General March Weather

Weather reports, prognostics, questions and discussion. Climate diagnostics, drivers, and outlooks. Weather stations and websites.
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General March Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Yes Well ! .... after February, what can we expect for March, the first month of Autumn for this year, fine weather for the North Island ?
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by spwill »

There is a change in weather pattern.
A negative phase of the SAM coming up.
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by Razor »

Yes looks like a good old fashioned Westerly system looming.
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by TonyT »

Model guidance is progging a major MJO blow out into phases 7 & 8 from the second week of March. These are the phases which favour east/northeast airflow and low pressure systems over or near NZ.
ECMF_BC(10).png
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by cbm »

TonyT wrote:Model guidance is progging a major MJO blow out into phases 7 & 8 from the second week of March. These are the phases which favour east/northeast airflow and low pressure systems over or near NZ.
ECMF_BC(10).png
Not good news then.

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General March Weather

Unread post by jamie »

Agghhhh FFS. That’s not ideal Tony. Curious to know, how strong was the MJO for the period end of Jan and mid Feb? Don’t think I’ve ever seen it as strong as what you’ve put up just now Tony.


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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by TonyT »

jamie wrote: Wed 01/03/2023 12:30 Agghhhh FFS. That’s not ideal Tony. Curious to know, how strong was the MJO for the period end of Jan and mid Feb? Don’t think I’ve ever seen it as strong as what you’ve put up just now Tony.
rmm.phase.Last90days.gif
Here's the actual, but what I posted before is just a forecast! But you are right, this is a strong MJO signal, and it's present in many of the models. Remember, it's a flavour to the day to day weather, not a dish of itself. The MJO spent the first half of February sailing merrily along from phase 4 to 6, which could be described as "4 - southeasterly with incoming HP", "5 - HP over the SI, light E over the NI", "6 - blocking HP east of NZ, LP north Tasman, NE airflow". The second half of Feb it noodled around phase 7 "LP north of NZ, easterly airflow".

Phase 8 favours low pressure over southern and central NZ, and more SW airflow to the northern NI. We haven't yet had any phase 8 influence over NZ in the last 3 months. I would suggest phase 7 & 8 are more common in the autumn months than summer. La Niña seasons favour the right hand side of the chart.
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by spwill »

I see there are reports of a funnel cloud over west Auckland this afternoon . We had some sea breeze convergence cumulus this afternoon.
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

A mainly fine and warm autumnal day with light NE. A bit of a throw over shower around lunch time and then clearing. 25.3C for today. Mild evening.
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by Simon Culling »

spwill wrote: Wed 01/03/2023 19:13 I see there are reports of a funnel cloud over west Auckland this afternoon . We had some sea breeze convergence cumulus this afternoon.
I think this is the FC you were referring to - photo from NIWA Twitter.

https://twitter.com/NiwaWeather/status/ ... 8841913344
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by JP. »

Christchurch under another scorcher today 32.6c at Jeffs station in Hoon Hay. Very light NE breeze
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by spwill »

Simon Culling wrote: Thu 02/03/2023 01:45
spwill wrote: Wed 01/03/2023 19:13 I see there are reports of a funnel cloud over west Auckland this afternoon . We had some sea breeze convergence cumulus this afternoon.
I think this is the FC you were referring to - photo from NIWA Twitter.

https://twitter.com/NiwaWeather/status/ ... 8841913344
I think for England and New Zealand this type of funnel cloud is probably fairly common in Summer but usually small and short lived and many will go unnoticed.
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by Razor »

Summer rolls on down here, 30 degrees in Lincoln
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by Andy »

30 deg here in Alex as well
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Warm day here too with a fine day and light sea-breeze effect SE. 28.2C
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Nice and fine at the moment.
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by Orion »

Some impressive white towers visible to the south.

Currently north-easterly breeze, 22.9°C outside and 25.2°C inside with all the windows open, looking forward to some coolth.
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Orion wrote: Fri 03/03/2023 18:56 Some impressive white towers visible to the south.
Keeping an eye on those but nothing underneath. I see some red on showers moving west to east around the Oamaru distinct.
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by Richard »

I'm keeping an eye on bugger all up this way
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by Classicford »

Thunder heard just now inland from Waimate.
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by Classicford »

Looking west from my property over the hunter hills where I can hear thunder.
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by Richard »

Classicford wrote: Fri 03/03/2023 20:08 Thunder heard just now inland from Waimate.
Looks very weak. Been a real bust today in the forecast
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by Classicford »

Loud thunder now!
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Heavy showers south Canterbury today, now moving to mid Canterbury now. Worth keeping eye on if it creeps closer I'll head out. Ashburton residents keep eyes peeled!
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Re: General March Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Nothing much here, Mike. Nice fine warm day with some weak Cu towers west of here this afternoon. Light winds. 24.3C for today.
Southerly through around 8pm with low stratus moving through and some drizzle.
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