Polar Blast - Oct 5-6

[TonyT]

Showers with the initial front then a coastal set up with a frosty Wednesday night....a non event for the bulk of Canterbury

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Its only a "non-event" if you think of it in terms of rain/snow potential. In terms of the degree of cold its a significant event. Plus, it may well be too windy for frost Wednesday night.

[Razor]

GFS certainly more bullish than other models still- for ChCh

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[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I reckon it will be nothing much here, possibly a couple of wintry showers and a bitterly cold wind. ....but then?
Could be a risk of a thunderstorm or even a thunder clap, especially if MS say NO THUNDERSTORMS on their thunderstorm risk page.

[Razor]

All the models I looked at this morning now have some level of snow on the ground for ChCh now. GFS has actually ramped up the moisture a nudge and is suggesting a significant fall. GFS also wants to put snow on the ground in Wellington for a while too. Is it an outlier model for this one? Time will tell.

Most of the rest are suggesting a range from a dusting to a few cms for ChCh

[mikestormchaser]

At this stage it certainly looks like a dusting for eastern south island areas.

[moylanr]

Showers with the initial front then a coastal set up with a frosty Wednesday night....a non event for the bulk of Canterbury

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Its only a "non-event" if you think of it in terms of rain/snow potential. In terms of the degree of cold its a significant event. Plus, it may well be too windy for frost Wednesday night.

Could be interesting power loads. At this time of year there’s ~4% less local generation (25MW) available to respond for load management.

[Dean.]

Pretty much how I see it

Screenshot_20221003-092933_Windy.jpg

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[TonyT]

Its only a "non-event" if you think of it in terms of rain/snow potential. In terms of the degree of cold its a significant event. Plus, it may well be too windy for frost Wednesday night.

Could be interesting power loads. At this time of year there’s ~4% less local generation (25MW) available to respond for load management.

We can be sure there will be cries of anguish from the power industry and maybe even a few brief blackouts - nearly happened a couple of times in the winter, and this is colder.

Some people may have problems getting to work on Wednesday morning. I suspect social media will light up with "its snowing here" posts! (if the power stays on!)

[moylanr]

Could be interesting power loads. At this time of year there’s ~4% less local generation (25MW) available to respond for load management.

We can be sure there will be cries of anguish from the power industry and maybe even a few brief blackouts - nearly happened a couple of times in the winter, and this is colder.

Some people may have problems getting to work on Wednesday morning. I suspect social media will light up with "its snowing here" posts! (if the power stays on!)

I was thinking of just this region and I don’t expect any power supply load issues for customers. Neither locally nor NZ wide.

The Customer Advice Notices from Transpower that have come to the media’s attention in the last year are just notices, for situational awareness and industry response.

[cbm]

From what I can find on clifo the -2C forecast for Central Waikato on Thursday night has only happened once in 100+ years of records in the month of October. In some ways then a bold call but can see -5°C dewpoint in the models. Nervous time for Blueberry and Kiwifruit growers .

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[Storm Struck]

Today's model runs suggest a more longer S-SW flow on Thursday now extending the shower belts from Rakaia northwards through until about 12pm.
Which would increase the accumulation for the city and surrounds, without jumping the gun I am getting more and more enthusiastic about a light to moderate dusting.
Interesting read from a Stuff article yesterday which dug up archives from 1968 and 1969 of snowfalls on the 10th and 11th of October.
The better wording for this is snow is rare in October, but not unheard of.

[Richard]

Showers with the initial front then a coastal set up with a frosty Wednesday night....a non event for the bulk of Canterbury

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Plus, it may well be too windy for frost Wednesday night.

Common for here if the air flow is super cold, a strong daytime wind dies away as it gets dark and then after the sun comes up it kicks into gear again, meaning a dry frost.

[Razor]

MS throwing possible TS into the mix for Wednesday night now too I see.

[Lawrence]

We can be sure there will be cries of anguish from the power industry and maybe even a few brief blackouts - nearly happened a couple of times in the winter, and this is colder.

Some people may have problems getting to work on Wednesday morning. I suspect social media will light up with "its snowing here" posts! (if the power stays on!)

I was thinking of just this region and I don’t expect any power supply load issues for customers. Neither locally nor NZ wide.

The Customer Advice Notices from Transpower that have come to the media’s attention in the last year are just notices, for situational awareness and industry response.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/476 ... pabilities

[spwill]

Nothing much for us in the north with this system apart from how low will temperatures fall ? Early Friday morning will be interesting here with very cold dry air under clear skies.

[mikestormchaser]

There is a break between the initial change in morning and the upper trough coming in the afternoon. If it's warm enough at the surface with the second main change thunder/ hail could well develop in afternoon/ evening in Canterbury. Snow flurries likely to sea level at night

[David]

Nothing much for us in the north with this system apart from how low will temperatures fall ? Early Friday morning will be interesting here with very cold dry air under clear skies.

Yes, I think there’s a good chance my record low October temp will be broken. Currently it’s 3.1C in 2014.

[kiwisk8er]

Waiting to see what happens here in Dunedin. They're predicting snow to sea level on Wednesday. I went out and got extra frost cloth to protect a couple of new fruit trees.

[matttbs]

First time in a long time I’ve seen MetService mention warning amounts of snow to sea level for Canterbury, can’t remember when the last time would’ve been?

[Razor]

Yes latest MS update appears to have them "locking in" sea level snow

[Razor]

I note to the above that Warning Criteria for snow = 10cm

[harveyt86]

I see metservice are now also mentioning seal level snow for Wellington Thursday morning

[Vertigo]

Making a rare appearance here because I was looking at the model runs for this and it gave me 2011 vibes, so came to see what all of you thought - evidently the same. Wondering if the snow will make it up to Auckland again...

[BeaconHill]

2 of the models on Windy are now showing "snow" in Wellington for Thursday just before dawn.

Wellington 1.jpg

Wellington 2.jpg

Metservice Forecast map for the same time:

Metservice.jpg

Thinking I will NOT bike to work on Thursday and work from home instead!

[Richard]

2 of the models on Windy are now showing "snow" in Wellington for Thursday just before dawn.

Wellington 1.jpg

Wellington 2.jpg

Metservice Forecast map for the same time:
Metservice.jpg

Thinking I will NOT bike to work on Thursday and work from home instead!

And at 5 and 6 deg, thats not right. Even for here at 242m asl the MS have between 3 and 5deg, dont think so