NZ Weather Forum

Will there be the chance of a lightning flash, so I can try out my lightning app on my cell phone?
...or maybe a funnel cloud?

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Sun 30/10/2022 23:20 so I can try out my lightning app on my cell phone?

What app is that John?

MS prognosis at this point in time. No doubt an update at some point this AM

Updated at 8:20pm Sunday - Moderate risks added to Central Hawkes Bay, Tararua District, Westland and Buller.

A moist northerly air mass is expected to affect much of the North Island during the second half of Monday, and the rain-band is expected to weaken over the east of Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne. Showers are likely to affect many areas and there is a chance that daytime heating will trigger some thunderstorms. There is a low risk of thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening from Waikato to Wairarapa, but the risk is considered moderate about Central Hawkes Bay and the Tararua District, with localised heavy rain and possibly small hail.

An upper cold trough moves eastwards over the South Island during the period. This brings further thunderstorms to Westland and Buller in the afternoon, while cloud buildups about eastern areas are expected to produce scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening from Kaikoura to eastern Otago with localised heavy rain and hail. There is also a low risk of one or two small and very localised tornadoes about Canterbury and North Otago. A surrounding low risk covers many other South Island areas as indicated on the chart.

No other thunderstorms or significant convection expected over New Zealand during this period.

Here there's no NW wind this morning, so that's promising

This mornings update
A moist northerly air mass affects much of the North Island today, and an embedded rain-band over the east of Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne is expected to weaken. Showers are likely to affect many areas and there is a chance that daytime heating will trigger some thunderstorms. There is generally a low risk of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening from Waikato to Wairarapa, but the risk is considered moderate about Central Hawke's Bay and the Tararua District. There is also a moderate risk of thunderstorms about eastern Northland this afternoon and evening. Any thunderstorms that occur will likely be accompanied by localised heavy rain, and possibly small hail.

Meanwhile, an upper cold trough moves eastwards over the South Island. This brings a moderate risk of thunderstorms to much of Westland and Buller till evening, while cloud buildups about eastern areas this afternoon and evening are expected to produce scattered thunderstorms from Nelson Lakes to eastern Otago. Any thunderstorms that occur will likely be accompanied by localised heavy rain and hail. There is also a low risk of one or two small and very localised tornadoes about Canterbury and North Otago. A surrounding low risk covers many other South Island areas, as indicated on the chart.

No thunderstorms or significant convection expected elsewhere in New Zealand today.

I’m watching today with interest.

Low level cloud now streaming in here from the south. Hopefully it doesn’t hang around too long.

Its not the usual thunderstorms on a sw change situation. That's rare.

The 500mb temps arnt that cold for Canterbury today but the surface dew point and NE should over ride those temperatures for thunder/ hail.

North Island looks like thunder today aswel!

I'll be chasing

Powermad wrote: ↑Mon 31/10/2022 09:07 I'll be chasing

I'll be chasing as far as the back paddock only, busy time of year in the garden

The lower level cloud that I noted earlier has mostly cleared. I can still see some lingering to the south. Gentle southerly breeze with the sun shining. Temp 16.1 c

25 degrees at home down the road in Halswell, and a light shifty breeze here in Lincoln as at 1040hrs

darcyplumb wrote: ↑Mon 31/10/2022 10:38 I can still see some lingering to the south.

That will be hanging around over John's place

Winds are light here coming from the west, they will die out once the trough moves over this afternoon

Richard wrote: ↑Mon 31/10/2022 11:10

darcyplumb wrote: ↑Mon 31/10/2022 10:38 I can still see some lingering to the south.

That will be hanging around over John's place

Winds are light here coming from the west, they will die out once the trough moves over this afternoon

I thought that too

Blue skies overhead here, sunny, 18.3°C and rising, light south-easterly.

Awaiting developments.

Winds are now SE here, just whats needed

27 degrees with a gentle SW breeze

Richard wrote: ↑Mon 31/10/2022 11:10

darcyplumb wrote: ↑Mon 31/10/2022 10:38 I can still see some lingering to the south.

That will be hanging around over John's place

Winds are light here coming from the west, they will die out once the trough moves over this afternoon

Got that about right, lingering over orari also. been trying to clear but more just keeps coming in. Looks like the action will be north of here today at this stage unfortunately

We definitely have the heating there today, abit of weaker CU forms out there now nothing too punchy yet though.
I'd expect the instability to sky rocket from about 1pm as the trough begins to gear up and cross for the afternoon.

The first signs of cauliflorous clouds are there now, just like SS said.

A decent tower developing quite quickly looking from here towards the Mt Peel/Mayfield-ish area.

Nothing down here, just flat cloud and a light southerly.
Fine looking to the north though, where ground heating could disable the air or do something perhaps?

Radar showing some activity inland along the foothills towards Mt Somers and Methven.

Richard wrote: ↑Mon 31/10/2022 07:33

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Sun 30/10/2022 23:20 so I can try out my lightning app on my cell phone?

What app is that John?

I don't what it is called, it just says Lightning Camera. . Aaron downloaded it to my new phone when he called in to visit a couple of weeks ago.

The view from my lounge window right now. Looks like an inflow tail forming to the left.