General January Weather

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Fri 30/12/2022 23:32

Looks like a La Nina start for 2023 with a continuing weather pattern from the end of 2022 into the first month of the new year.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Sun 01/01/2023 18:06

yes and very La Nina like weather towards the end of this week coming.

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Sun 01/01/2023 18:15

Some warm days and nights away from the coast until Saturday by the looks

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NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 01/01/2023 23:35

Nothing much in the weather up here to start off 2023. Up the Kapiti Coast today venturing out on the new motorway/expressway to Otaki.
Some of the turnoffs not very well designed.
Looks like it was clagg down home today.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 02/01/2023 22:34

Drizzly day over at Eastbourne today.
Nothing much else to report about.
Might be wet up north later on this week.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Tue 03/01/2023 10:32

The BOM continues to amplify the MJO into phases 8 & 1 from about the 16th through to the end of the month. Those are the phases which favour low pressure systems over or near NZ. It could be an ugly second half of this month.

mjo_rmm.daily.20221231.png

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Tue 03/01/2023 10:53

TonyT wrote: ↑Tue 03/01/2023 10:32The BOM continues to amplify the MJO into phases 8 & 1 from about the 16th through to the end of the month. Those are the phases which favour low pressure systems over or near NZ. It could be an ugly second half of this month.

That'd be right. It hosed down when I packed up & bought all the Mobile Dental Units in from the schools. Figures it'll do it again when I have to put them back out again

Be interesting to see how it pans out.

Friends up in Darwin have been having a good wet season.

David · Unread post by **David** » Tue 03/01/2023 11:15

Some pretty decent precip numbers showing up in the next 7 days as well.

GFS:

23010918_2_0212.gif

EC:

23010912_2_0212.gif

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 03/01/2023 11:59

Some thunderstorm risk is being modelled from Thursday for the upper North Island due to some upper level cooling and very moist air in place. See how it looks on the day.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Tue 03/01/2023 13:14

A mild to average start to the year temperature wise under the continual ENE flow, nice to have it calm for the campers although is set to change in a few days.
The isolated heavy shower and thunderstorm convergence risk pops up again Friday afternoon for Canterbury, although upper air is modeled to be quite warm.
Brief heavy rain for the region on Saturday also.

Do you think Aotearoa is set up for a slightly greater risk of a tropical cyclone this season given the current trend?

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Tue 03/01/2023 13:20

Storm Struck wrote: ↑Tue 03/01/2023 13:14 Do you think Aotearoa is set up for a slightly greater risk of a tropical cyclone this season given the current trend?

No.
A substantially greater risk. Active tropics and sub-tropics are the hall-marks of a La Niña summer.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 03/01/2023 22:17

Fine day in the Hutt valley but I don't think it got up to 29C what they said on the telly tonight, probably 27C with light winds.
Tuis were very noisy today up here in Belmont.

Iloveweather · Unread post by **Iloveweather** » Tue 03/01/2023 22:52

Gosh this wind in Christchurch is unrelenting!

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Wed 04/01/2023 08:43

Iloveweather wrote: ↑Tue 03/01/2023 22:52 Gosh this wind in Christchurch is unrelenting!

Not too bad 20 mins north at Kairaki. Magic weather, breeze most welcome to stop it getting overheated at camp. 26 degrees.

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Wed 04/01/2023 08:46

Little wind here at Ashley Gorge..very warm 26 ish and mild nights

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Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Wed 04/01/2023 08:48

Razor wrote: ↑Wed 04/01/2023 08:43
Iloveweather wrote: ↑Tue 03/01/2023 22:52 Gosh this wind in Christchurch is unrelenting!
Not too bad 20 mins north at Kairaki. Magic weather, breeze most welcome to stop it getting overheated at camp. 26 degrees.

Here yesterday was mostly calm till about 4.00 when a breezy NE came, then died away in the evening. 25.7deg the high.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Wed 04/01/2023 08:49

Dean. wrote: ↑Wed 04/01/2023 08:46 Little wind here at Ashley Gorge..very warm 26 ish and mild nights

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Great place to camp at, river water stays rather cool for swimming

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Wed 04/01/2023 09:31

Richard wrote:
Dean. wrote: ↑Wed 04/01/2023 08:46 Little wind here at Ashley Gorge..very warm 26 ish and mild nights

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Great place to camp at, river water stays rather cool for swimming

Hidden gem isn't it...yep tubing on the river

️

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Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Wed 04/01/2023 09:55

Dean. wrote: ↑Wed 04/01/2023 09:31
Richard wrote:
Great place to camp at, river water stays rather cool for swimming
Hidden gem isn't it...yep tubing on the river ️

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Have you tubed from the middle bridge yet?, that's a great wee adventure Ive heard, friends have done it, I haven't. Can't remember how long it took, but its most of the day to get back the the gorge in a normal summer, be quicker at the moment with an above norm river level.
Its best done when the weather is NW where it helps push you down stream, it also stays warmer into the later part of the day, otherwise the NE coming up the river can really chill you if you are still wet. There's also a small waterfall halfway through one and a half m high, its deep enough below to ride the tub over....so Ive heard.

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Wed 04/01/2023 10:11

Richard wrote:
Dean. wrote: ↑Wed 04/01/2023 09:31 Hidden gem isn't it...yep tubing on the river ️

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Have you tubed from the middle bridge yet?, that's a great wee adventure Ive heard, friends have done it, I haven't. Can't remember how long it took, but its most of the day to get back the the gorge in a normal summer, be quicker at the moment with an above norm river level.
Its best done when the weather is NW where it helps push you down stream, it also stays warmer into the later part of the day, otherwise the NE coming up the river can really chill you if you are still wet. There's also a small waterfall halfway through one and a half m high, its deep enough below to ride the tub over....so Ive heard.

Will check it out thanks....warming up quickly here.
Expecting a splash of rain in the morning then fine until the active southerly change Friday evening.

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David · Unread post by **David** » Wed 04/01/2023 14:23

Took my portable anemometer up to Musick Point in the last hour, recorded 53 km/h average with gusts up to 74 km/h up there. Only getting gusts up to around 50 km/h at home. Rain a bit of no-show so far, perhaps the accumulations will be lower than modelled...

cbm · Unread post by **cbm** » Wed 04/01/2023 15:03

David wrote:Took my portable anemometer up to Musick Point in the last hour, recorded 53 km/h average with gusts up to 74 km/h up there. Only getting gusts up to around 50 km/h at home. Rain a bit of no-show so far, perhaps the accumulations will be lower than modelled...

Simillar to the system 8/9th December so far with respect to rain, but it came in heavy a few days later.

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Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Wed 04/01/2023 16:33

Anyone explain what is causing this contrasting areas of cloud on today's satellite images.

Jan4.png

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Wed 04/01/2023 17:17

Richard wrote: ↑Wed 04/01/2023 16:33 Anyone explain what is causing this contrasting areas of cloud on today's satellite images.
Jan4.png

Probably a dry line boundary between upper and lower level cloud.

xx_sat-en-387-0-zz_2023_01_04_03_40_1294_280.png

xx_sat-en-387-0-zz_2023_01_04_03_40_1294_279.png

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Wed 04/01/2023 23:16

Fine and warm this morning but clouding up later in the day here in Belmont.
Looks like a wet La Nina period of weather coming up for most areas of the country this month.

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