Cyclone Gabrielle impacts on NZ - Feb 12-16

harveyt86 · Unread post by **harveyt86** » Sat 04/02/2023 22:11

That progged ex-TC showing on the models next weekend would do best to stay away for all the folk in Northern/eastern North Island. Long way out but a couple of weeks of sun would be nice!

harleyb · Unread post by **harleyb** » Sun 05/02/2023 09:08

harveyt86 wrote: ↑Sat 04/02/2023 22:11 That progged ex-TC showing on the models next weekend would do best to stay away for all the folk in Northern/eastern North Island. Long way out but a couple of weeks of sun would be nice!

GFS and EC have both picked it up, but still early days..

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_swpac_55.png

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harleyb · Unread post by **harleyb** » Mon 06/02/2023 07:31

Eyes to the north...

99P_gefs_latest.png

harleyb · Unread post by **harleyb** » Wed 08/02/2023 10:47

The last few model runs seem to be shifting this system closer to NZ than previously. NAVGEM has it going into the Tasman at present. Still early days but it's getting interesting...

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harleyb · Unread post by **harleyb** » Wed 08/02/2023 11:23

GFS and EC in close agreement on their latest runs. This would not be good for northern folk, nor for us here in the lower NI exposed to downslope easterlies...

GFS

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EC

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JP. · Unread post by **JP.** » Wed 08/02/2023 13:31

harleyb wrote: ↑Wed 08/02/2023 11:23 GFS and EC in close agreement on their latest runs. This would not be good for northern folk, nor for us here in the lower NI exposed to downslope easterlies...

GFS
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EC
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Yes, that is looking very scary for the upper north island early next week.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Thu 09/02/2023 10:06

Given how aligned the models have been for the last three days and that a direct hit on to NZ is looking highly likely at this early stage. A thread for this what is shaping up to be a major weather event may as well be started.

DeepBlueSky · Unread post by **DeepBlueSky** » Thu 09/02/2023 10:06

Looks like the Herald has broken the glass and started ring the alarm bells Worst storm this Century is the title of the article, https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/cyclone-g ... IFYIM7XRY/

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Thu 09/02/2023 10:27

Richard wrote: ↑Thu 09/02/2023 10:06 Given how aligned the models have been for the last three days and that a direct hit on to NZ is looking highly likely at this early stage. A thread for this what is shaping up to be a major weather event may as well be started.

Yep, have moved a few previous posts to this new thread.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Thu 09/02/2023 13:09

Nev wrote: ↑Thu 09/02/2023 10:27
Richard wrote: ↑Thu 09/02/2023 10:06 Given how aligned the models have been for the last three days and that a direct hit on to NZ is looking highly likely at this early stage. A thread for this what is shaping up to be a major weather event may as well be started.
Yep, have moved a few previous posts to this new thread.

Thanks Nev

David · Unread post by **David** » Thu 09/02/2023 13:14

Today's severe weather outlook from Metservice

Cyclone Gabrielle expected to bring significant severe weather to northern and central New Zealand from late Sunday onwards

Cyclone Gabrielle is expected to move southeastwards out of the tropics and lie north of the country by late weekend. Easterly winds are expected to pick up about northern parts of the North Island during the weekend, and there is moderate confidence of severe gales for Northland on Sunday, along with low confidence of warning amounts of rain.

Gabrielle is likely to approach the North Island on Monday, and possibly move onto northern parts of the Island on Tuesday.

There is high confidence of warning amounts of rain for Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, northern and eastern Waikato, Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne from Monday to Tuesday. For southern Gisborne and Hawke's Bay there is low confidence of warning amounts of rain on Monday but high confidence on Tuesday. Low confidence of warning amounts rain for the remainder of Waikato, Waitomo, Taumarunui, Taupo and northern Taranaki on Tuesday.

In addition, from Monday to Tuesday there is high confidence that severe gales from an easterly quarter will affect northern and central parts of the North Island, from Northland southwards to the central high country and Hawke's Bay, turning southwest about Northland and possibly Auckland on Tuesday.

There is moderate confidence that warning amounts of rain will affect Wairarapa, the Tararua Range and eastern Marlborough on Tuesday. Also on Tuesday, there is high confidence that east to southeast winds will reach severe gale about southern parts of the North Island from Taranaki to Wellington and Wairarapa, also about Marlborough, Nelson and northern Buller.

Very large waves and a storm surge are expected to affect northern and eastern coastlines from Northland to Gisborne from Sunday into Monday, spreading south to Marlborough on Tuesday.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Thu 09/02/2023 13:22

Latest GFS run- I hope its rogue - brings the storm lingering across the north and into the Tasman Sea where it will then move back, bringing in more eastern South Island impacts also

harleyb · Unread post by **harleyb** » Thu 09/02/2023 13:48

Razor wrote: ↑Thu 09/02/2023 13:22 Latest GFS run- I hope its rogue - brings the storm lingering across the north and into the Tasman Sea where it will then move back, bringing in more eastern South Island impacts also

GFS has gradually moved the track westward over the last few days and this latest run seems to continue that. Having such a deep centre located west of the upper NI is pretty much the worst case scenario for wind in our neck of the woods. It looks as though I'll be spending this weekend tying stuff down.

harveyt86 · Unread post by **harveyt86** » Thu 09/02/2023 16:09

Metservice have got the severe weather watches out early. On track to be a pretty historic event..

Ash · Unread post by **Ash** » Thu 09/02/2023 18:26

Yeah, a central pressure of 960 just off the coast.....NI begins to feel the effects on Sunday.

This is looking very interesting.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 09/02/2023 18:37

Looks brutal. High tide times will be something to watch as well. Tamaki Drive could be an interesting place during the high tides early next week, I'm picking the lower coastal parts of Kohimarama will be flooded by sea water.

Blowy · Unread post by **Blowy** » Thu 09/02/2023 19:35

Brutal yes.
And next one forming around 23rd?
Sheeesh

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Thu 09/02/2023 20:29

Latest run of EC now showing only 10mm for Christchurch, first sign of it veering more eastwards after impacting north island?

Blowy · Unread post by **Blowy** » Thu 09/02/2023 20:40

Access is the most accurate 174mm for you jokers, next 10 days. Windy.com

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Thu 09/02/2023 20:57

Blowy wrote: ↑Thu 09/02/2023 20:40 Access is the most accurate 174mm for you jokers, next 10 days. Windy.com

That is this mornings run still for ACCESS on windy.com…

harveyt86 · Unread post by **harveyt86** » Thu 09/02/2023 21:00

Yep latest EC looking to keep it further north and east. Although still pretty impactful for some by the looks.

Might be the start of some divergence between models now. Straight after getting in early to buy some emergency supplies..

Blowy · Unread post by **Blowy** » Thu 09/02/2023 21:02

you need to check rain accumulation , I follow Darfield 174mm https://www.windy.com/-Rain-accumulatio ... ,m:csBakWS

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Thu 09/02/2023 23:07

https://hwe.niwa.co.nz/event/December_1 ... one_Fergus

A past cyclone for comparison.

harveyt86 · Unread post by **harveyt86** » Fri 10/02/2023 07:06

Looking further east on most models this morning. Wonder if that trend will continue or if it will now be back and forth for a few days..

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Fri 10/02/2023 07:59

Not that it matters too much, but essentially Gabrielle is still a cyclone once it enters New Zealand waters with very high winds and deepening central pressure.
I really hope you guys come through unscathed up there, it's not nice being hit several times by mother nature we know all too well here in Canterbury with the floods and earthquakes even.

At this stage a moderate amount of rain is likely here, we actually need the rain and also the models hint at gale force Southeries for the coastlines of the south island on Wednesday.

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Cyclone Gabrielle impacts on NZ - Feb 12-16

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Re: Cyclone Gabrielle impacts on NZ - Feb 12-16

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Re: Cyclone Gabrielle impacts on NZ - Feb 12-16

Re: Cyclone Gabrielle impacts on NZ - Feb 12-16

Re: Cyclone Gabrielle impacts on NZ - Feb 12-16

Re: Cyclone Gabrielle impacts on NZ - Feb 12-16

Re: Cyclone Gabrielle impacts on NZ - Feb 12-16

Re: Cyclone Gabrielle impacts on NZ - Feb 12-16

Re: Cyclone Gabrielle impacts on NZ - Feb 12-16