Cyclone Gabrielle impacts on NZ - Feb 12-16

[jamie]

This so often happens with cyclones. I swear if NZ was 150km east we would have had some serious hit of cyclones in the past 20 years. While it’s still too early to tell, this one could easily be another that swipes us.


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[David]

GFS still sticking to a Coromandel landfall. UKMO slightly east of that. EC seems to want to go even further east

[Nev]

Worth noting that JTWC favours GFS and NAVGEM at this stage, as they have performed best so far...

[David]

Quite concerning rain numbers in the latest MS severe weather watch.

Period: 59hrs from 1am Sun, 12 Feb - noon Tue, 14 Feb
Area: Northland, and Auckland including Great Barrier Island

Forecast: A period of significant heavy rain is possible from Sunday through to Tuesday, and rainfall amounts may reach 200 to 300 mm or more during this time. Note, the duration of the event and the amount of rain forecast is highly dependent on the track of Cyclone Gabrielle, and this Watch could be upgraded to an Orange or possibly Red warning in the coming days.

Period: 53hrs from 10am Sun, 12 Feb - 3pm Tue, 14 Feb
Area: Coromandel Peninsula

Forecast: A period of significant heavy rain is possible from Sunday through to Tuesday, and rainfall amounts may reach 200 to 400 mm or more during this time. Note, the duration of the event and the amount of rain forecast is highly dependent on the track of Cyclone Gabrielle, and this Watch could be upgraded to an Orange or possibly Red warning in the coming days.

Issued: 10:04am Fri 10 Feb
Next update: 9:00pm Fri 10 Feb

[cbm]

Just me, or has this morning's EC ( our time) brought it slightly back our way compared to last night?(it certainly has not gone further East). I'm taking little comfort from these wobbles, would need to see a clear trend East with every model run ( which could still happen but not seeing it yet )

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[Ash]

400mm of rain is perhaps on the cards in Hawke's Bay.
I can see why people are crossing fingers for it to blow out to sea, but it doesn't look likely on the maps and models.

[David]

Interesting to see marine warnings only showing 40 knots in Hauraki gulf Mon/Tue - seems on the low side

[BeaconHill]

Interesting to see marine warnings only showing 40 knots in Hauraki gulf Mon/Tue - seems on the low side

I have been looking at models on Windy.com, and seeing various places having forecast "gusts" of near 80 knots. Fingers crossed those do not eventuate, especially in areas with saturated soils.

[spwill]

A link here for observations from Norfolk Island, will be interesting to follow this next few days.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN60801 ... 4996.shtml

[Razor]

GFS latest run is still bringing the centre of proceedings into the AK and Coromandel region. Its not budging in that belief. lets see what the other model run updates show

[Richard]

ECMWF has the center passing back over the NI again as well.

[harveyt86]

Just catching up. Looks likes a lot of models thinking a bit further east but I wouldn't bet against that blocking high maintaining a bit of strength a moving it south like GFS thinks. That or it is the last one to budge. Regardless still looks like a lot of severe effects for many North Island areas.

Edit: Latest EC further east again...

[David]

Weird to see modelled paths were so aligned a few days ago and now not so much as it gets closer. EC is taking the centre well offshore now

[Ash]

Interesting.

[harveyt86]

Yep - I just couldnt see alignment staying like that through the course. My guess is GFS follows suit tomorrow. Could end up being a (justifiable) storm in a teacup if the models keep trending north/east. Imagine the general publics reaction.. Forecasters are damned if they do and damned if they don't! Not that I am in anyway writing this one off yet though.

[Ash]

Interesting.....gosh that would be tough on the forecasters. That must be based on the high holding fast.

[harleyb]

Hard to know but yes it does seem that it may head a bit further east than what we have been threatened with up until now. The weather junkie in me says 'bugger', but for everyone's sake (ours included) I do hope it ends up being a miss.

[Razor]

Well latest GFS update still brings a direct hit. See what tomorrow's updates and progress bring

[Ash]

Exactly. It looks as though it takes a slow turn to the South.

[Ash]

Latest on MetVUW has Auckland getting a multi-day soaking.
Still forecasting a central pressure in the 960's.

[Ash]

Wind strength will be interesting . Cyclone Cook caused alot of wind damage in Hawkes Bay, and I'm pretty sure this storm is stronger.

[harveyt86]

Big jog back west from EC this morn..

[Ash]

I like this series. Shows the big drop south, and what looks like the beginning of an extra tropical transition. It shows the spread of warm air which produce clouds, which are made up of moisture. Can also see the arm that is drawing moisture from the tropics.



https://www.metservice.com/maps-radar/s ... a-infrared

[harleyb]

Watching the models over the last few days, it's interesting to see how they have so consistently shown that dogleg in the forecast track, and the slight reintensification, as it nears NZ.
Just as interesting is the media frenzy over this. I even received an email yesterday from my insurance company giving me some advice on how to prepare for this storm. Never seen that before.
There will be some very eggy faces if Gabrielle ends up veering off to the east!

[Rangitane]

Metservice 5 day and " windy" have it veering east again. Still nudging Eastcape. Less rain for most tho still high winds. Interestingly Mets 3 day still shows a direct hit as it hasn't been updated. Let's hope it keeps veering.