Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24

[Nev]

Thought it may pay to start a thread for this season, particularly given the potential of an early system developing east of the Solomon Islands.

NIWA are predicting a normal to above normal season with 9 to 14 named TC's compared to an average of about 10. This includes 4-8 severe TC's which may reach Cat 3 or higher. El Nino usually favours a higher risk around and to the east of the International Date Line and a slightly lower risk to NZ, with at least one ex-TC passing within 550 km of the country.

https://niwa.co.nz/climate/southwest-pa ... ober-2023.

[Nev]

A developing tropical low east of the Solomon Islands has the potential of forming into a TC as it tracks towards Fiji in the next few days. Organisation looks to have improved significantly overnight, with good rotation and increased deep convection.

[Nev]

Fiji Met issued its first TD Advisory this morning for the developing system east of the Solomons, with a high risk of it becoming a TC by Tuesday and possibly a Cat 2 by Wednesday as it approaches Fiji...

[Nev]

JTWC has issued a TC Formation Alert earlier this morning, with a high chance of this low currently about 1300 km NW of Fiji becoming a TC within the next 24 hours...

[Nev]

JTWC have issued their first TC advisories this afternoon (based on 1-minute max winds). Fiji Met will probably name it this evening.

[Nev]

Tropical Cyclone Mal was named by Fiji Met this evening.

[Nev]

Fiji Met have just upgraded TC Mal to Cat 2. Central pressure currently 988 hPa and max winds of 50 knots.

While Fiji Met expect Mal to begin affecting Fiji's main island of Viti Levu from later this afternoon, most of the destructive winds will be later tonight, with Mal's centre expected to pass about 170km west of Nadi around 3am tomorrow morning.

[Nev]

Fiji Met now expecting Mal to become a Severe Cat 3 TC this evening, which is more in line with JTWC's recent forecasts. Central pressure currently 975 hPa, with max winds of 55 knots. Mal was also sporting a visible eye earlier, before it became cloud obscured.

[Nev]

TC Mel, currently Cat 2 with max winds of 60 knots, is likely to intensify into a Cat 3 TC tonight as it passes within 200 km of Fiji's main island of Viti Levu after midnight. Winds at Nadi are expected to reach 95 km/h with gusts up to 130 km/h.

[Nev]

Severe TC Mal was upgraded to Cat 3 just after midnight LT by Fiji Met, with max Winds of 65 knots, gusts to 90 knots and central pressure down to 970 hPa. Mal's centre was located 145 km WSW of Nadi at 3am LT this morning. However, increasing wind shear and dry air entrainment should start taking their toll on Mal today...

[Nev]

Severe TC Mal has continued to intensify a little more this morning, with max winds now at 70 knots and central pressure down to 965 hPa.
Reports of power outages and some flooding around Nadi.

[Nev]

Fiji Met dropped TC Mal down to Cat 2 earlier this afternoon with 60 knot max winds. JTWC on the other hand had Mal strengthening a little more today and maintaining an intense core, despite having begun to unravel with its fragmented convection slightly sheared to the east.

[Nev]

Former TC Mal was declared an Ex-TC by MetService this afternoon as it crossed into their Area of Responsibility. Earlier this morning Fiji Met downgraded Mal to Cat 1. No doubt JTWC will be issuing their final warning this afternoon.

[Nev]

There's a good chance we could see this season's third TC develop near the Solomons early next week.
GFS have been progging this for a while now, with other models gradually coming on board...

BoM - Tropical Cyclone Forecast
[Issued: Dec 01 0000z]

Tropical Low 02U

A High chance of a tropical cyclone developing near the Solomon Islands or far northeast of the Coral Sea next week.

* This weekend a tropical low, 02U, is likely to form within Fiji's area of responsibility.
* During Monday or Tuesday the system is likely to move into the Australian area of responsibility in the Solomon Sea, before turning towards the south or southwest.
* During next Wednesday or Thursday 02U could move into the far northeast Coral Sea.
* 02U has a Moderate chance of developing into a tropical cyclone from late Monday, and a High chance from late Wednesday.
* 02U is forecast to remain a long way from the Queensland coast and no direct impacts are expected.

[Nev]

The BoM now have a high chance of the tropical low currently tracking west over the Solomon Islands of becoming a TC from tomorrow night. Most main models expect it to intensify to Cat 3 or 4 before ultimately either crossing the QLD coast early to mid next week or skirting further down the QLD/NSW coast.

[Nev]

JTWC has issued a TC Formation Alert earlier this morning, also with a high chance of TC development in the next 12 to 24 hours.

[Nev]

The BoM are expecting to name our Solomon Islands low later today, then rapidly intensifying to a severe Cat 3 later on Wednesday and Cat 4 later on Thursday. Longer term, landfall somewhere on the Qld coast early next is looking more and more likely...

[Nev]

JTWC have issued their first TC Warning this afternoon.

[Nev]

TC Jasper has been named by the BoM this evening.

[darcyplumb]

TC Jasper has been named by the BoM this evening.

Looking more and more likely that it will be a severe impact for Queensland - their first for a few years now. I believe Josh Morgerman from I Cyclone will be travelling down under to chase.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I believe Josh Morgerman from I Cyclone will be travelling down under to chase.

Is he the "Hurricane Man" ?

[darcyplumb]

I believe Josh Morgerman from I Cyclone will be travelling down under to chase.

Is he the "Hurricane Man" ?

He sure is

[Nev]

Looking more and more likely that it will be a severe impact for Queensland - their first for a few years now.

Yes, although at this stage Jasper could end up making landfall just about anywhere along the Qld coast (if at all), but hopefully won't be any more than Cat 2 by then. TC Trevor in March 2019 was the last severe TC to hit the Qld coast up in Cape York as a Cat 3. Before that severe TC Debbie made landfall near Airlie Beach in March 2017 as a high end Cat 3 and was one of the most costliest and deadliest to have hit Qld.

Latest JTWC track map:

[Nev]

TC Jasper upgraded to Cat 2 by the BoM this afternoon, with a central pressure of 987 hPa and sporting a visible ragged eye. Jasper is expected to become a severe Cat 3 TC overnight tonight and peak at Cat 4 by Friday. At this stage the highest risk of an impact with the Qld coast early next week is for the region north of Mackay.

[Nev]

Severe TC Jasper has rapidly intensified to Cat 3 this evening. Central pressure at 977 hPa.
BoM expect Jasper will strengthen to a high-end Cat 4 later on Thursday and possibly even Cat 5 on Thursday night.