NZ Weather Forum

Latest (0Z 1st) ECMWF operational has an active trough off the central Queensland coast around the 6th & 7th, extending across towards New Caledonia on the 8th and spawning a Tropical Depression which recurves back southwestwards towards the Bay of Plenty around the 11th. The active troughing has strong ensemble support, but the TD currently doesn't. Its worth keeping an eye on though.

And that's pretty much what happened, so well done ECMWF (and Tony).


P.S. I've taken the liberty of updating this thread's original title, 'Possible TD impact mid-January', to cover impacts over the next few days.

MS currently have Heavy Rain Watches out for the Coromandel Peninsula, Gisborne and Hawke's Bay.

Yesterday's Severe Weather Outlook map...

Certainly looking like a significant impactful storm for the North Island. Civil Defence already warning people against being complacent.

And next week's one is looking even worse......

Just a report from Hawkes Bay the rivers are already running high from recent wet weather so expecting some significant impacts.

Not so bad here when the low tracks east of us and the low is on the move unlike last weeks blocked pattern.

This side of New Year has been tough for the small communities in the north that rely on tourism, visitors have gone home early

Hi was hopeing someone could answer me if I should be worried about this I live in Te aroha thanks heaps

Twister sista wrote: ↑Mon 09/01/2023 14:57 Hi was hopeing someone could answer me if I should be worried about this I live in Te aroha thanks heaps

MetService currently have a Strong Wind Watch tomorrow for easterlies in the lee of the Kaimai Range (aka the 'Kaimai Buster').

James wrote: ↑Mon 09/01/2023 10:49 And next week's one is looking even worse......

You mean SP95? Yep could swipe the East.. again .. Yikes!

It looks like that the Coromandel is already getting rain. Easterly flow towards Auckland. It will get wet here in about 1 to 2 hours by the look of it.

Next week Option II ... hope not.

I see Auckland area is now included in the orange warning for heavy rain.

Took this pic at 5.45pm, skies looking E/Ne were rather moody looking

Blowy wrote: ↑Mon 09/01/2023 20:17 Next week Option II ... hope not.

GFS currently has that system staying north of NZ and a complete miss. Way too early to call

Hawkes Bay here. Rain hasn't arrived yet, showers blowing in from the East. Low cloud and a 20kph wind blowing.

15mm here overnight. Gentle SE breeze.

26mm here since about 10:30pm last night. SE gusts of over 100 km/h in the outer Gulf.

Hale's 992 hPa centre currently about 450km NE of Great Barrier Island and heading our way...

LOL. Apparently Cyclone Bola was in 2005.

Cyclone Hale delivers more heavy rain for Coromandel https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/482 ... coromandel

"Gisborne District Council said rain models show the Hikuwai River could peak at 13.5m at 10pm Tuesday - exceeding the 2005 Cyclone Bola level of 12.4m."

What they meant to say was exceeding the October 2005 flood and 1988 Cyclone Bola levels of 12.4m."

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25mm here so far, light winds.

Family at Waipu Cove, Northland say they have a lot of flooding there with the local creek causing problems.

cbm wrote: ↑Tue 10/01/2023 15:02 LOL. Apparently Cyclone Bola was in 2005.

I think is was 1988 ?

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Tue 10/01/2023 18:47

cbm wrote: ↑Tue 10/01/2023 15:02 LOL. Apparently Cyclone Bola was in 2005.

I think is was 1988 ?

Yes, as mentioned in the rest of cbm's post.

MS have Hale's now 986 hPa centre about 50 km ENE of Great Barrier Island at 6pm and apparently has slowed and turned from SSW to SE. The outer Gulf's Mokohinau Islands and Great Mercury Island east of Coromandel currently at 989 hPa. Can also see some rotation of the radar.

Edit: Tonight's track-map added.

Cyclone Bola was in March 1988. I know 100% sure as I emigrated to NZ in Feb 1988 and was driving trucks then and remember the strong winds and floodings which lasted for about a week as the cyclone didn't move.

RODALCO wrote:Cyclone Bola was in March 1988. I know 100% sure as I emigrated to NZ in Feb 1988 and was driving trucks then and remember the strong winds and floodings which lasted for about a week as the cyclone didn't move.

Yeah, thought it was a bad miss by whoever proof read that story (assuming someone does) as Cycole Bola is one of the most famous and memorable weather events in this country. I guess however if the proof reader is under 40 or started their life overseas they won't have the first hand memories of Bola to make that error so jaring as it was to me. It got read out like that on the RNZ hourly bulletin which i heard first, surprised the news reader didn't catch it also.

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The rain cleared here by midday (apart from a few random spits), 17mm total… have to say quite a lot less than I had expected

Pressure has just dipped under 990 on my station