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Heavy showers/ Thunderstorms Nov 24th
Posted: Wed 23/11/2022 18:37
by spwill
Upper level cold air creates instability across New Zealand tomorrow, Thursday. Areas most at risk for thunder are those areas exposed to the westerly flow and the east of South Island where afternoon/evening convergence occurs.
Re: Heavy showers/ Thunderstorms Nov 24th
Posted: Thu 24/11/2022 08:25
by Nev
MS have matained a moderate risk for much of the North Island, Canterbury/Otago and Southland for later today...
MetService Thunderstorm Outlook
Unstable westerlies affect New Zealand today.
There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms across the North Island, from Northland to northern Wellington and across the ranges of Hawke's Bay and Gisborne. These thunderstorms may produce brief heavy rain and small hail, strong wind gusts of up to 100 km/h, and a slight chance of a small coastal tornado. The risk for most of Northland eases early afternoon but persists in the south. A moderate risk of thunderstorms also extends over northern Westland and Buller, easing in northern Westland by evening. These thunderstorms may produce brief heavy rain and small hail. A moderate risk of thunderstorms extends over the south of Fiordland, Southland and Clutha during the afternoon and early evening. Afternoon and evening wind convergences are expected to bring a moderate risk of thunderstorms from Dunedin to the Canterbury coast and Plains, with localised heavy rain and hail.
A low risk of thunderstorms extends over other parts of the North and South Island, as indicated on the chart.
MetService Thunderstorm Outlook Map - Is. 24 Nov 8.18am.png
Issued: 8:19am Thu, 24 Nov
Valid to midnight Thu, 24 Nov
Re: Heavy showers/ Thunderstorms Nov 24th
Posted: Thu 24/11/2022 09:38
by darcyplumb
Not looking like a ‘typical’ storm day here in Mid Canterbury yet. High cloud, quite cool at 14 degrees C. Plenty more hours in the day for that to change though.
Re: Heavy showers/ Thunderstorms Nov 24th
Posted: Thu 24/11/2022 09:52
by David
Another 15mm here this morning. Probably the wettest I've seen the ground in November, almost 100mm over the past 8 days.
Re: Heavy showers/ Thunderstorms Nov 24th
Posted: Thu 24/11/2022 10:08
by mikestormchaser
darcyplumb wrote: ↑Thu 24/11/2022 09:38
Not looking like a ‘typical’ storm day here in Mid Canterbury yet. High cloud, quite cool at 14 degrees C. Plenty more hours in the day for that to change though.
In a weird twisted way Saturday for me looked better than today.
Still a risk for sure today for the Canterbury region however if things do fire I think it will stay very coastal today's chances
Re: Heavy showers/ Thunderstorms Nov 24th
Posted: Thu 24/11/2022 10:24
by darcyplumb
mikestormchaser wrote: ↑Thu 24/11/2022 10:08
darcyplumb wrote: ↑Thu 24/11/2022 09:38
Not looking like a ‘typical’ storm day here in Mid Canterbury yet. High cloud, quite cool at 14 degrees C. Plenty more hours in the day for that to change though.
In a weird twisted way Saturday for me looked better than today.
Still a risk for sure today for the Canterbury region however if things do fire I think it will stay very coastal today's chances
In my experience, days with W to NW air flow don’t produce decent thunderstorms around here. Happy to be told otherwise. I’d love for a good storm to prove me wrong but I just can’t see it happening today.
Re: Heavy showers/ Thunderstorms Nov 24th
Posted: Thu 24/11/2022 10:46
by spwill
For Canterbury watch the convergence later in the day, coastal winds will be onshore this afternoon. The upper air is cold today.
Re: Heavy showers/ Thunderstorms Nov 24th
Posted: Thu 24/11/2022 11:12
by Storm Struck
Agree it was always going to be westerly this morning then the ridge opens this afternoon to allow onshore winds in.
The high cloud should clear in the coming hours, westerly has dropped here now.
Indeed a coastal slot from Timaru to Banks Peninsula but this boundary shifts to over Christchurch tonight with an increase in moisture.
Watch those hail stones too.
Re: Heavy showers/ Thunderstorms Nov 24th
Posted: Thu 24/11/2022 13:01
by darcyplumb
Maybe I’ll eat my words… some nice towers going up to my south. Westerly has died off and high cloud is mostly gone.
Re: Heavy showers/ Thunderstorms Nov 24th
Posted: Thu 24/11/2022 13:35
by TonyT
darcyplumb wrote: ↑Thu 24/11/2022 10:24
In my experience, days with W to NW air flow don’t produce decent thunderstorms around here. Happy to be told otherwise. I’d love for a good storm to prove me wrong but I just can’t see it happening today.
It's all about the instability. :=)
Re: Heavy showers/ Thunderstorms Nov 24th
Posted: Thu 24/11/2022 14:06
by Orion
It's trying to rain at the moment, the odd heavy drop plopping on the roof.
Seems to have gone easterly/ESE?
Temp. 19.9°C and falling.
Re: Heavy showers/ Thunderstorms Nov 24th
Posted: Thu 24/11/2022 14:16
by Richard
I gesstermate there a 1 to 3% chance of any excitement this afternoon around this parts, steady moderate NW here, not ideal setup.
Re: Heavy showers/ Thunderstorms Nov 24th
Posted: Thu 24/11/2022 14:31
by Storm Struck
Flicking between Northerly and ENE here now with plenty of TCU going up, even over Banks Peninsula way.
Best window is between 4pm and 8pm.
Re: Heavy showers/ Thunderstorms Nov 24th
Posted: Thu 24/11/2022 14:35
by dogmelon
There was that thunderstorm we had in chc on a sw change some years back where it was nw beforehand and you'd swear a storm could never happen so never say never about the nw thing.
Re: Heavy showers/ Thunderstorms Nov 24th
Posted: Thu 24/11/2022 16:06
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Nothing much happening down here. a lot of Cu clouds but all lacking pregnancy. The odd one or 2 spits occurring.
Wind mainly from the westerly sector.
Re: Heavy showers/ Thunderstorms Nov 24th
Posted: Thu 24/11/2022 16:57
by spwill
It has been a mainly fine breezy afternoon here, might hear some thunder here late evening with some cold showers.
Re: Heavy showers/ Thunderstorms Nov 24th
Posted: Thu 24/11/2022 17:16
by Razor
Thunder in Tai Tapu. Impressive buildups
Re: Heavy showers/ Thunderstorms Nov 24th
Posted: Thu 24/11/2022 17:20
by dogmelon
Edit: Never mind. I don't know anything and no one likes what I say.
Re: Heavy showers/ Thunderstorms Nov 24th
Posted: Thu 24/11/2022 17:22
by Thunder081
Looking cool south of Christchurch!
IMG_20221124_171910.jpg
Re: Heavy showers/ Thunderstorms Nov 24th
Posted: Thu 24/11/2022 17:27
by Thunder081
Just seen a forked lightning!
Re: Heavy showers/ Thunderstorms Nov 24th
Posted: Thu 24/11/2022 17:32
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Clouds now going up around the Mt. Peel/4 Peaks area or TC.
A bit of a fresh SE here now.
Re: Heavy showers/ Thunderstorms Nov 24th
Posted: Thu 24/11/2022 17:34
by tich
Looks to be moving east on radar at this stage, instead of heading towards Chch.
Re: Heavy showers/ Thunderstorms Nov 24th
Posted: Thu 24/11/2022 18:48
by Karliosis
Saw a couple of flashes over the Port Hills about 20 minutes ago from Moorehouse Ave. Few rolls of thunder heard from Somerfield before that. Looks to me that will be it for today.
Re: Heavy showers/ Thunderstorms Nov 24th
Posted: Thu 24/11/2022 19:15
by Storm Struck
Took a quick chase out to birdlings flat well halfway anyway just past Motukarara, as I thought the cell might skirt offshore like they usually do.
Had some heavy rain and hail about 5mm through just before Tai tapu, only observed one flash though.
Just some rain shafts in a photo for reference
Update 7:40pm new thunderstorm coming out of Mt Peel and some down near Oamaru.
20221124_182201.jpg
Re: Heavy showers/ Thunderstorms Nov 24th
Posted: Thu 24/11/2022 19:42
by Powermad
Saw BP... Heading south
