Cyclone Gabrielle impacts on NZ - Feb 12-16

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sat 11/02/2023 08:39

Latest track-map from MetService (note that Gabrielle has since been downgraded to Cat 2 by the BoM)...

cbm · Unread post by **cbm** » Sat 11/02/2023 08:46

Rangitane wrote:Metservice 5 day and " windy" have it veering east again. Still nudging Eastcape. Less rain for most tho still high winds. Interestingly Mets 3 day still shows a direct hit as it hasn't been updated. Let's hope it keeps veering.

At least for me windy is still showing the EC from last night. There is an EC on tropical tidbits that is newer? It gets confusing as do they both show the same "control run" of the EC?

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Rangitane · Unread post by **Rangitane** » Sat 11/02/2023 09:02

If it comes close the worst rain damage will be orographic rather then convection. East Cape. Down slope gales for opotiki.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Sat 11/02/2023 09:21

This mornings run of EC has the low moving more west this morning so Auckland looks right in the firing line

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 11/02/2023 09:51

It is not a repeat of the flash flood we saw here in Auckland two weeks back but still plenty of rain modelled so there will certainly be problems for Auckland with land slips given the wet ground. Southwesterly is the wind direction we catch the most wind from in my part of town.

Rangitane · Unread post by **Rangitane** » Sat 11/02/2023 11:29

3 day forcast now supports worst case route. Bugger !

harveyt86 · Unread post by **harveyt86** » Sat 11/02/2023 12:18

Latest GFS slightly further east but still significant impacts. Most models seems pretty aligned now on bringing storm in close to coromandel then out over or just past East Cape.

Ash · Unread post by **Ash** » Sat 11/02/2023 12:23

The latest GFS on MetVUW is pretty rough. Expecting a real wallop from this one. The surf looks good here in Hawkes Bay from Thursday, so looking foward to that.
But the flood risk- that's the worry along with storm surge and damaging winds.

darcyplumb · Unread post by **darcyplumb** » Sat 11/02/2023 13:40

Just posting this link again for those who may have missed it the other day… looks like the fun has well and truly begun on Norfolk Island. http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN60801 ... 4996.shtml

Worth noting too that the outer bands of Gabrielle are now visible on MS Northland Radar.

darcyplumb · Unread post by **darcyplumb** » Sat 11/02/2023 14:02

Red warnings have been issued for Coromandel and Gisborne.

harveyt86 · Unread post by **harveyt86** » Sat 11/02/2023 16:29

Tracks looking fairly consistent now. That slow down/stall most are showing isn't great.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sat 11/02/2023 16:50

Norfolk Island currently down to 973 hPa with gusts to 102 km/h. Centre is still about 200 km to the WNW...

harleyb · Unread post by **harleyb** » Sat 11/02/2023 17:37

Latest GFS run still showing a brief deepening to the low 960s along with a turn towards the Auckland area late Monday. It's still 'all on' at this stage.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_swpac_10.png

Cherie · Unread post by **Cherie** » Sat 11/02/2023 19:34

Civil Defence now encouraging people in flood/coastal erosion prone areas of Coromandel to self evacuate. Sounds like the impact is going to be earlier than previously expected too.

https://youtu.be/jBCPmjHi4u4

darcyplumb · Unread post by **darcyplumb** » Sat 11/02/2023 19:49

Latest Norfolk Island pressure is 965hPa

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Sat 11/02/2023 20:03

darcyplumb wrote: ↑Sat 11/02/2023 19:49 Latest Norfolk Island pressure is 965hPa

Screenshot 2023-02-11 at 19-59-48 Norfolk Island - Daily Weather Observations.png

Rainfall numbers building too

RODALCO · Unread post by **RODALCO** » Sat 11/02/2023 20:54

Nullschool stills looks like TC Gabrielle is on target hitting the N.I.

2023-02-11_19-51-45.jpg

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Sat 11/02/2023 21:19

Gosh there are some scary rainfall numbers starting to appear in the Metservice rain projections. This must be getting close to locking in, I guess by tomorrow morning the path will look more obvious. I can see why they are worried about Coromandel in particular.

Ash · Unread post by **Ash** » Sat 11/02/2023 21:33

Yes big numbers for Hawkes Bay as well. 350mm in 24 hours

David · Unread post by **David** » Sat 11/02/2023 21:47

Latest EC seems to have the center coming a lot closer to Auckland than before (at least on the MS 5 day model page).

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Sat 11/02/2023 22:09

David wrote: ↑Sat 11/02/2023 21:47 Latest EC seems to have the center coming a lot closer to Auckland than before (at least on the MS 5 day model page).

Yup its started to fall into line with the GFS which is very concerning.

Coromandel I feel is at greater risk of a longer term issues if it gets cut off. forecast totals of 300-400mm and 130km/hr+ winds.

If there is any slip + power outage in Coromandel its likely they will remain isolated without power considerable time.

image.png

harveyt86 · Unread post by **harveyt86** » Sat 11/02/2023 22:31

Looking quite concerning. Question. What's the lowest pressure recorded over the upper Noth Island? Looking quite likely we will have something in the 960s on Monday/Tuesday

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sat 11/02/2023 23:06

Those readings out of Norfolk Island are concerning for you guys, also with the central pressure being closer too.
All the safest wishes from us down here in the South Island.

With this the latest surface models have increased heavy rainfall down the east coast through most of Canterbury too by mid week.
Much needed here although could be problematic if a lot falls in a short space.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 11/02/2023 23:26

Ash wrote: ↑Sat 11/02/2023 21:33 Yes big numbers for Hawkes Bay as well. 350mm in 24 hours

r
Hope this won't put dampers on the Art Deco Festival in Napier what my wife and I are coming up for next WE

Ash · Unread post by **Ash** » Sun 12/02/2023 05:43

Yes - will depend on how quickly it moves through, and when the clean up can happen.

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Cyclone Gabrielle impacts on NZ - Feb 12-16

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