13:10 17c and beautiful sunshine and still winds in ChCh city. Going to do some errands before it packs it in soon.
South westerly just hit the city. Very gusty and the temps already dropped 6c to 11c.

Re: Cold easterly airflow 7th - 12th Aug

Posted: Sun 07/08/2022 14:43
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
A bit of sleet with the rain now. Down to 4C. Wind seemed to of died down a bit.

Re: Cold easterly airflow 7th - 12th Aug

Posted: Sun 07/08/2022 14:57
by Bradley
EC had 850hpa temps of -8C for Christchurch for 18 hours from Sunday night to Monday with yesterdays run and with the latest model run it only has it for 6 hours at -8C 850hpa so it seems snow to sea level just got alot harder…

Re: Cold easterly airflow 7th - 12th Aug

Posted: Sun 07/08/2022 15:08
by Orion
My Westerfield Spy just reported, "They're blodging on the windscreen"

Now 5.7°C in Ashburton.

Re: Cold easterly airflow 7th - 12th Aug

Posted: Sun 07/08/2022 15:30
by Orion
My Westerfield Spy: "Proper fluttering down now"

Now 4.9°C in Ashburton. Raining...

Re: Cold easterly airflow 7th - 12th Aug

Posted: Sun 07/08/2022 16:23
by Razor
Pretty intense drenching rainfall in Halswell the past half hour. We don't want too much of this

Re: Cold easterly airflow 7th - 12th Aug

Posted: Sun 07/08/2022 16:25
by MoorfNZ
Snowing in Sheffield at 300m asl

Re: Cold easterly airflow 7th - 12th Aug

Posted: Sun 07/08/2022 16:30
by Lawrence
Got to a lovely warm 17.6 °C today until around 12:30,then it turned Southerly and the wind picked up. Presently 3.9°C now and very gusty.Mainly moderate rain at the moment.Will be interesting what happens when we get down to 1°....if we do. :-k

Re: Cold easterly airflow 7th - 12th Aug

Posted: Sun 07/08/2022 16:56
by Lawrence
Just starting to sleet here now. Temperature just hit 2°C but feels like -1.3. \:D/