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Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24
Posted: Sat 21/10/2023 09:03
by Nev
Thought it may pay to start a thread for this season, particularly given the potential of an early system developing east of the Solomon Islands.
NIWA are predicting a normal to above normal season with 9 to 14 named TC's compared to an average of about 10. This includes 4-8 severe TC's which may reach Cat 3 or higher. El Nino usually favours a higher risk around and to the east of the International Date Line and a slightly lower risk to NZ, with at least one ex-TC passing within 550 km of the country.
https://niwa.co.nz/climate/southwest-pa ... ober-2023.
Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24
Posted: Sat 11/11/2023 10:35
by Nev
A developing tropical low east of the Solomon Islands has the potential of forming into a TC as it tracks towards Fiji in the next few days. Organisation looks to have improved significantly overnight, with good rotation and increased deep convection.
Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24
Posted: Sun 12/11/2023 11:37
by Nev
Fiji Met issued its first TD Advisory this morning for the developing system east of the Solomons, with a high risk of it becoming a TC by Tuesday and possibly a Cat 2 by Wednesday as it approaches Fiji...
Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24
Posted: Mon 13/11/2023 06:42
by Nev
JTWC has issued a TC Formation Alert earlier this morning, with a high chance of this low currently about 1300 km NW of Fiji becoming a TC within the next 24 hours...
Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24
Posted: Mon 13/11/2023 16:16
by Nev
JTWC have issued their first TC advisories this afternoon (based on 1-minute max winds). Fiji Met will probably name it this evening.
Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24
Posted: Mon 13/11/2023 21:15
by Nev
Tropical Cyclone Mal was named by Fiji Met this evening.
Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24
Posted: Tue 14/11/2023 08:36
by Nev
Fiji Met have just upgraded TC Mal to Cat 2. Central pressure currently 988 hPa and max winds of 50 knots.
While Fiji Met expect Mal to begin affecting Fiji's main island of Viti Levu from later this afternoon, most of the destructive winds will be later tonight, with Mal's centre expected to pass about 170km west of Nadi around 3am tomorrow morning.
Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24
Posted: Tue 14/11/2023 14:42
by Nev
Fiji Met now expecting Mal to become a Severe Cat 3 TC this evening, which is more in line with JTWC's recent forecasts. Central pressure currently 975 hPa, with max winds of 55 knots. Mal was also sporting a visible eye earlier, before it became cloud obscured.
Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24
Posted: Tue 14/11/2023 21:12
by Nev
TC Mel, currently Cat 2 with max winds of 60 knots, is likely to intensify into a Cat 3 TC tonight as it passes within 200 km of Fiji's main island of Viti Levu after midnight. Winds at Nadi are expected to reach 95 km/h with gusts up to 130 km/h.
Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24
Posted: Wed 15/11/2023 06:42
by Nev
Severe TC Mal was upgraded to Cat 3 just after midnight LT by Fiji Met, with max Winds of 65 knots, gusts to 90 knots and central pressure down to 970 hPa. Mal's centre was located 145 km WSW of Nadi at 3am LT this morning. However, increasing wind shear and dry air entrainment should start taking their toll on Mal today...
Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24
Posted: Wed 15/11/2023 08:37
by Nev
Severe TC Mal has continued to intensify a little more this morning, with max winds now at 70 knots and central pressure down to 965 hPa.
Reports of power outages and some flooding around Nadi.
Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24
Posted: Wed 15/11/2023 16:48
by Nev
Fiji Met dropped TC Mal down to Cat 2 earlier this afternoon with 60 knot max winds. JTWC on the other hand had Mal strengthening a little more today and maintaining an intense core, despite having begun to unravel with its fragmented convection slightly sheared to the east.
Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24
Posted: Thu 16/11/2023 13:10
by Nev
Former TC Mal was declared an Ex-TC by MetService this afternoon as it crossed into their Area of Responsibility. Earlier this morning Fiji Met downgraded Mal to Cat 1. No doubt JTWC will be issuing their final warning this afternoon.
Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24
Posted: Fri 01/12/2023 12:19
by Nev
There's a good chance we could see this season's third TC develop near the Solomons early next week.
GFS have been progging this for a while now, with other models gradually coming on board...
BoM - Tropical Cyclone Forecast
[Issued: Dec 01 0000z]
Tropical Low 02U
A High chance of a tropical cyclone developing near the Solomon Islands or far northeast of the Coral Sea next week.
* This weekend a tropical low, 02U, is likely to form within Fiji's area of responsibility.
* During Monday or Tuesday the system is likely to move into the Australian area of responsibility in the Solomon Sea, before turning towards the south or southwest.
* During next Wednesday or Thursday 02U could move into the far northeast Coral Sea.
* 02U has a Moderate chance of developing into a tropical cyclone from late Monday, and a High chance from late Wednesday.
* 02U is forecast to remain a long way from the Queensland coast and no direct impacts are expected.
Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24
Posted: Mon 04/12/2023 14:29
by Nev
The BoM now have a high chance of the tropical low currently tracking west over the Solomon Islands of becoming a TC from tomorrow night. Most main models expect it to intensify to Cat 3 or 4 before ultimately either crossing the QLD coast early to mid next week or skirting further down the QLD/NSW coast.
Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24
Posted: Tue 05/12/2023 07:05
by Nev
JTWC has issued a TC Formation Alert earlier this morning, also with a high chance of TC development in the next 12 to 24 hours.
Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24
Posted: Tue 05/12/2023 14:10
by Nev
The BoM are expecting to name our Solomon Islands low later today, then rapidly intensifying to a severe Cat 3 later on Wednesday and Cat 4 later on Thursday. Longer term, landfall somewhere on the Qld coast early next is looking more and more likely...
Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24
Posted: Tue 05/12/2023 16:27
by Nev
JTWC have issued their first TC Warning this afternoon.
Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24
Posted: Tue 05/12/2023 20:11
by Nev
TC Jasper has been named by the BoM this evening.
Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24
Posted: Tue 05/12/2023 20:14
by darcyplumb
Nev wrote: ↑Tue 05/12/2023 20:11
TC Jasper has been named by the BoM this evening.
Looking more and more likely that it will be a severe impact for Queensland - their first for a few years now. I believe Josh Morgerman from I Cyclone will be travelling down under to chase.
Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24
Posted: Tue 05/12/2023 21:05
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
darcyplumb wrote: ↑Tue 05/12/2023 20:14
I believe Josh Morgerman from I Cyclone will be travelling down under to chase.
Is he the "Hurricane Man" ?
Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24
Posted: Tue 05/12/2023 21:36
by darcyplumb
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Tue 05/12/2023 21:05
darcyplumb wrote: ↑Tue 05/12/2023 20:14
I believe Josh Morgerman from I Cyclone will be travelling down under to chase.
Is he the "Hurricane Man" ?
He sure is
Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24
Posted: Tue 05/12/2023 22:08
by Nev
darcyplumb wrote: ↑Tue 05/12/2023 20:14
Looking more and more likely that it will be a severe impact for Queensland - their first for a few years now.
Yes, although at this stage Jasper could end up making landfall just about anywhere along the Qld coast (if at all), but hopefully won't be any more than Cat 2 by then. TC Trevor in March 2019 was the last severe TC to hit the Qld coast up in Cape York as a Cat 3. Before that severe TC Debbie made landfall near Airlie Beach in March 2017 as a high end Cat 3 and was one of the most costliest and deadliest to have hit Qld.
Latest JTWC track map:
Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24
Posted: Wed 06/12/2023 14:39
by Nev
TC Jasper upgraded to Cat 2 by the BoM this afternoon, with a central pressure of 987 hPa and sporting a visible ragged eye. Jasper is expected to become a severe Cat 3 TC overnight tonight and peak at Cat 4 by Friday. At this stage the highest risk of an impact with the Qld coast early next week is for the region north of Mackay.
Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24
Posted: Wed 06/12/2023 21:04
by Nev
Severe TC Jasper has rapidly intensified to Cat 3 this evening. Central pressure at 977 hPa.
BoM expect Jasper will strengthen to a high-end Cat 4 later on Thursday and possibly even Cat 5 on Thursday night.