General July Weather

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Mon 26/06/2023 09:13

Looks like a polar surge to start July.

I'm trying to fix a read on the weekend 1/2 July here in ChCh as I'm taking part in a multiday ultramarathon at Spencer Park. looks like we are at the mercy of which direction the "critical SW flow" takes us. What are the thoughts of the hive mind here folks?

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Tue 27/06/2023 11:51

It is looking like a more SW flow, so activity will be very coastal.
There will be brief shots of moisture as the fronts and troughs swipe up the east coast. The coldest upper air is on Sunday but the 850mb is colder by Tuesday so I'm not sure whether they will align more as we get closer.
Any snow down to about 100-200m, and some winter instability could lead to a thunderstorm with hail.

Just from what I can see at the moment with the consistency of the models anyway.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Wed 28/06/2023 13:16

Latest GFS run want to bring a spell of rain and then snow into ChCh late Saturday. Hoping this is a rogue run....

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Wed 28/06/2023 13:34

Razor wrote: ↑Mon 26/06/2023 09:13 Looks like a polar surge to start July.

I'm trying to fix a read on the weekend 1/2 July here in ChCh as I'm taking part in a multiday ultramarathon at Spencer Park. looks like we are at the mercy of which direction the "critical SW flow" takes us. What are the thoughts of the hive mind here folks?

Most likely outcome is fine and dry but cold. Don't ignore the (less than likely) risk of a few light showers, but they look more likely on Monday at this stage.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Thu 29/06/2023 10:24

TonyT wrote: ↑Wed 28/06/2023 13:34
Razor wrote: ↑Mon 26/06/2023 09:13 Looks like a polar surge to start July.

I'm trying to fix a read on the weekend 1/2 July here in ChCh as I'm taking part in a multiday ultramarathon at Spencer Park. looks like we are at the mercy of which direction the "critical SW flow" takes us. What are the thoughts of the hive mind here folks?
Most likely outcome is fine and dry but cold. Don't ignore the (less than likely) risk of a few light showers, but they look more likely on Monday at this stage.

220 of us start at 0730 Saturday morning. Race format is Last Person Standing a 6.7km loop, which re-starts every hour until no one is left. Last year the winner got round 38 loops, so its possible some will still be going come Monday morning. Same format of race was just held over in Oz where ChCh legend Sam Harvey went 101 loops to be the second last person left, 'assisting a local Aussie to the 102nd and World Record loop. I'll let you guys do the maths on that...

I'll be happy with 10

harveyt86 · Unread post by **harveyt86** » Fri 30/06/2023 10:16

Looking like decent snow for southern lakes and ruapehu ski fields. Ruapehu will be particularly happy considering recent events. The next few days should set them up nicely for the season.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 30/06/2023 12:05

Moisture feed ahead of a frontal activity early Sunday is something to watch for the upper North Island, looks thundery.

David · Unread post by **David** » Sat 01/07/2023 09:50

Was woken by a gusty shower here around 3.15am with small hail

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sat 01/07/2023 10:33

Sunny start to the month in Chch, after overnight showers. (leaving a dusting of snow on Mt Herbert)

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sat 01/07/2023 16:18

Looks like there will be a brushing of a front tonight, generally south of Christchurch and on the coastal fringes. This might see an isolated cell or two with thunder and hail.
Otherwise a burst of strong winds mainly.
Tomorrow late afternoon the SW could be abit stronger up around gale force along the coastlines and Banks Peninsula.
Monday definitely provides the best chance in activity with heavy showers and hail, however the upper air starts to warm up again by this stage.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 01/07/2023 17:38

Storm Struck wrote: ↑Sat 01/07/2023 16:18 Looks like there will be a brushing of a front tonight, generally south of Christchurch and on the coastal fringes. This might see an isolated cell or two with thunder and hail.

I wouldn't be surprised judging from last night's thunderstorm and lightning show with a very low and still dropping barometer reading.
978hPa at the moment and still falling.

Classicford · Unread post by **Classicford** » Sat 01/07/2023 18:43

Just had a graupel shower pass through Waimate.
Ground covered.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Sat 01/07/2023 19:29

Latest EC has a 50/50 chance of snow in Christchurch with 25 out of 50 members indicating a cm or so…

Cantab03 · Unread post by **Cantab03** » Sat 01/07/2023 20:32

Radar has exploded with development in CHCH, gales and hail here on Hoon Hay

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sat 01/07/2023 20:41

A few hail stones here too and some hefty gusts I'd say around 70kmh.
Just awaiting a clap of thunder with that radar

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 01/07/2023 23:36

Looked good up towards Christchurch this evening but then the rain radar went out.
I think we stole your thunder last night Sorry folks:

Anyway after the rain etc., last night,the sky cleared to become frosty this morning with some black ice around the place.
Fine day resulted with some scattered cloud moving from the west to SW direction.
Not much wind but a SW developed here for a while from 7:30pm.
Today's maximum was 10.3C.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Sun 02/07/2023 00:38

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Sat 01/07/2023 23:36 Looked good up towards Christchurch this evening but then the rain radar went out.
I think we stole your thunder last night Sorry folks:
Anyway after the rain etc., last night,the sky cleared to become frosty this morning with some black ice around the place.
Fine day resulted with some scattered cloud moving from the west to SW direction.
Not much wind but a SW developed here for a while from 7:30pm.
Today's maximum was 10.3C.

Isolated thunderstorm off the coast of BP early this morning John.
Warm enough sea surface temperatures with cold trough sparking the small cell

Was frosty and clear in rolleston at the time aswel.

Hopefully you can.get used to the lightning app on your phone come our spring and summer storm season

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sun 02/07/2023 09:05

Some thunderstorm activity for North Auckland and Northland earlier in the morning, the top of Northland was most in the firing line again.

Over the SI the main upper toughing is passing east of the Southern Lakes so not much snow for Central Otago.

RODALCO · Unread post by **RODALCO** » Sun 02/07/2023 14:58

Just gone absolutely mad in the last 5 to 10 minutes in Titirangi, very strong wind gusts and heavy horizontal rain.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sun 02/07/2023 15:25

The day not too bad here until that front arrived.

Dunedin webcams show some decent snow showers there this afternoon. Mosgiel webcam here
https://public.aopa.nz/mosgiel.jpg

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sun 02/07/2023 18:09

The showers looked to be edging closer into the coastline, as I came back from Banks Peninsula. Quite hard to tell as the radar has been down all day.
Tomorrow there should be some good heavy showers and hail throughout the day for the plains and coast. Snow level rises from 200m to 400m by the evening before retreating to the Peninsula.

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Sun 02/07/2023 20:06

Storm Struck wrote:The showers looked to be edging closer into the coastline, as I came back from Banks Peninsula. Quite hard to tell as the radar has been down all day.
Tomorrow there should be some good heavy showers and hail throughout the day for the plains and coast. Snow level rises from 200m to 400m by the evening before retreating to the Peninsula.

Looks way too coastal to affect the plains

Sent from my SM-A145F using Tapatalk

David · Unread post by **David** » Sun 02/07/2023 21:11

Good roll of thunder just now, wasn't expecting that!

Fujita Phil · Unread post by **Fujita Phil** » Sun 02/07/2023 21:52

Best afternoon Dunedin snow we have had in many a year here (200m). Quite a few light flurries throughout the day and around 2pm we had a sustained fall with the largest flurries I have seen for a while. Almost continuous snow showers for a couple of hours. Didn’t stop all the idiots in 2WD cars coming up the hill and getting stuck

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 02/07/2023 22:48

After a frost this morning, a mainly fine and sunny day eventuated but with a raw SW to south wind keeping the temperature in the high single digits.
9.9C the maximum with the winds easing late afternoon.
Quite a cold evening with the temperature dropping down to zero by 7pm.
Frosty this evening with it being minus 1.3C at 10pm.

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