Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle

Discussion of weather and climate outside of NZ's waters. Australian weather, tropical cyclones and USA storm chasing feature here.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6316
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf
Has thanked: 502 times
Been thanked: 1146 times

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle

Unread post by Nev »

All eyes on the developing low near Vanuatu, which could ultimately be heading NZ's way in about a week's time.
The BoM expect it to rapidly intensify in the next few days, with a high chance of becoming a TC by Wednesday, if not before.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18804
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1888 times
Been thanked: 1482 times

Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Oh! No! Not Auckland again? >_<
JohnGaul
NZThS
User avatar
David
Posts: 7631
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 442 times
Been thanked: 882 times
Contact:

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by David »

Certainly one to watch. Current GFS has it crossing Auckland at 974 hPa o_O
Image
User avatar
David
Posts: 7631
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 442 times
Been thanked: 882 times
Contact:

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by David »

Saving this here for posterity 8-o
Of course, still early days and it may miss us entirely
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Image
cbm
Posts: 1036
Joined: Fri 17/10/2008 08:50
Location: Cambridge, Waikato NZ
Has thanked: 14 times
Been thanked: 214 times

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by cbm »

David wrote:Saving this here for posterity 8-o
Of course, still early days and it may miss us entirely
GFS seems to do this quite often in summer, the concern this time for me is how EC also has it coming close enough to do damage, and the context of what's already happened this year Image Was wondering if a town of more than a few hundred had ever been completely cut off by road with damage that was months not days to repair, then remembered that has actually happened, not that long ago with the Kaikoura earthquake. Whitianga and Tairua/Pauanui combined have >10k permanent residents.

Sent from my SM-S908E using Tapatalk

jamie
Posts: 5907
Joined: Fri 25/02/2011 21:35
Location: Hamilton NZ
Has thanked: 22 times
Been thanked: 273 times
Contact:

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by jamie »

Access nailed the last tropical flow over us. Access has it missing. Until it’s migrating south toward us I’m going to go with access to get a feel if we will be impacted or not.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Blowy
Posts: 103
Joined: Tue 10/03/2015 12:21
Location: Hawkes Bay
Has thanked: 57 times
Been thanked: 29 times

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by Blowy »

Could this be named Cyclone Len?
Yikes, 968 over AKL - Access coming into agreement too.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6316
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf
Has thanked: 502 times
Been thanked: 1146 times

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by Nev »

Blowy wrote: Tue 07/02/2023 02:40 Could this be named Cyclone Len?
Yikes, 968 over AKL - Access coming into agreement too.
No, it will either be named Gabrielle or Herman.
Also that GFS track map actually says 975 mb (hPa) near Akld in 168 hrs.
However, GFS now have its centre passing a little more NE of NZ.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6316
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf
Has thanked: 502 times
Been thanked: 1146 times

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by Nev »

Good deep flaring convection overnight as this low intensifies, with SST's around 29-30C and low shear. BoM now expect to name it around Thursday morning.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
harveyt86
Posts: 145
Joined: Tue 18/06/2013 23:29
Location: Otahuhu, Auckland
Has thanked: 56 times
Been thanked: 19 times

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by harveyt86 »

As much as I love some good weather excitement, probably best for all involved if this one shoots off to the east.
harleyb
Posts: 251
Joined: Mon 23/09/2013 13:39
Location: Ashhurst
Has thanked: 141 times
Been thanked: 307 times

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by harleyb »

GFS the outlier at the moment
image.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
harveyt86
Posts: 145
Joined: Tue 18/06/2013 23:29
Location: Otahuhu, Auckland
Has thanked: 56 times
Been thanked: 19 times

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by harveyt86 »

GFS back in line. A lot of models currently showing a stall and painfully slow progress over upper North Island. Lots of time for things to change but going to be hard to look away from the models over the coming days.
JP.
Posts: 370
Joined: Mon 12/06/2006 15:16
Location: Christchurch
Has thanked: 38 times
Been thanked: 107 times

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by JP. »

harveyt86 wrote: Tue 07/02/2023 10:37 As much as I love some good weather excitement, probably best for all involved if this one shoots off to the east.
Agree with these thoughts, the last thing Auckland needs right now is more extreme weather
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6316
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf
Has thanked: 502 times
Been thanked: 1146 times

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by Nev »

JTWC have issued a TC Formation Alert this evening and, along with the BoM, has a high chance of this low becoming a TC from tomorrow. Still a little disorganised, but some good convective spiralling in the west and north quadrants. Max winds around 30 knots and down to 995 hPa.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
David
Posts: 7631
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 442 times
Been thanked: 882 times
Contact:

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by David »

GFS ensembles. The mean takes it just offshore to the east at 967 hPa
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Image
cbm
Posts: 1036
Joined: Fri 17/10/2008 08:50
Location: Cambridge, Waikato NZ
Has thanked: 14 times
Been thanked: 214 times

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by cbm »

David wrote:GFS ensembles. The mean takes it just offshore to the east at 967 hPa
Which is the worst spot for rain, which seems to be in its SW quadrant at that time.Image

Sent from my SM-S908E using Tapatalk

User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6316
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf
Has thanked: 502 times
Been thanked: 1146 times

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by Nev »

The BoM expect to name this tropical low later today and will likely intensify to Cat 3 by later tomorrow and remain at Cat 3 as it enters NZ's area of responsibility (AOR) on Saturday. Quite remarkable!
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
cbm
Posts: 1036
Joined: Fri 17/10/2008 08:50
Location: Cambridge, Waikato NZ
Has thanked: 14 times
Been thanked: 214 times

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by cbm »

Not sure I've ever seen the models so tightly aligned and predicting an event of this magnitude, this far out. Is there any hope that they all rely on the same source data and a tiny inaccuracy in a measurement by butterfly effect is leading to wrong prediction? We are still 6 days out.

Sent from my SM-S908E using Tapatalk

cbm
Posts: 1036
Joined: Fri 17/10/2008 08:50
Location: Cambridge, Waikato NZ
Has thanked: 14 times
Been thanked: 214 times

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by cbm »

cbm wrote:Not sure I've ever seen the models so tightly aligned and predicting an event of this magnitude, this far out. Is there any hope that they all rely on the same source data and a tiny inaccuracy in a measurement by butterfly effect is leading to wrong prediction? We are still 6 days out.

Sent from my SM-S908E using Tapatalk
Problem with that theory I guess is that is what the ensemble of runs takes into account and the outcomes are fairly tight.

Sent from my SM-S908E using Tapatalk


harveyt86
Posts: 145
Joined: Tue 18/06/2013 23:29
Location: Otahuhu, Auckland
Has thanked: 56 times
Been thanked: 19 times

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by harveyt86 »

cbm wrote: Wed 08/02/2023 10:10 Not sure I've ever seen the models so tightly aligned and predicting an event of this magnitude, this far out. Is there any hope that they all rely on the same source data and a tiny inaccuracy in a measurement by butterfly effect is leading to wrong prediction? We are still 6 days out.

Sent from my SM-S908E using Tapatalk
Yep it is quite concerning. You'd have to think, even with the tight alignment currently, that the orientation of NZ and the reliance on so many factors coming together to steer it directly to us (plus the current lead time), that the odds are still much better for a miss or less damaging swipe than a direct hit. Hopefully..
User avatar
TonyT
Moderator
Posts: 2941
Joined: Thu 08/05/2003 11:09
Location: Amberley, North Canterbury
Has thanked: 361 times
Been thanked: 1264 times

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by TonyT »

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best... At least people can't say they weren't warned.
User avatar
David
Posts: 7631
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 442 times
Been thanked: 882 times
Contact:

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by David »

Now appearing in MS severe weather outlook.
Tropical Cyclone expected to bring severe weather to northern New Zealand from Sunday onwards

A high pressure system is expected to move onto Aotearoa/New Zealand from the Tasman Sea by Friday.

Meanwhile, a tropical low in the Coral Sea is expected to develop into a Tropical Cyclone. MetService is monitoring the evolution of this system closely. More information can be found at www.metservice.com/warnings/tropical-cyclone-activity.

Indications are that it is likely to move southeastwards and lie northwest of the country over the weekend, approaching the north of the North Island on Monday. Easterly winds are likely to pick up about northern parts of the North Island during the weekend, and there is low confidence of both warning amounts of rain and severe gales for Northland.

On Monday, there is moderate confidence of warning amounts of rain for Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula and Gisborne. There is low confidence of warning amounts of rain for Waikato, Bay of Plenty and Hawke's Bay. There is moderate confidence of severe east to southeast gales for Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, Waikato, Bay of Plenty and Taupo.

Furthermore, large waves are likely to affect northern and eastern coastlines from Northland to Gisborne from Sunday into Monday.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Image
User avatar
David
Posts: 7631
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 442 times
Been thanked: 882 times
Contact:

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by David »

GFS wants to take it below 960 8-o
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Image
harveyt86
Posts: 145
Joined: Tue 18/06/2013 23:29
Location: Otahuhu, Auckland
Has thanked: 56 times
Been thanked: 19 times

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by harveyt86 »

Getting a bit silly now...

All going to depend on what the high does. If it breaks down earlier than it could expose the west coast and South Island more. If it maintains its strength it will hopefully keep the centre north of the country. Still lots of changes to come I would imagine.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6316
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf
Has thanked: 502 times
Been thanked: 1146 times

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2022-23

Unread post by Nev »

JTWC has just issued its first TC Advisory and Track-map. No doubt the BoM will name her in the next few hours...
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Post Reply