NZ Weather Forum

Looking at a brief look at the week ahead. Looks abit of a mixed bag for the country, but mainly settled

Risk of a heavy shower/ thunderstorm for Waikato region today

I also see risk of thunder/ hail for Canterbury tomorrow afternoon.

mikestormchaser wrote: ↑Mon 17/10/2022 10:52 I also see risk of thunder/ hail for Canterbury tomorrow afternoon.

The holiday weekend weather is looking good.

Nice cold trough over Canterbury today for a thunder chance, see how the surface conditions come together today , inland Plains might have the best chance for thunder.

There is strong heating today in chc at least. That has to help chances somewhat?

Looking sunshine wont be a problem.
The cloud development to my SW is a quick when compared to normal storm buildups.
Today could be a storm day from Timaru to Wellington, excluding Geraldine.

Richard wrote: ↑Tue 18/10/2022 12:09 Looking sunshine wont be a problem.
The cloud development to my SW is a quick when compared to normal storm buildups.
Today could be a storm day from Timaru to Wellington, excluding Geraldine.

"excluding Geraldine."

Watching a distant pile of bubbly cloud far to the south at the moment.

18.1°C at my place, temp. rising.

I can see those bubbly clouds down Ashburton way. Fascinating.

The pile of bubbly cloud has exploded into a bit of a tower now. Probably much further away than it looks.
Now 22°C at mine.

Good to know I’m not the only one that watches the bubbles. Conditions certainly seem favourable to me. Good warmth, gentle east to southeasterly. Our first decent chance this season.

Richard wrote: ↑Tue 18/10/2022 12:09 Today could be a storm day from Timaru to Wellington, excluding Geraldine.

Your right. We only want clagg down here on southerly changes

Definitely will be higher chance inland today. Checked the GFS this morning and beginning to think possibly more inland north Canterbury/ oxford area for moderate risk

Its nice and early in the day seeing such great looking builds ups, could today be the end of long storm drought?

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Tue 18/10/2022 13:04

Richard wrote: ↑Tue 18/10/2022 12:09 Today could be a storm day from Timaru to Wellington, excluding Geraldine.

Your right. We only want clagg down here on southerly changes

Have you developed some sort of claggcoholicm

Looking from Cashmere

MS has put a Severe TS watch out. Seems to be a few developments around Lincoln here

Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Area: Canterbury Plains, Canterbury High Country
Period: 3hrs 29min from 1:31pm - 5pm Tue, 18 Oct
Forecast: Very cold air aloft, combined with wind convergences, are producing showers over Canterbury and a very unstable environment.
Conditions are conducive for the development of possible severe thunderstorms this afternoon. These thunderstorms are likely to be accompanied by heavy rain, and hail of of more then 20 mm in diameter.
People in the area are advised to stay alert to these severe weather conditions, with hail damage possible. Large hail can cause significant damage to crops, orchards, vines, glasshouses and vehicles, as well as make driving conditions hazardous.
Issued: 1:39pm Tue, 18 Oct
Next update: 4pm Tue, 18 Oct
Note: A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favourable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. People in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and monitor for possible Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.


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Certainly a lot more cloud here than the blue dome we started with now. Noticed the Cumulus congestus forming along the divide to the west,but nothing too interesting to report yet.

Wind rising from the east/south-east; can see a lot of dark-grey fluffy cloud moving in from the coast, wondering if there's dust being blown about also, looks a bit hazy low down.

Back to 18.1°C.

Thunderr!

15.4°C now.

Orion wrote: ↑Tue 18/10/2022 14:22 Thunderr!

15.4°C now.

So good to hear thunder again.

Ive got a breezy NW wind here that needs to swing to a SE before any activity can arrive, still got plenty of blue sky still

Definitely developing

Oh yes some decent thunder and lightning here now! Heavy rain falling as well.

Raining and a great flash of lightning followed quickly by thunder; 14.0°C.

Looks to be two Storm cells on current radar, one near Ashburton and the other just near Rakaia.
Took this photo looking SW, shower to the right and storm over Rakaia on the left.

Scarcely three seconds from the most recent flash of lightning to the thunder. Busy busy!

13.1°C.