NZ Weather Forum

MetService Thunderstorm Outlook

An active front moves eastwards across the North Island today bringing periods of heavy rain and strong northerly winds to many areas. There is a high risk of thunderstorms affecting North Island regions from Whanganui, Taihape, and the ranges of Hawke's Bay and Gisborne northwards, and a moderate risk of thunderstorms from evening for Manawatu, Horowhenua, the Kapiti Coast, Wairarapa and the Tararua District, as drawn on the chart. These thunderstorms will bring localised heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 25 mm/h, strong winds gusting 90 to 110 km/h, and hail of 5 to 15 mm diameter. There is also moderate confidence that some of these thunderstorms could become SEVERE with damaging wind gusts greater than 110 km/h and possible small tornadoes, and for the central North Island from Waikato southwards localised downpours of 25 to 40 mm/hr.

For the South Island, an unstable northwest flow persists through today, bringing a moderate risk of thunderstorms to Buller, Westland and the adjacent Alps, and Fiordland. There is also a moderate risk of thunderstorms for Dunedin, Clutha and coastal Southland this afternoon. Any thunderstorms that occur will bring localised heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 25 mm/h, and hail of 5 to 15 mm diameter. There is also the risk of a small coastal tornado about the West Coast.

Finally, there is a low risk of thunderstorms for the remainder of the North Island not covered by the high or moderate risk areas, and for northern and eastern parts of the South Island, as depicted on the chart.

MetService Thunderstorm Outlook Map - Is. 22 Nov 8.07am.png

Issued: 8:08am Tue, 22 Nov
Valid to midnight Tue, 22 Nov

Nev wrote: ↑Tue 22/11/2022 21:02 Akld may get hammered shortly if that incoming cell to NW stays active...