UK Weather - Summer 2023

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Simon Culling
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UK Weather - Summer 2023

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Continuing on from the Spring, we have a high pressure system dominating the UK weather. As per the attached synoptic map (courtesy of the Met Office) for 12 noon today (Fri 2nd June), the high is situated to our west and looks like staying in roughly the same position through the coming weekend and most of next week.

The east coast has been plagued by low cloud for the last week, but this will diminish as a problem over the weekend and the UK looks set for another 4 or 5 days of mostly sunny weather. Temperatures are a little above normal, but the easterly feed across the still cold North Sea is tempering them despite the long hours of sunshine. We may see a bit of a warm up later next week as a low approaches from the SW.

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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2023

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The weather pattern has remained locked with fine and dry weather over the UK - more cloud in the eastern half, but wall to wall sunshine for much of the west. Here in Tiverton it has been sunny and dry for a couple of weeks which is not a common occurrence. The persistence of easterly or north easterly winds has meant the warmth has been in the west and today the highest temperature of the year so far was recorded - a figure of 25.3°C at Whitechurch in SW Wales.

A temporary change in the weather is underway with a low now to the SW of the UK as the high pressure moves away to the NE to be over Scandinavia. The low will not get too close, but it will give showers (and a few thunderstorms) to England + Wales over the weekend. It will also draw in warmer air from the Continent on a SE breeze and we may well see 30°C approached in and around London.

The CET for June was 13.2°C (-0.9°C) up to the 7th and the EWR was 0mm up to the 6th. The average for June is 71mm.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2023

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Yesterday (Sat 10th June) was the hottest day of the year so far for many and it was a bit warmer than the forecasts. The top temperature was 32.2°C at Chertsey Abbey Mead, which is in the southern part of Greater London. Quite a few places in England reached 30°C and a site each in both Wales + Scotland also made this mark via rounded up figures.

The high temperatures set off an area of thunderstorms mid-afternoon just to the north of the M4 motorway (Berkshire/Oxfordshire/Berkshire area) and they moved NNW through the Midlands to the Liverpool + Manchester areas by early evening. They were quite active electrically and gave some localised flooding in the Midlands.

Here in Tiverton, our warmest day was Friday when we reached 26°C, and yesterday was mostly cloudy (AsAc sheet) with a little light rain and a late high of 22°C when the sun came out briefly - no thunder or anything interesting for us I am afraid.

It will be a repeat today, Sunday 11th June, with more storms this afternoon and overnight. After that, it looks to settle down again with high pressure and remain on the warm side.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2023

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Sunday (11th June) was an active weather day over most of the UK - but sadly not so for us in the SW. A lot of thunderstorms developed in the warm + humid atmosphere after 30°C was reached in much of central and eastern parts - with 32°C in London. A particularly interesting cluster of storms developed over London around 4pm and moved NW into the Midlands and expanded to a long line of storms followed by a cold pool of rain - a sort of MCS system which has been described as a "leading line, trailing-stratiform MCS" by meteorologists. The attached radar shot is for near 8pm and the line is now well over 100km in length and still giving a lot of thunder + lightning and torrential rain. Hailstones to 3cm diameter were also reported from Wallingford (Oxon) and Market Harborough (Leics).

Radar image is from this tweet:

https://twitter.com/DarkSnipers117/stat ... 8495575041
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2023

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The very warm and sunny weather has resumed after further widespread showers and thunderstorms last Monday, although much of southern and eastern England did not get much rain. The rest of this last week has been sunny and hot with just a few showers forming around the mountains of Wales + western + northern Scotland - and local convergence zones in these areas. The temperature reached 31°C in Manchester on Monday, but has peaked at 29°C or 30°C for the rest of the days this week. A weather anomaly known in UK weather circles as "the 13th of June anomaly" finally met it end this year. For the series of date maximums, somewhere in the UK has reached at least 30.0°C on all days between 27th May and 17th September except the 13th of June and these records go back into the latter part of the nineteenth century. Finally this year, the 30°C figure was exceeded at 5 sites.

Today, Friday 16th June, a SE-NW line of thunderstorms developed over Glasgow, Scotland in the late afternoon and a small funnel cloud was seen from many of the southern + eastern suburbs of the city. This attached tweet gives an idea of the small FC - we do not get too many reports from north of the border.

https://twitter.com/DJ_Hendo_/status/16 ... 2379985922
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2023

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

I see there has been a few thunderstorms over the UK over the last couple of days with reports of flooding around the Manchester area.
JohnGaul
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Simon Culling
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2023

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Yes John, but not for all of us. Showery rain and thunderstorms have been widespread over the weekend, but rainfall totals have been very variable as is often the case under such weather patterns. Some parts of central England and southern Scotland have seen 50mm of rain, but here in Tiverton we have had nothing more than a few light showers + not enough to worry the rain gauge. We did have a few rumble of thunder on Sunday afternoon, but only a couple of dribbles of rain - yet only 15 miles to my SW, up to 35mm fell in the town of Crediton in around one hour with some resulting flooding.

The cricket at Edgbaston (Birmingham) was interrupted by the rain + thunderstorms yesterday afternoon and this may have come to England's rescue as the change in conditions was certainly helping the Aussie pace attack. Fine and dry today and the match is finely poised!!

Looking forward, it looks to remain showery for a day or two, but then it may settle down again with more warmth pushing up from the south. There does not appear to be much of a push from the more normal 'return of the westerlies' that we often see at the end of June.

The CET for June was 16.5°C (+2.4°C) up to the 18th and the EWR was 10mm up to the 17th, which is just 14% of the monthly average.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2023

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Most of last week was still warm and generally dry, but a cold front finally crossed the UK yesterday (Sunday 25th) to bring cooler and fresher weather with a few showers. Yesterday saw the temperature reach 32.2°C at RAF Coningsby in Lincolnshire and this equalled the yearly high to date set earlier in the month. Showers + thunderstorms were triggered by this heat (and the cold front) in northern parts of England and again in Ireland - the Emerald Isle has had a very thundery June.

The coming week will be cooler, but still mostly dry until later with some rain hopefully by Thurs/Fri. Reservoir levels continue to fall.

There has been quite a lot of chatter here in the UK about a 'marine heatwave' with current SST anomalies around +3-4°C with the temperature roughly around where it should be at the peak in September. Lots of possible reasons, but it will be much more concerning if this level of anomaly still exists as we go into Autumn. Map below is courtesy of NOAA PSL.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-65988971
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2023

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The cooler weather duly arrived during the past week with some rain for some, but the predominantly dry regime continues. The rain has been showery in nature and not for everyone. The weekend and coming week will continue the cooler theme, but again rainfall does not look plentiful for England + Wales. For me, the cooler weather is fine as it means I can cool the house down - during June it averaged around 23-24°C (and up to 27°C at times), but now we are down to around 21°C and this is much more comfortable.

The CET for June was 17.1°C (+3.0°C) up to the 29th and the EWR was only 46mm also up to the 29th, which is 65% of the monthly average. It looks possible that June could be the warmest for the UK as a whole (record back to 1884), but for the CET, which only covers a small portion of England (i.e. the Midlands), it will not beat the record of 18.2°C set in 1846.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2023

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The cooler regime continued until yesterday (Fri 7th July) with further generally light rain/showers for most places - although it has been wetter in N Ireland + NW Scotland. Much warmer air arrived from the south yesterday - a typical plume event - with the temperature up to 30°C in and around London. Here in Tiverton it was a blue dome day with a high of 25°C.

This will be a short warm spell as the thundery breakdown is underway this morning - Saturday 8th July. The far east may well see 30°C again, but for most it will be a case of avoiding the showers + thunderstorms - the cricket at Headingley will most likely be affected at some stage today. The cold front should cross the country later today and overnight and we will then be back to the cooler Atlantic air and this will persist for much of next week with some showery rain.

The CET for July was 14.9°C (-1.1°C) up to the 6th and the EWR was 13mm also up to the 6th which is 18% of the monthly average of 72mm. The average for July is currently 2°C lower than the average for all of June - it would normally be 2°C warmer.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2023

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Good win for England in the Third Test - against our common foe. :D :D Onto Old Trafford next Wednesday.

The generally cool and unsettled weather has returned to the UK with some rain and/or showers for all. However, the airmass over the UK seem to be warmer than one might normally expect for mid summer. For most of this week we have been in what would be termed returning polar maritime air, yet the temperature has reached 24/25°C every day in more eastern parts - and that measure used to be the benchmark for a 'decent summers day'.

The peak of the unsettled weather is arriving today (Fri 14th July) as a still deepening depression is approaching the UK to give us a wet and windy couple of days as well as a cool feel. At 06Z this morning the low was at 995mb and to the SW of Eire and it is expected to move slowly north to be over N Ireland at 985mb by late this evening. It will then slowly drift NE across Scotland and into the North Sea by early on Sunday to leave the UK in a cool northerly. The Met Office have issued warnings for strong winds with gusts up to 55mph over the southern half of the UK.

First indications are that it will remain unsettled next week, but not as lively as this weekend.

The CET for July was 16.4°C (+0.4°C) up to the 12th and the EWR was 35mm also up to the 12th, which is 48% of the monthly average.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2023

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The weekend was breezy and showery with some minor tree damage as a result of wind gusts up to about 50mph or so across much of the south of the UK. These are not high values in the scheme of things, but they have a greater impact in Summer as they are not expected and the trees are in full leaf. There were a lot of heavy showers + thunderstorms on both Saturday + Sunday, but again, not unusual for summer when the jet stream moves a little further south than normal - it is making up for the warm + sunny weather in June. Interestingly, if the current 10-day forecast is correct, July will end up being a little cooler than June - and this has not happened for about 50 years here in the UK.

There is a lot of media attention on the current very hot weather in and around the Mediterranean and why it is not affecting the UK. Some very high temperatures have been recorded and they will continue for much of the coming week - there is an outside chance that the current European record maximum temperature of 48.0°C (recorded at Athens on 10th July 1977) will be challenged. The Med, like the UK, also has unseasonably high SST's (by a few degrees) at the moment - this map is courtesy of the Met Office and is for today.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2023

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The run of cool and showery days has continued over the last few days with daytime temperatures only reaching 19-21°C in most places - and cooler than this in Scotland + N Ireland. The jet stream has got stuck over the UK and this is a long way further south than normal. The 'heat dome' over the Mediterranean seems a very long way away and is not showing any signs of heading north at the moment.

We have another major low pressure system (for the time of the year) arriving in time for the weekend and this will bring more rain/showers and prolong the cooler regime well into next week. Some tentative signs of the weather calming down and warming up a bit in early August.

A very photogenic waterspout was observed off Dungeness (on the south coast of the county of Kent) yesterday afternoon (Thurs 20th July) and was photographed and/or videoed by a few people. The attached tweet shows its 'stovepipe' shape very well.

A series of waterspouts were also seen on the north coast of Kent close to Herne Bay around 8am/9am on the same day.

https://twitter.com/Kent_999s/status/16 ... 8842846214
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2023

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The tentative signs of high pressure re-establishing itself near to the UK into early August has all but disappeared from the models and we look like seeing a continuation of the cool and unsettled weather. It is proving difficult convincing the doubters of climate change that it is real with all this crap summer weather. Their memories are short bearing in mind we recently had the warmest June on record! The advantage of all this rain is that everything is lovely and green and there is no water shortage at the moment.

The CET for July was 16.1°C (+0.1°C) up to the 24th and the EWR was 100m up to the 25th which is 139% of the monthly average. Despite the current weather being described as 'cool', it is still the same as the average for the period 1961-1990 which HADOBS still uses for the CET. In other words, what was average 50 years ago is now considered cool.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2023

Unread post by Simon Culling »

I know that I am beginning to sound like a broken record, but the cool and unsettled weather continues unabated in the UK and looks set to for at least the next week or so. The jet stream is a long way south and is over the UK at the moment, and this is bringing a succession of low pressures across the country. Today (Monday 31st July) has been typical of recent times here in Tiverton - mostly cloudy with showery outbreaks of rain + drizzle and a maximum of 17°C - at this time, the warmest part of the year, it should be nearer to 22°C. The Metmen are now suggesting a rather deep low (for the time of year) next weekend that will cross southern England bringing a lot of rain as well as gales. Sounds very autumnal. With the low this far south, there will be some very cool air associated with it, especially at it moves away to the east.

The final figures are not available yet, but it appears that July will end up being cooler than June this year which is not a regular occurrence. Looking at the CET record, this is the first time it has happened since 1970 - so 53 years ago. Prior to that, it seems to have been much more commonplace and occurred another 10 times in the twentieth century prior to 1970.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2023

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The disturbed weather has continued here in the UK and a rather deep depression is set to run across the southern part of England later today (Saturday 5th August) bringing strong winds and rain. The Met Office have taken the unusual step of naming this low pressure as Storm Antoni and they have issued an Amber Weather Warning for SW England + Wales to include where I live. With gusts up to around 70mph at lunchtime, it is going to be an interesting day.

As the depression moves away, we will have a very cool NW-N flow over the country for a couple of days, but then it looks to warm up considerably with 30°C+ possible by the end of the coming week in the SE of England. It looks quite plumy on the forecast charts, so we might see a few thunderstorms by next weekend.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2023

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Whilst it is getting a little warmer and drier over the next couple of days, the expected improvement in the weather has been downgraded and we will be back in the cooler and more showery weather by the weekend. Today in Tiverton is mostly cloudy and more humid than recent days with the temperature a rather warm 21°C in the early afternoon. It does feel rather 'muggy', but at least it is dry.

The CET for August was 15.4°C (-0.3°C) up to the 7th and the EWR was 34mm up to the 6th, which is 41% of the monthly average of 82mm.

The final CET for July was 16.1°C (+0.2°C) and the final EWR was 121mm which is 168% of the monthly average. For comparison, the wettest July in the EWR series (which begins in 1766) was in 1828 when 183mm was recorded. July ended up being nearly a degree colder than June on the CET series, and as mentioned in a post above, this has not happened since 1970. We would normally expect July to be roughly two degrees warmer than June. Looking at the UK as a whole, July 2023 was much cooler, wetter and duller than average - and would be judged as a very poor summer month by most. This matches the current economic and political mood at the moment. :lol: :lol: Met Office summary for the month attached.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/p ... rn-ireland
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2023

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Whilst it has been a little warmer and less unsettled in the last few days, summer weather has not really returned to the UK. The highest temperature nationwide in recent days has only been 27°C in London on Wednesday (16th Aug) which is nothing special by recent standards - definitely not going to be a repeat of anything near the 40°C experienced last year. Here in Tiverton, the weather has been mixed but we have had a couple of nice sunny days with highs of 23/24°C in the last week. However, today (Fri 18th Aug) we are back to low cloud and a find drizzle and it feels very muggy at 19°C.

The heat remains over Iberia where 47°C has been reported in the last week and the southerly shifted jet stream has kept the UK under the influence of the Atlantic rather than the Continent and the heat has (thankfully) been kept at bay. This morning the second named storm has been announced with the name 'Storm Betty' which has come about in a hurry as it is going to hit tonight - I think the original guidance of the UK Met Model was not trusted enough as it was out on its own and now the low is developing quickly, the other models have come on board. The low looks like it will be a bit further north than originally thought and this will bring strong winds to Eire, SW England + Wales - we could see gusts in excess of 70mph. Here in Tiverton the heavy rain is likely to be more of a problem - could well be over an inch tonight.

The CET for August was 16.6°C (+0.8°C) up to the 17th and the EWR was 51mm up to the 16th, which is 62% of the monthly average.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2023

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Storm Betty passed without too much fuss or damage - I am not sure why there were weather warnings for this low pressure system. Here in Tiverton it was a little breezy and we had only 10mm of rain. That said, it was very windy for the time of the year in the south of Eire and extending NE up through the Irish Sea to N Wales, with gusts to about 70mph at coastal sites.

Since then, it has been generally drier and warmer, with 28°C reached in the SE of England over the last couple of days. However, back to the showers and brief thunderstorms today (Friday 25th August) with at least three funnel clouds spotted in Scotland. Picture on this tweet was taken in Glenrothes, which is in eastern Scotland and not too far from the city of Dundee.

https://twitter.com/MicheleCWarren/stat ... 3657311446

Looking ahead, we are back on the north side of the jet stream now and the European warmth looks further away than ever. The next week looks to be cool and showery with winds from the NW.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2023

Unread post by Orion »

Rare waterspout swirls off Isle of Wight coast [0:45]
A rare waterspout was filmed swirling off the coast of the Isle of Wight on Saturday, 26 August.

The Meteorological Office (Met Office) national weather service said it was spotted at around 10:20am.

This footage, taken by Daniel Skudder, shows the waterspout, which is characterised by a funnel-shaped cloud and occurs over a body of water but does not reach land.

According to witnesses, the waterspout fizzled out before it reached land so it was not classed as a tornado.
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Re: UK Weather - Summer 2023

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Orion, thanks for posting the IOW waterspout video - but I would like to correct some of the inaccuracies in the newspaper report concerning waterspouts in the UK. Firstly they are not rare - TORRO has records of numerous waterspouts and the annual average for the UK is around 10-15, although there has been a marginal decline in recent years. Furthermore, on Saturday (26th August), two other waterspouts were witnessed and photographed in the UK - one on the west coast of Wales and the other on its south coast (Bristol Channel).

In fact, convectively speaking, its has been a busy few days in the UK with numerous showers and thunderstorms daily from Friday through to Sunday and TORRO has so far collected reports of at least 17 other funnel clouds one of which might just have reached the ground. Only one day with thunder here in Tiverton, but we did have a few cracking claps of thunder on Friday - loudest I have heard this year.

The generally unsettled and rather cool weather looks to continue for this week, but maybe high pressure building across the UK from the SW by the weekend - a lot will depend on where Hurricanes Franklin + Idalia go as they move across the Atlantic.

The CET for August was 16.7°C (+0.9°C) up to the 28th and the EWR was 77mm up to the 27th, which is 94% of the monthly average. If the CET stays where it is, June will end up being warmer than both July + August on the CET figures.
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