Page 8 of 10
Re: General May Weather
Posted: Sat 20/05/2023 11:25
by Nev
cbm wrote: ↑Fri 19/05/2023 10:08
Having a low <980 HPa cross North Island would normally generate more talk on here and in media, I guess we have had so many storms. Looks as deep as Cyclone Dovi was when it crosses. Hopefully a heap of factors make it not as bad as Dovi was.
Yes, seems like one storm just blends into another lately...
According to GFS and EC, this subtropical low actually bombed 24 hPa and 25 hPa respectively in the 24 hours to 6pm on Thu May 18 NZST. Currently close to 970 hPa.
Akld Aero looks to have bottomed out at about 986 hPa around 6:30am this morning. Hawera currently the lowest at 980 hPa.
Also noticed 120 km/h gusts at Manukau Heads earlier at around 7:30am this morning, otherwise doesn't look too bad elsewhere so far...
Re: General May Weather
Posted: Sat 20/05/2023 12:20
by spwill
The NW wind starting to get gusty here now but less than 1mm of rain here so far, currently 18C
Some thunderstorm risk is modelled for here on Monday, 500mb temperatures will be around -20C with incoming moisture, something to watch for Monday.
Re: General May Weather
Posted: Sat 20/05/2023 12:30
by harveyt86
Wind picking up here now as well. Will be a windy old afternoon for western Waikato and Auckland.
Re: General May Weather
Posted: Sat 20/05/2023 17:18
by Nev
Auckland Harbour Bridge currently gusting to 104 km/h.
Looks like the low's centre is currently crossing Mt Taranaki going by the radar. Hawera got down to about 975 hPa not long ago.
Re: General May Weather
Posted: Sat 20/05/2023 18:10
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Nev wrote: ↑Sat 20/05/2023 17:18
Looks like the low's centre is currently crossing Mt Taranaki going by the radar. Hawera got down to about 975 hPa not long ago.
Interesting that it's been blowing it's guts out on the northern side of this low whereas down here we have had no wind to speak of yesterday and today.
Just clagg and light rain/drizzle.
Re: General May Weather
Posted: Sat 20/05/2023 20:02
by Nev
Lowest pressures are now on the North Island's eastern side, with 980 hPa at Napier Aero and 979 hPa at Cape Kidnappers.
Re: General May Weather
Posted: Sat 20/05/2023 20:27
by David
Now the wettest May in my records back to 2010. Up to 229mm so far.
Re: General May Weather
Posted: Sat 20/05/2023 22:36
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Dismal weather down here today with this low. Hardly any wind and a grey overcast day of clagg with the occasional drizzle or light rain.
11.4C for today and 8mm of light rain or drizzle. Barometer slowly rising from 989hPa, the lowest here for today.
Re: General May Weather
Posted: Sun 21/05/2023 10:35
by Nev
Re: General May Weather
Posted: Sun 21/05/2023 17:44
by Nev
Here's a few gust and rainfall stats from MS. I notice they didn't include peak gusts for Whangaparaoa (96 km/h) and Port Taharoa (98 km/h).
https://twitter.com/MetService/status/1 ... v594kuAAAA
Re: General May Weather
Posted: Sun 21/05/2023 18:20
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
I noticed a lot of purple in the rain radar last night moving east around the Palmy North area last night. I don't remember a WW for the area.
Another day of clagg here today
I thought it was supposed to clear ?
Re: General May Weather
Posted: Sun 21/05/2023 21:10
by David
TS outlook for tomorrow afternoon/evening looking interesting:
During the afternoon and evening, the low continues to move closer to the North Island and there is a low risk of thunderstorms for most of the North Island and parts of the Tasman District, as shown on the chart.
For southern Manawatu, Horowhenua, Kapiti and northern Wellington, there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon, which may bring localised heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 20 mm per hour and small hail.
For much of the northern and central part of the North Island, as well as Golden Bay, there is a moderate to high risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, persisting over Northland and Auckland at night. These thunderstorms may bring localised heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 25 mm per hour and small hail. Gusts of 90 km/h are also possible. However, for Northland and Auckland, gusts of 90 to 110 km/h are possible and there is a low risk that some of the thunderstorms become severe during the afternoon and early evening, producing localised downpours of 25 to 40 mm per hour and a slight chance of a small coastal tornado. In eastern Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne wind gusts could also reach 90 to 110 km/h, and there is a low risk of severe thunderstorms from evening, bringing localised downpours of 25 to 40 mm per hour.
No other areas of severe convection or thunderstorms are expected.
Re: General May Weather
Posted: Sun 21/05/2023 23:13
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Some rain overnight and yet another overcast day of clagg and not much wind despite the forecasts saying the cloud would clear and becoming fine and sunny but we have that hope for tomorrow.
Today's maximum only 10.7C with 3.7mm of rain overnight.
Re: General May Weather
Posted: Mon 22/05/2023 06:53
by harveyt86
Heavy rain and one dump of thunder at home just before 6am. See what this afternoon and evening brings.
Re: General May Weather
Posted: Mon 22/05/2023 07:18
by David
Yeah, I was abruptly woken at 6.05am by a big rumble of thunder. Been some quite heavy showers around already
Re: General May Weather
Posted: Mon 22/05/2023 09:00
by spwill
I could see lightning out to sea in the west early in the morning, Cb tops were lighting up. Perhaps Waiuku to Raglan got a storm from from the early morning line, around 3-4am.
Re: General May Weather
Posted: Mon 22/05/2023 09:17
by spwill
Auckland airport with 17.4mm last hr.
Re: General May Weather
Posted: Mon 22/05/2023 16:23
by harveyt86
Nothing doing since earlier today here and radar not looking promising for anything soon. Maybe we will get lucky later on?
Re: General May Weather
Posted: Mon 22/05/2023 17:56
by spwill
Not a bad day apart from the early showers, we have sheltering with the northerly.
Re: General May Weather
Posted: Mon 22/05/2023 23:44
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
The overcast and grey skies of which I call clagg, that we have had over the past 3 days, cleared away overnight and this morning and it was good to see the sun again with it becoming a fine sunny day with not much wind. 14.5C for today.
Re: General May Weather
Posted: Tue 23/05/2023 23:21
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Another fine blue dome day here with not much wind. Mild. Up to 16.5C from the light frost we had this morning.
Some light high cloud to the west late afternoon/evening.
Re: General May Weather
Posted: Wed 24/05/2023 07:31
by spwill
It has been a mild month for NZ.
I see Grey Lynn with an average maximum of 19.2C, ave min 13.2C so far for May with a mild finish to the month coming
Another zone of active thundery weather is currently modelled to cross the upper North Island early next week.
See how this looks in the models on Friday/Saturday
Re: General May Weather
Posted: Wed 24/05/2023 09:11
by David
spwill wrote: ↑Wed 24/05/2023 07:31
Another zone of active thundery weather is currently modelled to cross the upper North Island early next week.
See how this looks in the models on Friday/Saturday
Looks possible a total of 300mm will be reached for May
Re: General May Weather
Posted: Wed 24/05/2023 10:06
by spwill
Since Winter last year there has been a crazy amount of NE flow with stormy weather. The trend toward El Nino should change this pattern at some stage.
Re: General May Weather
Posted: Wed 24/05/2023 19:12
by Nev
spwill wrote: ↑Wed 24/05/2023 07:31
It has been a mild month for NZ.
I see Grey Lynn with an average maximum of 19.2C, ave min 13.2C so far for May with a mild finish to the month coming
2016 was Auckland's warmest May, setting records for both its highest May Tmax and Tmin.
However, that Tmin record might be under threat, and its Tmax probably won't be too far behind.
Not a lot of sunshine though.