NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Fri 13/10/2023 22:15
Hope so there Mike, from next week when we come home from up here in Auckland.
Been rather cool up here, even had to have the heat pump on here in Glenfield last night.
That’s really surprising to hear from a South Islander Nights have been feeling fairly mild lately
A thunderstorm risk for areas south of Timaru tomorrow
apart from the western high country activity.
It has been a cool week in Auckland by day this week, 850mb temps near 0C which would be a little unusual even in Winter for 4 consecutive days that low.
I think October will finish up cooler than normal for the North Island.
spwill wrote: ↑Sat 14/10/2023 08:46
A thunderstorm risk for areas south of Timaru tomorrow
apart from the western high country activity.
I agree their spwill. I was looking tonight and thought I'd put a post up saying the cold upper trough has shifted abit further north now and seems to put a thunder/ hail risk around the timaru/ south Canterbury area this evening.
Possibly even coastal mid Canterbury later in the evening with a SW flick.
Another fine day here in West Glenfield after a bit of rain overnight with some light westerly winds.
A bit cool this evening with the heat pump on.
Fly back to Wellington on Tuesday, hope the winds are not too strong for a safe landing.
The chance of a heavy shower here tomorrow, an isolated thunderstorm risk from Auckland to the Central North Island tomorrow afternoon, dew point temperatures up to 14-15C tomorrow.
Out in Devonport today. Quite hazy with a shower moving across, not quite thunderstomic looking though.
Back to Belmont Wellington tomorrow, then back home later in the week.
More isolated thunderstorm risk tomorrow Wednesday for the North Island but south of Auckland, flow will be NE here tomorrow.
The thunderstorm risk today/tomorrow looks on the low side.
Yes some helpful rainfall this morning after several days of warm dry winds.
We had a few trees down at work from Saturday, one big pine tree had broke off about 10 metres up the trunk.
Wind gusts although not as bad as north Canterbury were up around 100 to 105kmh at Christchurch Airport, not too far from here.
Rainband has cleared and some sunshine squinting through.
Also some TCU going up and heavy showers in some parts of the region.
Perhaps a heavy shower or two with small hail, no thunder risk though.
A long way off and surely not very likely, but GFS is suggesting the remains of a tropical cyclone may impact the North Island towards the end of the month. I expect this scenario will disappear in the next few model runs but it made me wonder, has NZ ever seen a cyclone this early?
Screenshot_20231019_074057_Firefox.jpg
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
harleyb wrote: ↑Thu 19/10/2023 07:47
A long way off and surely not very likely, but GFS is suggesting the remains of a tropical cyclone may impact the North Island towards the end of the month. I expect this scenario will disappear in the next few model runs but it made me wonder, has NZ ever seen a cyclone this early?Screenshot_20231019_074057_Firefox.jpg
Just as interesting is to ask has the Southwest Pacific seen a cyclone this early in the season?
spwill wrote: ↑Thu 19/10/2023 08:10
The current GFS outlook for the rest of the month is not looking like typical El Nino.
Looks like little or no rain for Auckland with the northern low next few days, we will be sheltered here with flow turning southerly.
We've reached that inflexion point when the westerlies have tumbled over and on top of themselves and the atmosphere needs to reset for a few weeks before they can become established again. We often see this in strongly westerly focussed seasons. The westerlies run and run and run and kind of overwhelm themselves, and the pattern temporarily breaks down. The MJO is going to do a phase 6/7/8/1 transition between late October and mid November, which are the phases which favour low pressure to the north and more easterly quarter airflow (or reduced westerly). These phases were virtually continuous last summer.
TonyT wrote: ↑Thu 19/10/2023 07:50
Just as interesting is to ask has the Southwest Pacific seen a cyclone this early in the season?
Yes. TC Liua was named by Fiji Met on September 27 in 2018 and currently holds the record as the earliest named TC in the South Pacific basin since reliable records began from 1970. It meandered around the Solomon Islands for a couple of days as a Cat 1.
TC Lusi was the previous record holder before that, being named by Fiji Met on October 09 in 1997. Lusi reached Cat 2 as it tacked SE between Vanuatu and Fiji.
P.S. There was also TC Raquel named by the BoM on July 01 in 2015 near the Solomon Islands. Raquel is the only TC on record to have formed in the South Pacific in July and could arguably be both the earliest and the latest TC to have formed in the South Pacific and Australian regions.
Back home after being up in Auckland for the last week after attending a funeral in Upper hutt.
33.3mm in the gauge since we were away so there must of been a few wet days whilst we were away.
Here's a photo i took from Devonport of some unstable looking skies towards the CBD last Monday.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's been nice to have abit of a break from the unsettled severe weather, and have time to clean up the tree damage.
Abit more of a stationary system this weekend will deliver much needed rain to the region, overnight into tomorrow morning.
Next week we see the westerlies return, especially Thursday which continues to show severe gales for the high country.
A pulse of very cold air passes to the south of Aotearoa on Friday, but still drags some very cold upper air over most of the South Island.
At this stage an upper trough moves over Canterbury late afternoon into the evening with a good risk of thunderstorms and hail.
I am only mentioning this because it has been in the models for 3 days now and is worth keeping an eye on.
I suspect we will start seeing more thunder chances through November into December, based off previous strong El Nino years.
Nights have been feeling fairly mild lately
