NZ Weather Forum

Metservice wrote:Updated at 8pm Tuesday - Central North Island risk increased to high, moderate risk added to Gisborne ranges, low risk of severe thunderstorms added to western Northland.

A warm moist airmass will cover New Zealand on Wednesday, while temperatures cool aloft. This is expected to lead to a very unstable atmosphere over the North Island in the afternoon and evening with heavy showers and thunderstorms in many areas.

There is a moderate to high risk of scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening about many North Island areas as indicated on the chart.

These thunderstorms will produce localised heavy rain, and there is a risk some of the thunderstorms could be severe about western Northland, and central North Island areas from western Waikato through the central high country to Hawkes Bay and northern Wairarapa with localised downpours of 25-40mm/h. Rainfall rates of this intensity can cause surface and/or flash flooding and make driving conditions hazardous.

Severe Thunderstorm Watches for localised downpours may be issued for some North Island areas on Wednesday, and people within these areas are advised to stay up to date with the latest forecasts.

A low risk of thunderstorms covers other North Island areas, and the southern half of the South Island, as indicated on the chart.

No other thunderstorms or significant convection expected over New Zealand during this period.

Metservice wrote:A warm moist airmass covers New Zealand, while temperatures cool aloft. This is expected to lead to a very unstable atmosphere, especially over the North Island this afternoon and evening, with heavy showers and thunderstorms likely in many areas.

There is a moderate to high risk of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening about much of the North Island, with a lower risk continuing into the night, as indicated on the chart. These thunderstorms will produce localised heavy rain, and there is a risk some of the thunderstorms could be severe about western Northland, and central North Island areas between Waikato and Wairarapa, with localised downpours of 25-40 mm/h.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch for localised downpours has been issued for some North Island areas.

Meanwhile, there is a low risk of thunderstorms occurring about the Canterbury High Country, inland Otago, Fiordland and Southland from afternoon. However, for parts of Fiordland and Southland the risk is considered moderate this afternoon and evening. Any thunderstorms that occur will produce localised heavy rain.

No thunderstorms or significant convection expected elsewhere in New Zealand today.

spwill wrote: ↑Wed 16/11/2022 08:47 I'm in Katikati today but come back to Auckland through Waikato late afternoon.

Tornado Tim wrote: ↑Wed 16/11/2022 09:08

spwill wrote: ↑Wed 16/11/2022 08:47 I'm in Katikati today but come back to Auckland through Waikato late afternoon.

If looking good, feel free to meet us Waikato crew and lets get a chase on

metservice wrote:Humid conditions over New Zealand with cool temperatures in the upper atmosphere mean very unstable conditions are likely today.

Essentially the whole of the country has a low risk of thunderstorms for parts of the day, and for clarity, no low risk areas are delineated on the chart.

Within all moderate risk areas, there could be localised heavy rain associated with thunderstorms producing intensities of 10 to 25 mm per hour.

There is moderate risk of thunderstorms this morning and afternoon about Waitomo, Taranaki and western Whanganui, while the rest of the North Island, excluding most of Northland, Kapiti and Wellington has a moderate risk of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Within this area, the risk of thunderstorms is high during the afternoon for southern Waikato to central North Island, across to Central Hawkes Bay, through the Tararua District and into parts of Wairarapa and there is moderate risk of severe thunderstorms for these places, bringing localised downpours with intensities of 25 to 40 mm per hour.

There is also a moderate risk of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening about inland places of the South Island.

This evening and tonight, a moderate risk of thunderstorms develops about northern Northland.

spwill wrote: ↑Thu 17/11/2022 09:18 We want to see the sun out.

darcyplumb wrote: ↑Thu 17/11/2022 09:59 Lower level cloud is clearing in Ashburton at the moment but there is a decent layer of high cloud to be dealt with as well.

jamie wrote: ↑Tue 15/11/2022 16:35 Looks like potential for 5 days of thunder in a row


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