NZ Weather Forum

Good consistency on the last few EC model runs for a very wet, cold and snowy system early next week for Canterbury…

Bradley wrote: ↑Mon 29/05/2023 07:38 Good consistency on the last few EC model runs for a very wet, cold and snowy system early next week for Canterbury…

A snow set up is modelled for the South Island next week.

Bradley wrote: ↑Mon 29/05/2023 07:38 Good consistency on the last few EC model runs for a very wet, cold and snowy system early next week for Canterbury…

Perfect timing for my Holiday leaving to Sunshine coast and North Queensland this friday

Still a long way out, but is fair to say for now with model consistency there's a significant period of unsettled severe weather coming.
As noted if the cold air sticks around for more than 2 days there will be quite a bit of snow especially for 400m+.
Sunday, Monday looks the coldest but with snow levels rising for the rest of the week and heavy rain from Tuesday to Thursday.
The significant weather starts from this Thursday with gale NW winds, then briefly switching SW on Friday with thunderstorms possible especially about the coast.
Not a good weekend for traveling that's for sure.

This system reminds me a lot of the June 19-21st 2013 system which had close to 100mm for Christchurch but just not cold enough for any proper accumulations at sea level but an epic dump above about 800m asl. Let's hope it turns more like the June 5th 2012 system (below) but that one had 850hpa temps of around -6C so I’m thinking this one just won’t have enough of the cold air ingredient for any decent accumulations above about 200-300m asl with 850hpa temps currently only forecasted to be around -4C...

GFS still being pretty consistent in it’s forecast of the depression sitting off the east coast of the South Island and around 60-100mm for most areas of Canterbury with 5-10cm to 200m asl and 15cm+ plus for widespread areas over 300m asl. EC has pulled back considerably the last few runs so it will be interesting to see what the next 48 hours brings in terms of model agreement…

Bradley wrote: ↑Wed 31/05/2023 11:43 GFS still being pretty consistent in it’s forecast of the depression sitting off the east coast of the South Island and around 60-100mm for most areas of Canterbury with 5-10cm to 200m asl and 15cm+ plus for widespread areas over 300m asl. EC has pulled back considerably the last few runs so it will be interesting to see what the next 48 hours brings in terms of model agreement…

I suspect the models are a tad unsure, as you say will come into agreement as we get closer to the weekend.
Something I noted was the cold upper air sitting off the coast quite far out at -36c on the 500mb. Yet the low is barely crossed by that stage.
Probably got a tad excited the other day seeing the models. Will still be quite a significant event no doubt and I wouldn't recommend anyone traveling through the passes etc.

Most models favoring a bit of a meandering cut off low at the moment so I imagine any consensus/finer deatils might be a bit hard to come by for a while? Either way looks like active weather for many parts to begin winter

Cold dry air sitting in the inland valleys and basins of Otago /Canterbury can help bring snow levels down when cold heavy precipitation moves in.

GFS has very cold 500mb temperatures over the NI next week, something to watch for thunder and hail.

spwill wrote: ↑Thu 01/06/2023 07:26 Cold dry air sitting in the inland valleys and basins of Otago /Canterbury can help bring snow levels down when cold heavy precipitation moves in over the top.

GFS has very cold 500mb temperatures over the NI next week, something to watch for thunder and hail.

Still pretty warm down here for this time of year, and looks like plenty of wind, so mixing will occur so this will not help. Soil temps still above 7 deg as well.

Soil temps have been high here also, over 10deg everyday for the last 10 days.
The rain coming next week will be welcome, only had 87mm since early March

Some nice and bright flashes of lightning out to the west at the moment.

Almost constant flashes visible from here too. You don’t often see them in Ashburton with the light pollution.

Keen Nor Wester here. Also see flashes from the west.

A warm day to start off winter 2023 with today's maximum being 21.5C.
High cloud overnight and this morning peeling away to the NE with it becoming a fine sunny day with not much wind.
Fine evening with lightning flashing away along the Alps.
NW freshening for a while this evening with the temperature being 16.6C at 10pm.

Saw a flash to the west as I was travelling along Edgeware Road about 10 minutes ago.

The 500mb temperatures are modelled to be around -30C over the upper North Island on Monday. Showers, some thundery with hail here on Monday easing later in the day as the flow goes S/SW or SE, see how this looks next couple of days.
The front moving onto the west of the North Island late Sunday might be thundery as well.

A nasty gust blowing here this morning, 61kmph at 2m above ground, converting that to the standard 10m I think Tony said you doubled that, is that right Tony??

Was running up the Port Hills last night, near constant flashing up the whole length of the Alps. It was a great show

Auckland will be in for some rain very shortly. Some red areas within the system too.

Heading for Tekapo this weekend, I suspect we may be on the edge of a snow dump. Watching with interest as to how the models are lining up

A bit of rain overnight but clearing away to become a blue dome day. Not much wind here but quite a gusty NW across the plains.
18.5c for today.

Wow GFS has totally flipped this system overnight, South Island clear by Monday morning on latest runs

Is it a rogue model run?, just seems too odd to have such a flip considering how consistent the models had been for the last week.

GFS pulled back on last night's run...similar to EC now.Could be a fizzer for Mt Hutt who are planning to open Friday

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