NZ Weather Forum

The stop bank on the south side of the Tutaekuri River has failed. This will bring catastrophic flooding to the area. Already videos of many RSE workers on the roof of their accommodation cabins, with water almost up to the roof. The stop bank on the north side is apparently very close to breaching too, though the pressure may now be relieved and the Taradale and Napier area might be spared.

BeaconHill wrote: ↑Tue 14/02/2023 10:01 The stop bank on the south side of the Tutaekuri River has failed. This will bring catastrophic flooding to the area. Already videos of many RSE workers on the roof of their accommodation cabins, with water almost up to the roof. The stop bank on the north side is apparently very close to breaching too, though the pressure may now be relieved and the Taradale and Napier area might be spared.

Taradale has just been ordered to evacuate immediately and move to higher ground.

Hopefully the breached stop bank further up and the fact the rain has eased might mean this evacuation will only end up precautionary..

Some truly shocking scenes in the media in lots of different places. Truly wishing everyone up there all the best and lets hope this thing can clear out asap

Redclyffe Substation just to the south of Napier is apparently underwater. Could be a long time before power is restored to much of Napier area.

Visible satellite pic from this morning. It's blowing a full gale here in Palmy now, power out at Massey Uni.

Heavy rain watch for Banks Peninsula and Chch for tomorrow, but nothing like North Island. Plus our ground is relatively dry, not saturated from recent rain events like up north.

Windiest it had been for the whole event now here. Just heard what I assume to be a tree or big branch behind the house across the road crack and come down. Few more power outages for Auckland this arvo I imagine.

Just seen a video of that Broadfields bridge being washed out, water is very powerful people tend to underestimate it alot.
Also some pine plantations have been completely flattened in areas, reminds me of the big NWers we've had here in the past.

Rainfall totals pulled back abit for mid canterbury but still healthy totals and much needed. Some of the isolated showers we've had this morning have been abit heavy but has been dry for a few hours.
Rain band is moving south and high cloud is thickening here.

I was surprised to see another 70mm fell here after 10.30pm last night until earlier this morning. Only a very small amount of tree damage for my area.

The afternoon/evening thunderstorm risk modelled for Thursday over the North Island is something that will have to be watched now.

Ecan guage on the Kaikoura ranges has a 100mm so far today, still plenty of rain to come with an orange warning all day tomorrow

Tornado Tim wrote:Winds are howling in Hamilton! Yea Hamilton AWS doesnt seem to be representative of actual s.

Oddly the opposite is true today, only a moderate breeze for now whereas the Hamilton AWS showing higher gusts than it was last night. Might mean the wind is coming soon I guess. 7 large trees are down at the local park, a tornado went through it in 2008 and did far less damage than this.

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My gusts today are a a good 20km lower than last nights. Sometimes I do wonder what goes on with Hamilton’s airport site.


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3 days nonstop 100kph winds kerikeri peninsular. Missed the bad rains. Wind run over the 3 days would have to be around 4_ 5000 km. Never seen wind like this for so long.1 day E/SE 2 days S/SW

Wind has really ramped up a notch here in the last hour. Gusting to 76 km/h

Flightradar shows that they've pushed a Poseidon out at Ohakea, so perhaps we'll get a better idea of the state of things on the ground in Gisborne district, Wairoa and Hawke's Bay today. There's still very little communication with Wairoa and Gisborne.

Wildland wrote: ↑Wed 15/02/2023 08:18 Flightradar shows that they've pushed a Poseidon out at Ohakea, so perhaps we'll get a better idea of the state of things on the ground in Gisborne district, Wairoa and Hawke's Bay today. There's still very little communication with Wairoa and Gisborne.

It could possibly be for re supply of food, water and medicines. Wairoa is almost out of food and water as are other parts of the Hawkes Bay.

Interesting here in Lincoln, mainly patchy light rain but we have had a couple of short lived spells of absolutely torrential rain. Nothing too nasty on the wind front. Thoughts continue to be with those affected up the line

Razor wrote: ↑Wed 15/02/2023 13:28 Interesting here in Lincoln, mainly patchy light rain but we have had a couple of short lived spells of absolutely torrential rain. Nothing too nasty on the wind front. Thoughts continue to be with those affected up the line

Much the same here in Ashburton however the wind is now increasing. I was expecting a lot more rain from this but it just doesn’t seem to want to move onshore.

With family and friends in the stricken eastern part of the North Island, we’ve been following reports on RNZ National as they came in this morning. Here’s a bit of a snapshot we compiled for friends overseas who wanted an update. It’s a bit one-eyed but may be of interest here as well.


Hawke’s Bay –
Napier still without electricity after the 220 kV substation at Redclyffe was submerged in floodwater. This feeds much of the region from the national grid. Power won’t be properly restored for weeks.
Main telecommunication cables (fibre) severed cutting access to rest of NZ. Some traffic is flowing via low bandwidth connections but there is congestion. Mobile communications are patchy due to cell towers having to be powered by generators and access to connect and refuel them is difficult. Extensive road closures with bridges out.
More than 300 people were rescued from rooftops yesterday by a fantastic community effort by emergency services, military and local aviators who worked up until dark.

Wairoa – power out and no telecommunications. 15% of town under water – this happens to be the area where nearly half of the population live. Serious concerns over food supply and how to restock the town’s single supermarket with roads closed. Water supply fragile. RNZAF flew a pump into the town this morning to pump floodwater away from the water plant to maintain supply.

Gisborne and district –
Most of district without power due to severance of national grid. Minimal supply from Tuai power station and part of Gisborne city now has power. Telecommunications severed. Food can only be purchased with cash due to no EFTPOS service. Roads connecting to rest of country blocked in several places.
Water crisis in Gisborne city. Supply lines from Mangapoike are broken in several places. The Waipaoa treatment plant is struggling to clean the silt-laden river water as a back-up. Water supply is seriously low and in danger of running dry. Civil Defence unable to communicate the need for conservation to the public because fewer people listen to the radio and get their information from internet and social media instead. The council printed 22,000 copies of The Gisborne Herald this morning and these are being delivered to homes by hand as widely as possible to get emergency information out.
The 111 emergency service is only available to people who have working landlines.

darcyplumb wrote: ↑Wed 15/02/2023 13:34

Razor wrote: ↑Wed 15/02/2023 13:28 Interesting here in Lincoln, mainly patchy light rain but we have had a couple of short lived spells of absolutely torrential rain. Nothing too nasty on the wind front. Thoughts continue to be with those affected up the line

Much the same here in Ashburton however the wind is now increasing. I was expecting a lot more rain from this but it just doesn’t seem to want to move onshore.

Looks like it's a bit further east than expected, Metservice forecast today for Timaru prior to their 11am update mentioned " Rain with Heavy falls possible" however so far not a drop.

snowstormwatcher wrote: ↑Wed 15/02/2023 13:51

darcyplumb wrote: ↑Wed 15/02/2023 13:34

Much the same here in Ashburton however the wind is now increasing. I was expecting a lot more rain from this but it just doesn’t seem to want to move onshore.

Looks like it's a bit further east than expected, Metservice forecast today for Timaru prior to their 11am update mentioned " Rain with Heavy falls possible" however so far not a drop.

We had a heavy shower at 7am, 9am and again at 12.30pm, that’s it. Yesterday we were looking at 50mm plus. I’m hoping this means Kaikoura don’t get the rain they were expecting. There could have been big issues up there if the forecast eventuated.

Wildland - thank you for that concise and informative compilation at post #195.

snowstormwatcher wrote:

darcyplumb wrote: ↑Wed 15/02/2023 13:34 Much the same here in Ashburton however the wind is now increasing. I was expecting a lot more rain from this but it just doesn’t seem to want to move onshore.

Looks like it's a bit further east than expected, Metservice forecast today for Timaru prior to their 11am update mentioned " Rain with Heavy falls possible" however so far not a drop.

Which is why I mainly follow GFS (Metvuw) for this area....bang on again today

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jamie wrote: ↑Sun 12/02/2023 16:58 yea the Taupo thing is something I’ve been discussing with friends. It’s sure to be a big concern for them and anyone on the lake and river system.
Mercury cocked it up by running the lake too full in Jan. now they are paying the price.


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How're things looking now most of the rain has passed? The very lower reaches were still very high as I drove past on SH1 Friday evening from all the previous rain..