TC Freddy - will it become the longest tracked storm?

Discussion of weather and climate outside of NZ's waters. Australian weather, tropical cyclones and USA storm chasing feature here.
Post Reply
BeaconHill
Posts: 245
Joined: Sat 16/05/2009 21:10
Location: Strathmore/Seatoun (on the ridgeline), Wellington
Has thanked: 203 times
Been thanked: 366 times

TC Freddy - will it become the longest tracked storm?

Unread post by BeaconHill »

Noted this on Twitter saying Freddy has drifted back out to sea and sprung back into action…
56706276-BF76-4BD1-BD9D-93F5CA280579.jpeg
Apparently “John” in 1994 lasted 31 days. Not quite sure on the duration of Freddy, but comments say it is getting close to that record.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
darcyplumb
Posts: 802
Joined: Sun 06/12/2020 20:15
Location: Ashburton
Has thanked: 1776 times
Been thanked: 448 times

Re: TC Freddy - will it become the longest tracked storm?

Unread post by darcyplumb »

BeaconHill wrote: Sun 05/03/2023 12:19 Noted this on Twitter saying Freddy has drifted back out to sea and sprung back into action…

56706276-BF76-4BD1-BD9D-93F5CA280579.jpeg

Apparently “John” in 1994 lasted 31 days. Not quite sure on the duration of Freddy, but comments say it is getting close to that record.
I believe Freddy is now at Day 29.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6316
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf
Has thanked: 502 times
Been thanked: 1146 times

Re: TC Freddy - will it become the longest tracked storm?

Unread post by Nev »

Freddy hasn't been a TC for all of that time though.

TC Freddy was named by the BoM on Feb O6, traversed the Indian Ocean as a Cat 5 before crossing Madagascar and making landfall again in Mozambique on Feb 25, where it rapidly weakened and was reclassified as an overland depression, with max winds dropping below TC strength by Feb 28. It then re-entered the Mozambique Channel on Mar 03 and regained TC strength yesterday on Mar 04.

Freddy is, however, now the longest-lived TC in the Southern Hemisphere, beating TC Leon-Eline's record of 18 and half days in Feb 2000.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6316
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf
Has thanked: 502 times
Been thanked: 1146 times

Re: TC Freddy - will it become the longest tracked storm?

Unread post by Nev »

One or two other records of note:

TC Freddy also holds the Southern Hemisphere record for all-time accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), a measure of the storm’s strength over time. It generated about 66 units of ACE, beating the previous record of 53 units formerly held by TC Fantala in 2016. Only two Atlantic hurricanes have had a higher lifetime ACE index than Freddy - Hurricane Three in 1899 (ACE: 73.6) and Hurricane Ivan in 2004 (ACE: 70.4).

Freddy was the first TC in the Southern Hemisphere to undergo four separate rounds of rapid intensification, which occurred due to repeated bursts of wind shear that weakened the storm and then subsided.

Freddy was one of only four systems to traverse the entirety of the southern Indian Ocean from east to west; the others were TC's Litanne in 1994 and Leon–Eline and Hudah in 2000.

Ref: 'Tropical Cyclone Freddy Breaks Records before Lashing Madagascar' - NOAA
harleyb
Posts: 251
Joined: Mon 23/09/2013 13:39
Location: Ashhurst
Has thanked: 141 times
Been thanked: 307 times

Re: TC Freddy - will it become the longest tracked storm?

Unread post by harleyb »

That's amazing! I had forgotten about Freddy and am amazed that he still exists and is re-intensifying yet again. Surely the next landfall will be the last... or will it?
image.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
harleyb
Posts: 251
Joined: Mon 23/09/2013 13:39
Location: Ashhurst
Has thanked: 141 times
Been thanked: 307 times

Re: TC Freddy - will it become the longest tracked storm?

Unread post by harleyb »

User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6316
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf
Has thanked: 502 times
Been thanked: 1146 times

Re: TC Freddy - will it become the longest tracked storm?

Unread post by Nev »

I'll be interested to see if the WMO counts the 7 days or so that Freddy fell below TC strength while overland in Mozambique, particularly as Hurricane/Typhoon John never lost TC strength throughout its entire 31 days in the north Pacific.

Freddy is currently the equivalent of a high-end Cat 3 TC on the BoM Scale.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6316
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf
Has thanked: 502 times
Been thanked: 1146 times

Re: TC Freddy - will it become the longest tracked storm?

Unread post by Nev »

After a burst of rapid intensification yesterday, TC Freddy has once again rapidly weakened under stubborn mid-level shear and dry air intrusion (currently Cat 2). This weakening trend could continue over the next 12 hours, before a possible resumption of intensification after 24 hours as Freddy approaches the coast of Mozambique.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6316
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf
Has thanked: 502 times
Been thanked: 1146 times

Re: TC Freddy - will it become the longest tracked storm?

Unread post by Nev »

Freddy's track has slowed somewhat as it encounters more favourable conditions, allowing more time to reintensify before it makes landfall (if at all), which might not be until Sunday... Models are very divided on track and speed, with GFS consistently bringing Freddy back into Mozambique Channel not long after landfall.

JTWC notes that, "Freddy is like a B-reel horror movie that never ends... it may not stay over land for long"...
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6316
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf
Has thanked: 502 times
Been thanked: 1146 times

Re: TC Freddy - will it become the longest tracked storm?

Unread post by Nev »

Snippet from the WMO's latest Press Release this afternoon:
'Tropical Cyclone Freddy may set new record' - WMO

... "The WMO Weather and Climate Extremes Archive are currently assembling a blue-ribbon international committee of scientists. Once the tropical cyclone has dissipated, these experts will begin a detailed examination of the raw data to determine if Freddy has indeed established a record as the longest-duration tropical cyclone on record. One question that we will be addressing is the fact that throughout its long lifetime, the storm has periodically weakened below tropical storm status. We will obviously need to address if that is a concern in our evaluation," said Prof. Randall Cerveny, WMO Weather and Climate Extremes rapporteur. "Our evaluations are detailed scientific inquiries so they do take time," he said. ...
Freddy's centre is now less than 100km from the Mozambique coast as it continues to strengthen (currently the equivalent of a mid Cat 3 TC) and moves slowly towards the Zambezi province, where it is expected to make landfall probably near Quelimane in the next 12 to 24 hours...
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6316
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf
Has thanked: 502 times
Been thanked: 1146 times

Re: TC Freddy - will it become the longest tracked storm?

Unread post by Nev »

Freddy made landfall on the Mozambique coast near the town Quelimane at 5:15am NZDT this morning (11 1615z), with 10 minute max winds of 85 knots (155 km/h), gusting to 120 knots (220 km/h). Some of yesterday's 0000z main model runs show Freddy eventually doing a U-turn back into the Mozambique Channel, while others have him dissipating further inland...
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Razor
Moderator
Posts: 5324
Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
Location: Halswell, Christchurch
Has thanked: 819 times
Been thanked: 1064 times

Re: TC Freddy - will it become the longest tracked storm?

Unread post by Razor »

Looks like freddy has finally met his inland graveyard. What a journey!
image.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Christchurch Rocks
BeaconHill
Posts: 245
Joined: Sat 16/05/2009 21:10
Location: Strathmore/Seatoun (on the ridgeline), Wellington
Has thanked: 203 times
Been thanked: 366 times

Re: TC Freddy - will it become the longest tracked storm?

Unread post by BeaconHill »

Stumbled across this on Twitter. Nice summary!
071EA53B-61B4-41CB-B1DC-40D10E302AEF.jpeg
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6316
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf
Has thanked: 502 times
Been thanked: 1146 times

Re: TC Freddy - will it become the longest tracked storm?

Unread post by Nev »

Yes, Freddy fell below TC strength early on Sunday morning NZDT and has continued to weaken.
Even if Freddy did head back offshore, conditions there no longer look favourable for any redevelopment...

Note that (as mentioned) RSMC La Reunion had landfall at 11 1615z, while JTWC had it slightly later at 11 1800z (Saturday morning NZDT).
So for posterity, below is also the 1800z sat-pic showing a somewhat tighter pinhole eye at landfall.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6316
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf
Has thanked: 502 times
Been thanked: 1146 times

Re: TC Freddy - will it become the longest tracked storm?

Unread post by Nev »

I've put together this wind speed graph showing both 10-minute max winds and 1-minute max winds (note that 1-minute winds are generally about 14% higher than 10-minute winds). The background TC categories are based on the Australian scale.

Also note the drops in intensity to below TC strength after Freddy made its first landfall on the island of Madagascar as a high-end Cat 3 TC on Feb 21 1500z, its second landfall on the coast of Mozambique as a mid Cat 2 TC on Feb 24 1200z and its third landfall again on the coast of Mozambique as a high-end Cat 3 TC on Mar 11 1800z.

TC Freddy Wind Speeds.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Post Reply