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Tropical Cyclone Hale

Posted: Fri 06/01/2023 07:58
by Nev
Earlier this morning JTWC upgraded the chances of an inland area of deep convection NW of Townsville of developing into a significant TC once it emerges over water to medium within the next 24 hours.

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Posted: Fri 06/01/2023 20:35
by Nev
Our Coral Sea low now lies about 300 km east of Townsville and maintains a central pressure of 998 hPa with max winds estimated at 20 to 25 knots. Convection still a little disorganised, but has deepened more this afternoon. Although TD 93P-07U lies in a marginal environment, JTWC's potential for it to develop into a TC within the next 24 hours remains at medium.

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Posted: Sat 07/01/2023 06:05
by Nev
JTWC issued a TC Formation Alert for our Coral Sea low earlier this morning, with a high chance of becoming a TC within the next 24 hrs. A fragmented but consolidating convective band is wrapping around the LLCC, with strong poleward outflow aloft. SST's around 28C, but some medium to high wind shear.

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Posted: Sat 07/01/2023 09:45
by Nev
JTWC have upgraded our Coral Sea low to TC status (based on 1-minute max winds). The BoM still maintains a 'very low' risk... :-k

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Posted: Sat 07/01/2023 16:13
by Nev
Our Coral Sea low has strengthened a little today in a slightly more favourable environment. It's possible that the system could evolve into more than one centre of circulation, with one spinning out of the northwestern end of the elongated circulation and moving east over northern New Caledonia, while the current LLCC continues to track southeastward.

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Posted: Sun 08/01/2023 07:31
by Nev
Our tropical storm entered Fiji Met's area of responsibility earlier this morning. JTWC had a central pressure of 992 hPa and 1-minute max winds of 45 knots at 1am. Interestingly Fiji Met only have 10-minute max winds at 30 knots this morning, compared to the BoM's 40 knots yesterday evening. However, Fiji Met also rate its chances of becoming a TC today as medium to high.

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Posted: Sun 08/01/2023 09:07
by Nev
Our yet to be named tropical storm's centre is about to pass just south of New Caledonia. Fiji Met still only have 10 minute max winds of 30 knots, with a central pressure of 996 hPa.

Re: Tropical Cyclone Hale

Posted: Sun 08/01/2023 12:53
by Nev
TC Hale has finally been named by Fiji Met, with max 10-minute winds of 40 knots and central pressure of 994 hPa.

Re: Tropical Cyclone Hale

Posted: Sun 08/01/2023 20:16
by Nev
Short lived 'former TC Hale' has been reclassified as a 'tropical low' by MetService this evening. Increasing shear and very dry mid-level air has taken its toll on Hale this afternoon as it rapidly falls apart.

Re: Tropical Cyclone Hale

Posted: Sun 08/01/2023 21:02
by Nev
First track-map issued by MetService...