UK Weather - Autumn 2022

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Simon Culling
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UK Weather - Autumn 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The change of the month has brought us into meteorological Autumn and we look to have a change in the weather coming - away from the dry and settled conditions to something more unsettled. After a long dry spell I suppose it is only logical that it will be wet for a period to take the statistics back to near average!!

Today, Thursday 1st September is rather cloudy in Tiverton, but it feels rather muggy at 20°C. We are expecting a few showers later in the afternoon and into the evening, but not very much is visible on the radar at the moment.

The Met Office Contingency Planners forecast for the the coming autumn (see link below) is going for an average season in terms of temperature + rainfall, but with the caveat that the SE half of the UK may be drier than average - and a tad warmer than average. These are forecasts in their infancy, but at least they have the guts to publish them.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/c ... son-v2.pdf
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

It has become a lot more unsettled in the last couple of days as a low pressure system has developed and got rather stuck out to our W/SW. Bands of heavy rain and showers are circulating around this low and sending pulses of precipitation across western and central parts of the UK. The east is getting showery rain and it remains very muggy and warm over much of the UK - it was 20°C today (Sun 4th Sept) in Tiverton despite being cloudy with rain at times - which has become heavy and persistent this evening.

The low pressure will slowly move towards the UK in the next couple of days and slowly fill as it crosses the south later in the week. This will maintain the showery weather and we will eventually lose the muggy airmass and have it replaced by something a little fresher and more autumnal. By the end of the week we will be casting an eye westwards to see what is happening to ex-hurricane Danielle as it will be in mid-Atlantic by then and moving this way. Some of the model predictions are ridiculous, but we said that about the 40°C heatwave!!!
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The unsettled weather has continued with quite a lot of rain over most of the UK in the last week - although parts of eastern England have not seen very much. It has remained on the mild side with mostly a S or SW feed of air over the UK. Indeed, today (Mon 12th Sept) we could see 27°C reached in the SE and especially in the London area. This waft of southerlies is courtesy of ex-Hurricane Danielle which has become a normal temperate latitude depression and got stuck just to the west of Iberia.

High pressure is now building from the west and we will see a much drier spell of weather this week and as the winds gradually move round to the NW, it will become cooler by the end of the week with the threat of a local ground frost.

The CET for September was 17.6°C (+4.0°C) up to the 10th, and the EWR was 49mm also up to the 10th which is 64% of the monthly average of 76mm. The very high temperature anomaly will fall steadily this week.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The temperature reached 27.2°C at St James Park in London on Monday (13th Sept), but that was the last of the very warm weather as it has turned quite a bit cooler in the last few days. With the change in temperature has come a change in the weather type to much drier conditions in the NW breeze - just a few showers near eastern and north eastern coasts of both Scotland + England. This much cooler and drier weather will continue through the weekend and into next week. We will see the first frosts of the autumn in more sheltered places.

The CET for September was 17.1°C (+3.5°C) up to the 14th and the EWR was 57mm which is 74% of the monthly average.

A bright fireball was seen across much of the northern half of the UK at around 10pm on Wednesday evening - it was a little brighter than the full moon. Initially, it was thought to be space debris, but has now officially been classified as a meteor. Unfortunately, anything that survived to the surface will have landed in the sea off the Hebrides.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-62891265
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

It has turned a little cooler in the last few days with some chilly starts in the morning - even down here in the SW of England we have had a local ground frost on at least three nights. However, during the day the sunshine has still provided some warmth. Here in Tiverton we had some fog to start the day today (Thurs 22nd Sept) , but this soon cleared and we reached a pleasant 19°C in the hazy sunshine.

We have a little rain coming this evening and overnight, and this cold front will see a reloading of the colder weather as the wind goes back round to the NW. Later in the weekend and into early next week we will see another cold frontal passage and this will introduce some particularly chilly Arctic air with more local frosts to come. The strong ridging in the middle of the Atlantic into the weekend is a direct result of Hurricane Fiona moving north up the east side of the States and taking some very warm air well north to the Arctic Circle.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

It has remained on the chilly side here in the UK but with showers rather than longer periods of rain. Here in Tiverton, all four days of this week have had a maximum of just 15°C which is a few degrees below average, and it has started to feel a little on the cool side especially in the wind. The inside temperature at home is now down to 16°C, so it will not be too long before the central heating has to go on. With gas and electricity prices having tripled and doubled respectively (despite recent Government price caps), I might have to learn to operate at a lower temperature to try and save a few pennies. We could do with a record breaking mild winter!

Wet & windy weather is due tomorrow and then it will dry out over the weekend and temperatures should return to near normal. The wind will lose that edge.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Temperatures have returned to a little above normal for the first few days of October and still mostly dry here in the south - all the rain is in the NW where they do not really need it! A deepening secondary low looks set to push NNE across the UK tomorrow (Weds 5th Oct) with strong winds and plenty of rain, but again not much down here in the south. The cold front potentially looks interesting.

The final CET for September was 14.4°C (+0.9°C) and the EWR was 90mm which is 118% of the monthly average.

September was a little milder than average, although the anomaly for the southern half was tiny - the cool weather in the second half of the month offset the early warmth. It was also a little wetter and duller than average for the UK as a whole. A rather unremarkable month - here is the link to the Met Office monthly summary:

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2022/10/0 ... rm-months/
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Whilst it has remained rather unsettled here in the UK, the majority of the rainfall has been in the north (and particularly the north west) and much of southern and eastern England has remained mostly dry and still pleasantly warm - up to 21°C on Wednesday (5th Oct) at Charsfield + RAF Coningsby in eastern England. Some rainfall totals for the first 7 days of October (6am on 1st to 6am on the 8th):

138mm at Tulloch Bridge (Highland)
133mm at capel Curig (NW Wales)
119mm at Shap fell (Cumbria)
15mm at Nottingham
12mm at Plymouth (Devon)
4mm at RAF Brize Norton (near Oxford)
3mm at London Heathrow

Looking forward not much changes for the coming week with the bulk of any rain falling in the north west and still mostly dry down south. It will get a little cooler overall and the chance of a ground frost will increase.

The CET for October was 13.5°C (+3.0°C) up to the 7th and the EWR was 13mm up to the 6th which is 13% of the monthly average of 103mm.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Not much change in the weather in the last few days with most of the rain (and actual 'weather') in the north and west of the UK. It has been mostly dry here in the SW with just a few showers - and still rather mild, although the nights are getting cooler as they lengthen and we are starting to see the first mist and fogs of autumn.

The CET for October was 12.1°C (+1.5°C) up to the 15th and the EWR was 31mm up to the 14th which is 30% of the monthly average. The bulk of the rain for England + Wales has been in the NW part.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

I would have posted this on the relevant date but I had one or two computer issues + I forgot. :crazy:

The 35th anniversary of the Great Storm, which occurred overnight 15th/16th October 1987, has just passed and I think it is worth reflecting on the extreme nature of this storm. The low pressure developed over the Bay of Biscay and moved rapidly (at about 60-70mph) NNE over the southern part of England and out into the North Sea. The strongest winds were on its SE flank and mostly affected the north coast of France and the SE of England. The lowest surface pressure recorded in the UK was 953mb and some of the strongest reported wind gusts were:

117kts (134mph) at Pointe de Roc (Normandy, N France)
100kts (115mph) at Shoreham Airport (W Sussex)
94kts (108mph) at Langdon Bay (Kent)
92kts (106mph) at Headcorn Aerodrome (Kent)
86kts (100mph) at London Gatwick Airport (W Sussex)
82kts (94mph) at London Weather Centre
80kts (92mph) at London Heathrow Airport

The storm, which was at its worst in the early hours of the 16th, caused the loss of 19 lives and was estimated to have blown over 15 million trees in SE England.

It is likely to have been the most severe storm to have struck the UK since the Great Storm of 1703 which affected the southern half of the UK on 26th November 1703. This was very well documented by the English author Daniel Defoe.
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spwill
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2022

Unread post by spwill »

I was living in Mill Hill, NW London at the time, plenty of trees came down around leafy Mill Hill.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Hello spwill. The concentration of the strongest winds was to the south and east of London, so your location in NW London was on the edge of this area. The worst affected areas in terms of damage were West Sussex, East Sussex, Kent and parts of Surrey, Hampshire and south London.

I was living in Milton Keynes at this time and this is about 55 miles NW of central London. Whilst we had a windy night, it was nothing exceptional and I was very surprised when I got to the railway station on the Friday morning to find all trains to London were cancelled due to numerous trees on the line. I was unable to get to work that day (at the London Stock Exchange) as many roads were also blocked and most phone lines were down. If this magnitude of storm were to occur today there would be absolute chaos - but I do not remember this being the case in October 1987, although normal service in terms of electrical power took up to a month to achieve in the more rural and remote locations.

Article from the venerable "Country Life" magazine about the 30th anniversary has some great pictures and accounts.

https://www.countrylife.co.uk/nature/gr ... ain-167063
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2022

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Looking quite active in the English Chanel at the moment according to the Blitz, Simon. I wonder if these thunderstorms will come your way?
JohnGaul
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Simon Culling
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

It certainly was active last night, John. We have had a low pressure system anchored to our SW for a few days and this has had bands of rain + showers circling around it and pushing north and east over the UK. One such band of showers and thunderstorms pushed NE in the early hours of Sunday morning (23rd Oct) and we had a decent storm here in Tiverton between 3am and 4am with a good lightning display and a few decent cracks of thunder. Half an hour of heavy rain as well with local sites getting between 14-18mm.

Lightning map attached for the period 1am to 8am local time on Sunday - roughly 12,000 strikes in that period over southern England and northern France.

The SST's in the English Channel are above average at the moment and this may be adding a bit more heat and lift.
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Simon Culling
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

There was a further (and much more active) round of storms during the afternoon and evening of Sunday 23rd October - this type of weather would be much more typical of July or August and certainly not late October.

Storms developed over northern France late morning and drifted NE across the Channel (or Le Manche en francais) in an organised E-W line that affected much of England east of the Isle of Wight. They missed us here in Tiverton.

The line of storms was typically marked by an initial squall and then frequent lightning/thunder and heavy rain - all over in 20 minutes in most places. However, some quite strong gusts were reported at official sites including 62mph at Middle Wallop (Hants) and 51mph at London Heathrow Airport. There is also evidence of a number of short lived tornadoes within this wind field and these are being investigated by TORRO.

Attached lightning map is for the whole day - bulk of the lightning strikes (208K) were associated with the aft/eve line of storms.

EDIT: Met Office state 40,000 of the strikes were over the UK on Sunday 23rd, although different systems seem to record different numbers.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The weather has quietened down since all the excitement on Sunday and investigations by TORRO suggest at least 3 tornadoes occurred within the thunderstorms on the squall line that moved NNE over the SE of England on that day.

The wind has remained in a southerly quarter for the last few days with low pressure still anchored to our W + SW. As a consequence we have continued to see bands of rain + showers more NE over the UK, but a lot of the rain here in the SW has been in the overnight periods. It has been very mild, especially in the SE of England, with 21°C reached yesterday (Thurs 27th Oct) in and around London. We will see similar values on Saturday.

Looking forward, a general cool down is expected next week with temperatures returning to near normal - which is about 12-14°C by day for the start of November for England + Wales. The usual mix and rain, showers + sunny intervals will persist.

The CET for October was 12.4°C (+1.9°C) up to the 25th and the EWR was 90mm up to the 26th, which is 88% of the monthly average.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Saturday (30th Oct) was a warm day over much of England away from the west and south west, with some late autumn sunshine and top temperatures of 22.9°C at Kew Gardens and 22.8°C at St James Park in London. This is about as hot as it can get at the end of October and if this weather had waited until today (1st Nov) this would have been a new UK record high for this month.

We currently (late Monday evening) have a small low pushing up the English Channel which is bringing a lot of rain and showers to most of England + Wales and some very strong winds close to the south coast. Here in Tiverton as we pass midnight, the wind has shifted to the west and become quite strong (up to 40-45mph in gusts) and we have heavy rain.

After a very mild October, autumn has finally arrived and we have a cooler and more unsettled week to come. The central heating will have to be fired up soon as the house temperature is now down to around 16°C.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

October 2022 was a very mild month with roughly normal rainfall but more sunshine than average for most. In terms of the UK temperature series, which goes back to 1884, it was the seventh warmest , but for the CET series (England only), it was the joint fifth warmest in this series which goes back to 1659. More details in this Met Office summary on their blog:

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2022/11/0 ... s-of-rain/

The final CET for October was 12.8°C (+2.3°C) and the EWR was 114mm, which is 111% of the monthly average.

One interesting point about the October weather was that it became warmer as the month progressed when we otherwise might expect the average temperature to fall by 3°C or so over the month as the season of Autumn advances - note this is an average, but it is unusual for the monthly temperatures to increase (by about 2°C) over the month especially as it did not start cold in 2022 - in fact it started a little above average. Graph below of the daily figures from the CET series (red line is trend and yellow the 2-day moving average) to illustrate this point.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The first 10 days of November have been very mild and generally rather wet in the UK with plenty of rain in the S + SE for a change. Some stations in Kent and East Sussex have already had 100-150mm where the average is no more than 75-100mm for the whole month.

We have some particularly mild air over the UK at the moment and the temperature reached a fohn assisted 18°C today (Thurs 10th Nov) at RAF Kinloss on the Moray Firth in Eastern Scotland and 15-16°C over many parts of the UK. This warm air is going to stick around through the weekend and we could see a temperature of 18-19°C both tomorrow and on Saturday somewhere in the UK - most likely in places with high ground to their S + SW. There will also be some very mild nights.

The CET for November was 10.0°C (+3.6°C) up to the 10th and the EWR was 57mm up to the 8th which is 54% of the monthly average of 106mm.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The exceptionally mild weather has continued here in the UK with record breaking temperatures on a number of days, although the very high figures, as is often the case at this time of the year, are mostly fohn assisted. These are the daily highs for the last few days:

Thursday 10th November - 18.8°C at RAF Kinloss (NE Scotland - fohn, and overnight as the very warm air was advected N)
Friday 11th November - 19.1°C at RAF Lossiemouth (NE Scotland - fohn)
Saturday 12th November - 18.2°C at Kew Gardens
Sunday 13th November - 21.2°C at Porthmadog (NW Wales + fohn)
Monday 14th November - 17.8°C at Herstmonceux (E Sussex)

The average maximum for mid November for southern England is around 11°C and for Scotland around 9-10°C.

Cooler weather is now arriving (Tues 15th Nov) and the cooling trend will continue this week with plenty more rain + showers to come.

The CET for November was 10.8°C (+4.4°C) up to the 14th and the EWR was 59mm up to the 13th which is 55% of the monthly average. The running yearly anomaly for the CET is +1.97°C (up to 14th Nov) and this means that in order to prevent a new record annual CET figure (in the 363 year series), the anomaly for the remainder of the year must exceed -1.56°C. Or in other words, it will have to get rather cold.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

It has been quite a bit cooler in the last few days and has remained unsettled with periods of rain followed by showers. However, temperatures have really only returned to normal levels for mid-November. A significant rain event occurred in eastern Scotland in this period with rainfall totals well in excess of monthly average totals being seen in less than two days, with resultant flooding. Rain figures for the 60 hours to 6am on Saturday 19th November:

187mm at Charr
145mm at Cleuchhead
142mm at Mongour
128mm at Aboyne

All these sites are in Aberdeenshire and at low altitude. A few details in this BBC piece:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-63687963

The unsettled weather looks set to continue for the rest of the week with temperatures still around the average.

The CET for November was 10.3°C (+3.8°C) up to the 19th and the EWR was 111mm (Nelson) also up to the 19th, which is 105% of the monthly average.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The somewhat cooler and unsettled weather has continued for all of the UK, but we are now seeing signs of high pressure taking over and this theme will develop over the next few days with the possibility of substantial 'northern blocking' being in place by the end of this week. This will turn the taps off and bring cloudy and chilly weather with a flow off the continent - what John would term 'clagg'. This dreary weather will likely persisted through the coming weekend. There is the usual hype about the forthcoming winds from the east, but the source of this air is Europe rather than Siberia, so it will be chilly rather than bitter. There is the possibility of air from more northern latitudes next week, but the models are not yet consistent on this.

The CET for November was 9.5°C (+3.1°C) up to the 28th and the EWR was 158mm which is 149% of the monthly average.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2022

Unread post by spwill »

The cold weather in the outlook looks significant because of its duration, see how models look in a few days time.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Thanks, spwill. It is turning colder and the current model forecasts for next week look rather chilly. This is not good news bearing in mind our domestic fuel costs have near as dammit trebled in the last year. I have been using the autumn to get used to a lower temperature in the house - and wearing an extra layer!

Started a Winter thread to report + comment on the forthcoming colder weather.
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Re: UK Weather - Autumn 2022

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Forgot to add the November summary.

Final CET was 9.2°C (+2.7°C) and the final EWR was 159mm which is 150% of the monthly average. This was the 11th consecutive warmer than average month for the year which is part of an unbroken sequence of 18 months. The last cooler than average month on the CET series was May 2021, but do not forget that they are still using 1961-1990 as the compariter.

Met Office summary for the month of November notes that the UK was quite a bit warmer and milder than average and as might be expected with all that rain, it was duller than normal.

The autumn as a whole for the UK was milder and wetter than normal, but sunshine was bang on average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/p ... -on-record
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