NZ Weather Forum

Yes Well ! .... after February, what can we expect for March, the first month of Autumn for this year, fine weather for the North Island ?

There is a change in weather pattern.
A negative phase of the SAM coming up.

Yes looks like a good old fashioned Westerly system looming.

Model guidance is progging a major MJO blow out into phases 7 & 8 from the second week of March. These are the phases which favour east/northeast airflow and low pressure systems over or near NZ.

TonyT wrote:Model guidance is progging a major MJO blow out into phases 7 & 8 from the second week of March. These are the phases which favour east/northeast airflow and low pressure systems over or near NZ.

ECMF_BC(10).png

Not good news then.

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Agghhhh FFS. That’s not ideal Tony. Curious to know, how strong was the MJO for the period end of Jan and mid Feb? Don’t think I’ve ever seen it as strong as what you’ve put up just now Tony.


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jamie wrote: ↑Wed 01/03/2023 12:30 Agghhhh FFS. That’s not ideal Tony. Curious to know, how strong was the MJO for the period end of Jan and mid Feb? Don’t think I’ve ever seen it as strong as what you’ve put up just now Tony.

Here's the actual, but what I posted before is just a forecast! But you are right, this is a strong MJO signal, and it's present in many of the models. Remember, it's a flavour to the day to day weather, not a dish of itself. The MJO spent the first half of February sailing merrily along from phase 4 to 6, which could be described as "4 - southeasterly with incoming HP", "5 - HP over the SI, light E over the NI", "6 - blocking HP east of NZ, LP north Tasman, NE airflow". The second half of Feb it noodled around phase 7 "LP north of NZ, easterly airflow".

Phase 8 favours low pressure over southern and central NZ, and more SW airflow to the northern NI. We haven't yet had any phase 8 influence over NZ in the last 3 months. I would suggest phase 7 & 8 are more common in the autumn months than summer. La Niña seasons favour the right hand side of the chart.

I see there are reports of a funnel cloud over west Auckland this afternoon . We had some sea breeze convergence cumulus this afternoon.

A mainly fine and warm autumnal day with light NE. A bit of a throw over shower around lunch time and then clearing. 25.3C for today. Mild evening.

spwill wrote: ↑Wed 01/03/2023 19:13 I see there are reports of a funnel cloud over west Auckland this afternoon . We had some sea breeze convergence cumulus this afternoon.

I think this is the FC you were referring to - photo from NIWA Twitter.

https://twitter.com/NiwaWeather/status/ ... 8841913344

Christchurch under another scorcher today 32.6c at Jeffs station in Hoon Hay. Very light NE breeze

Simon Culling wrote: ↑Thu 02/03/2023 01:45

spwill wrote: ↑Wed 01/03/2023 19:13 I see there are reports of a funnel cloud over west Auckland this afternoon . We had some sea breeze convergence cumulus this afternoon.

I think this is the FC you were referring to - photo from NIWA Twitter.

https://twitter.com/NiwaWeather/status/ ... 8841913344

I think for England and New Zealand this type of funnel cloud is probably fairly common in Summer but usually small and short lived and many will go unnoticed.

Summer rolls on down here, 30 degrees in Lincoln

30 deg here in Alex as well

Warm day here too with a fine day and light sea-breeze effect SE. 28.2C

Nice and fine at the moment.

Some impressive white towers visible to the south.

Currently north-easterly breeze, 22.9°C outside and 25.2°C inside with all the windows open, looking forward to some coolth.

Orion wrote: ↑Fri 03/03/2023 18:56 Some impressive white towers visible to the south.

Keeping an eye on those but nothing underneath. I see some red on showers moving west to east around the Oamaru distinct.

I'm keeping an eye on bugger all up this way

Thunder heard just now inland from Waimate.

Looking west from my property over the hunter hills where I can hear thunder.

Classicford wrote: ↑Fri 03/03/2023 20:08 Thunder heard just now inland from Waimate.

Looks very weak. Been a real bust today in the forecast

Loud thunder now!

Heavy showers south Canterbury today, now moving to mid Canterbury now. Worth keeping eye on if it creeps closer I'll head out. Ashburton residents keep eyes peeled!

Nothing much here, Mike. Nice fine warm day with some weak Cu towers west of here this afternoon. Light winds. 24.3C for today.
Southerly through around 8pm with low stratus moving through and some drizzle.