NZ Weather Forum

TC Gabrielle has been named by the BoM this afternoon - so thought this TC warranted its own thread...

BoM have Gabrielle at 990 hPa, with max winds around 40 knots and expect her to intensify to Cat 2 overnight and continue to intensify into a severe Cat 3 later tomorrow.

Tonight's JTWC track-map...

This model consistency is quite remarkable. I keep expecting them to diverge or to start showing a miss. Surely the track won't stay locked in for an entire week leading up to the event.. When has that ever happened down here for any event?

BoM still have Gabrielle at Cat 1 this morning, but expect it to be Cat 2 later this morning. Central pressure currently 984 hPa, with max winds of 45 knots. An upper level trough over the Australian continent has begun steering Gabrielle to the SSE.

harveyt86 wrote:This model consistency is quite remarkable. I keep expecting them to diverge or to start showing a miss. Surely the track won't stay locked in for an entire week leading up to the event.. When has that ever happened down here for any event?

My thoughts too.

Question….does Norfolk Island have a rain radar?


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jamie wrote: ↑Thu 09/02/2023 08:56 Question….does Norfolk Island have a rain radar?

Yes..
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR623.loop.shtml#skip

Latest track-map from JTWC. Note, only goes up to Sunday morning, so doesn't show the dip south after that that most models are predicting...

Wouldn't be completely surprised to see that high pressure push the storm slightly west of where it is currently progged?

Gabrielle upgraded to Cat 2 this morning...

140km eye - she's a biggun!

The BoM are warning of possible gusts of 120-140 km/h over Norfolk Island during Saturday.
JTWC's track-maps seem to be getting shorter.

Gabrielle continues to intensify under very favourable conditions and the BoM expect her to become a Severe Cat 3 TC overnight.
Currently 981 hPa with max winds of 50 knots, increasing to 75 knots by tomorrow morning.

Gabrielle has been upgraded to a Severe Cat 3 TC this morning. Currently 969 hPa, with 65 knot max winds.
A ragged, cloud-filled eye has developed overnight

Gabrielle sporting a clearly visible eye today. Max winds have increased to 70 knots and maintaining 969 hPa.
BoM's track-map showing the little dip south toward's NZ.

Gabrielle has continued to intensify today. Currently 959 hPa, with max winds of 80 knots (150 km/h) and gusts to 110 knots (205 km/h). Not far off Cat 4. She will probably peak tonight, as she encounters cooler SST's and moderate shear from the west, although the shear is somewhat mitigated by being is in phase with the direction of the storm's motion. Gabrielle is also quite a large system, with gales extending about 200 NM (370 km) from the centre.

Nev wrote: ↑Fri 10/02/2023 20:35 Gabrielle has continued to intensify today. Currently 959 hPa, with max winds of 80 knots (150 km/h) and gusts to 110 knots (205 km/h). Not far off Cat 4. She will probably peak tonight, as she encounters cooler SST's and moderate shear from the west, although the shear is somewhat mitigated by being is in phase with the direction of the storm's motion. Gabrielle is also quite a large system, with gales extending about 200 NM (370 km) from the centre.

I see Norfolk Island are now expecting a Cat 3 impact instead of Cat 2.

darcyplumb wrote: ↑Fri 10/02/2023 21:16 I see Norfolk Island are now expecting a Cat 3 impact instead of Cat 2.

Yes, or still packing the punch of Cat 3 winds, as Gabrielle appears to have already begun transition and will probably be extratropical by tomorrow night.

Gabrielle downgraded to Cat 2 this morning after peaking late yesterday and is currently being decapitated by strengthening NW vertical wind shear, leaving a partially exposed shallow warm cored LLCC. Gales now extending to 240 NM (445 km/h) from the centre. Currently 972 hPa with max winds of 60 knots

Gabrielle maintaining Cat 2 about 200 km NW of Norfolk Island. Currently 965h hPa, with max winds of 60 knots.

Gabrielle maintaining intensity at 960 hPa with max winds of 60 knots, as she gradually evolves into a subtropical cyclone and moves rapidly towards Norfolk Island about 100km to her ESE.

Gabrielle has completed extratropical transition and has been reclassified as a vigorous subtropical low by MetService this morning. Currently around 968 hPa and about 550 km NW of Cape Reinga, where gusts of 133 km/h were recorded there around 6am this morning.

Gabrielle passed over Norfolk Island last night where the observed pressure fell to 958 hPa around midnight NZDT. Norfolk Aero looks to have avoided the strongest winds. Highest gusts recorded there yesterday were 102 km/h around 4:30pm and 85 km/h so far this morning at around 4am NZDT.