Cyclone Gabrielle impacts on NZ - Feb 12-16

Weather reports, prognostics, questions and discussion. Climate diagnostics, drivers, and outlooks. Weather stations and websites.
harveyt86
Posts: 137
Joined: Tue 18/06/2013 23:29
Location: Otahuhu, Auckland
Has thanked: 48 times
Been thanked: 18 times

Cyclone Gabrielle impacts on NZ - Feb 12-16

Unread post by harveyt86 »

That progged ex-TC showing on the models next weekend would do best to stay away for all the folk in Northern/eastern North Island. Long way out but a couple of weeks of sun would be nice!
harleyb
Posts: 219
Joined: Mon 23/09/2013 13:39
Location: Ashhurst
Has thanked: 121 times
Been thanked: 256 times

Re: General February Weather

Unread post by harleyb »

harveyt86 wrote: Sat 04/02/2023 22:11 That progged ex-TC showing on the models next weekend would do best to stay away for all the folk in Northern/eastern North Island. Long way out but a couple of weeks of sun would be nice!
GFS and EC have both picked it up, but still early days..
ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_swpac_55.png
gfs_mslp_pcpn_swpac_31.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
harleyb
Posts: 219
Joined: Mon 23/09/2013 13:39
Location: Ashhurst
Has thanked: 121 times
Been thanked: 256 times

Re: General February Weather

Unread post by harleyb »

Eyes to the north...
99P_gefs_latest.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
harleyb
Posts: 219
Joined: Mon 23/09/2013 13:39
Location: Ashhurst
Has thanked: 121 times
Been thanked: 256 times

Re: General February Weather

Unread post by harleyb »

The last few model runs seem to be shifting this system closer to NZ than previously. NAVGEM has it going into the Tasman at present. Still early days but it's getting interesting...
image.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
harleyb
Posts: 219
Joined: Mon 23/09/2013 13:39
Location: Ashhurst
Has thanked: 121 times
Been thanked: 256 times

Re: General February Weather

Unread post by harleyb »

GFS and EC in close agreement on their latest runs. This would not be good for northern folk, nor for us here in the lower NI exposed to downslope easterlies...

GFS
image.png
EC
image.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
JP.
Posts: 342
Joined: Mon 12/06/2006 15:16
Location: Christchurch
Has thanked: 30 times
Been thanked: 98 times

Re: General February Weather

Unread post by JP. »

harleyb wrote: Wed 08/02/2023 11:23 GFS and EC in close agreement on their latest runs. This would not be good for northern folk, nor for us here in the lower NI exposed to downslope easterlies...

GFS
image.png

EC
image.png
Yes, that is looking very scary for the upper north island early next week.
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 8360
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1640 times
Been thanked: 795 times

Cyclone Gabrielle Feb 2023

Unread post by Richard »

Given how aligned the models have been for the last three days and that a direct hit on to NZ is looking highly likely at this early stage. A thread for this what is shaping up to be a major weather event may as well be started.
DeepBlueSky
Posts: 3
Joined: Sun 14/08/2011 21:10
Location: Somerfield, Christchurch
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0

Re: General February Weather

Unread post by DeepBlueSky »

Looks like the Herald has broken the glass and started ring the alarm bells Worst storm this Century is the title of the article, https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/cyclone-g ... IFYIM7XRY/
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6208
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf
Has thanked: 467 times
Been thanked: 1054 times

Re: Cyclone Gabrielle impacts on NZ - Feb 12-16

Unread post by Nev »

Richard wrote: Thu 09/02/2023 10:06 Given how aligned the models have been for the last three days and that a direct hit on to NZ is looking highly likely at this early stage. A thread for this what is shaping up to be a major weather event may as well be started.
Yep, have moved a few previous posts to this new thread. :-)
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 8360
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1640 times
Been thanked: 795 times

Re: Cyclone Gabrielle impacts on NZ - Feb 12-16

Unread post by Richard »

Nev wrote: Thu 09/02/2023 10:27
Richard wrote: Thu 09/02/2023 10:06 Given how aligned the models have been for the last three days and that a direct hit on to NZ is looking highly likely at this early stage. A thread for this what is shaping up to be a major weather event may as well be started.
Yep, have moved a few previous posts to this new thread. :-)
Thanks Nev
User avatar
David
Posts: 7574
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 416 times
Been thanked: 818 times
Contact:

Re: Cyclone Gabrielle impacts on NZ - Feb 12-16

Unread post by David »

Today's severe weather outlook from Metservice
Cyclone Gabrielle expected to bring significant severe weather to northern and central New Zealand from late Sunday onwards

Cyclone Gabrielle is expected to move southeastwards out of the tropics and lie north of the country by late weekend. Easterly winds are expected to pick up about northern parts of the North Island during the weekend, and there is moderate confidence of severe gales for Northland on Sunday, along with low confidence of warning amounts of rain.

Gabrielle is likely to approach the North Island on Monday, and possibly move onto northern parts of the Island on Tuesday.

There is high confidence of warning amounts of rain for Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, northern and eastern Waikato, Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne from Monday to Tuesday. For southern Gisborne and Hawke's Bay there is low confidence of warning amounts of rain on Monday but high confidence on Tuesday. Low confidence of warning amounts rain for the remainder of Waikato, Waitomo, Taumarunui, Taupo and northern Taranaki on Tuesday.

In addition, from Monday to Tuesday there is high confidence that severe gales from an easterly quarter will affect northern and central parts of the North Island, from Northland southwards to the central high country and Hawke's Bay, turning southwest about Northland and possibly Auckland on Tuesday.

There is moderate confidence that warning amounts of rain will affect Wairarapa, the Tararua Range and eastern Marlborough on Tuesday. Also on Tuesday, there is high confidence that east to southeast winds will reach severe gale about southern parts of the North Island from Taranaki to Wellington and Wairarapa, also about Marlborough, Nelson and northern Buller.

Very large waves and a storm surge are expected to affect northern and eastern coastlines from Northland to Gisborne from Sunday into Monday, spreading south to Marlborough on Tuesday.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Image
Razor
Moderator
Posts: 5105
Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
Location: Halswell, Christchurch
Has thanked: 712 times
Been thanked: 900 times

Re: Cyclone Gabrielle impacts on NZ - Feb 12-16

Unread post by Razor »

Latest GFS run- I hope its rogue - brings the storm lingering across the north and into the Tasman Sea where it will then move back, bringing in more eastern South Island impacts also
Christchurch Rocks
harleyb
Posts: 219
Joined: Mon 23/09/2013 13:39
Location: Ashhurst
Has thanked: 121 times
Been thanked: 256 times

Re: Cyclone Gabrielle impacts on NZ - Feb 12-16

Unread post by harleyb »

Razor wrote: Thu 09/02/2023 13:22 Latest GFS run- I hope its rogue - brings the storm lingering across the north and into the Tasman Sea where it will then move back, bringing in more eastern South Island impacts also
GFS has gradually moved the track westward over the last few days and this latest run seems to continue that. Having such a deep centre located west of the upper NI is pretty much the worst case scenario for wind in our neck of the woods. It looks as though I'll be spending this weekend tying stuff down. o_O
harveyt86
Posts: 137
Joined: Tue 18/06/2013 23:29
Location: Otahuhu, Auckland
Has thanked: 48 times
Been thanked: 18 times

Re: Cyclone Gabrielle impacts on NZ - Feb 12-16

Unread post by harveyt86 »

Metservice have got the severe weather watches out early. On track to be a pretty historic event..
Ash
Posts: 84
Joined: Wed 14/02/2018 20:47
Location: Napier
Has thanked: 25 times
Been thanked: 26 times

Re: Cyclone Gabrielle impacts on NZ - Feb 12-16

Unread post by Ash »

Yeah, a central pressure of 960 just off the coast.....NI begins to feel the effects on Sunday.

This is looking very interesting.
spwill
Posts: 9897
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland
Has thanked: 830 times
Been thanked: 864 times

Re: Cyclone Gabrielle impacts on NZ - Feb 12-16

Unread post by spwill »

Looks brutal. High tide times will be something to watch as well. Tamaki Drive could be an interesting place during the high tides early next week, I'm picking the lower coastal parts of Kohimarama will be flooded by sea water.
Blowy
Posts: 96
Joined: Tue 10/03/2015 12:21
Location: Hawkes Bay
Has thanked: 55 times
Been thanked: 25 times

Re: Cyclone Gabrielle impacts on NZ - Feb 12-16

Unread post by Blowy »

Brutal yes.
And next one forming around 23rd?
Sheeesh
Bradley
Posts: 1516
Joined: Wed 01/05/2013 21:06
Location: Christchurch
Has thanked: 142 times
Been thanked: 269 times

Re: Cyclone Gabrielle impacts on NZ - Feb 12-16

Unread post by Bradley »

Latest run of EC now showing only 10mm for Christchurch, first sign of it veering more eastwards after impacting north island?
Blowy
Posts: 96
Joined: Tue 10/03/2015 12:21
Location: Hawkes Bay
Has thanked: 55 times
Been thanked: 25 times

Re: Cyclone Gabrielle impacts on NZ - Feb 12-16

Unread post by Blowy »

Access is the most accurate 174mm for you jokers, next 10 days. Windy.com
Bradley
Posts: 1516
Joined: Wed 01/05/2013 21:06
Location: Christchurch
Has thanked: 142 times
Been thanked: 269 times

Re: Cyclone Gabrielle impacts on NZ - Feb 12-16

Unread post by Bradley »

Blowy wrote: Thu 09/02/2023 20:40 Access is the most accurate 174mm for you jokers, next 10 days. Windy.com
That is this mornings run still for ACCESS on windy.com…
harveyt86
Posts: 137
Joined: Tue 18/06/2013 23:29
Location: Otahuhu, Auckland
Has thanked: 48 times
Been thanked: 18 times

Re: Cyclone Gabrielle impacts on NZ - Feb 12-16

Unread post by harveyt86 »

Yep latest EC looking to keep it further north and east. Although still pretty impactful for some by the looks.

Might be the start of some divergence between models now. Straight after getting in early to buy some emergency supplies..
Blowy
Posts: 96
Joined: Tue 10/03/2015 12:21
Location: Hawkes Bay
Has thanked: 55 times
Been thanked: 25 times

Re: Cyclone Gabrielle impacts on NZ - Feb 12-16

Unread post by Blowy »

you need to check rain accumulation , I follow Darfield 174mm https://www.windy.com/-Rain-accumulatio ... ,m:csBakWS
tich
Posts: 3462
Joined: Sat 15/03/2003 18:32
Location: Christchurch (St Albans)/Akaroa
Has thanked: 21 times
Been thanked: 90 times

Re: Cyclone Gabrielle impacts on NZ - Feb 12-16

Unread post by tich »

harveyt86
Posts: 137
Joined: Tue 18/06/2013 23:29
Location: Otahuhu, Auckland
Has thanked: 48 times
Been thanked: 18 times

Re: Cyclone Gabrielle impacts on NZ - Feb 12-16

Unread post by harveyt86 »

Looking further east on most models this morning. Wonder if that trend will continue or if it will now be back and forth for a few days..
User avatar
Storm Struck
Posts: 4843
Joined: Wed 17/11/2004 21:25
Location: Belfast Christchurch
Has thanked: 23 times
Been thanked: 365 times

Re: Cyclone Gabrielle impacts on NZ - Feb 12-16

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Not that it matters too much, but essentially Gabrielle is still a cyclone once it enters New Zealand waters with very high winds and deepening central pressure.
I really hope you guys come through unscathed up there, it's not nice being hit several times by mother nature we know all too well here in Canterbury with the floods and earthquakes even.

At this stage a moderate amount of rain is likely here, we actually need the rain and also the models hint at gale force Southeries for the coastlines of the south island on Wednesday.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
Post Reply