Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24

[Nev]

Severe TC Jasper's development stalled a little earlier today, but is still expected to strengthen to Cat 4 overnight tonight or during Friday. Central pressure currently 966 hPa, with 10 minute max winds of 80 knots (150 km/h).

Longer term, the majority of models have Jasper crossing the Qld coast mid next week on a westerly track between Cooktown and Mackay, including Cairns and Townsville.

[Nev]

Severe TC Jasper has been upgraded to Cat 4 this morning, with some further intensification expected today. Central pressure now at 943 hPa.

Over the weekend, Jasper will encounter less favourable conditions with increasing wind shear and dry air intrusion gradually weakening the system. However, those conditions are likely to improve early next week, which may see Jasper reintensify again just prior to landfall mid week.

[Nev]

Latest JTWC track map:

[Nev]

Severe TC Jasper reached its peak yesterday evening as a high-end Cat 4, with a central pressure of 938 hPa, max 10 minute winds of 105 knots (195 km/h) and gusts to 145 knots (270 km/h). Jasper remains at Cat 4 this morning, but is weakening due to increasing wind shear and dry air intrusion. Currently about 1100 km east of Cairns with a central pressure of 951 hPa and 95 knot max winds.

At this stage, landfall looks likely mid next week between Cape Melville and Townsville, possibly around Cairns. Longer term, there's a chance that Jasper could move across Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria towards next weekend, although there's uncertainty over whether it would retain enough structure to redevelop there.

[Nev]

TC Jasper has been downgraded to Cat 2 by the BoM this morning. Jasper weakened dramatically from a mid Cat 4 (95 knot max winds) yesterday afternoon to a low-end Cat 3 (65 knots max winds) by evening. Central pressure currently 979 hPa, with 60 knot max winds.

However, Jasper may reintensify to Cat 3 before making landfall most likely on Wednesday, as wind shear looks to dramatically decrease in the next day or two. Remoistening of the core and warm SST's along the shallow reefs should also assist that restrengthening.

[Nev]

TC Jasper has been downgraded to Cat 1 by the BoM this morning and has lost most of its deep convection overnight.
Currently about 600 km east of Cairns, with central pressure at 985 hPa and 45 knot max winds.

With some reintensification still expected prior to landfall, Jasper now looks likely to cross the coast as a Cat 2 TC on Wednesday, probably around or just north of Cairns.

[Nev]

TC Jasper remains at Cat 1 this afternoon. Wind shear has eased considerably and there was a resurgence of deep convective activity overnight and this morning. Jasper is currently about 240 km ENE of Cairns, with a central pressure of 988 hPa and max winds of 45 knots. Landfall now looks more likely tomorrow about 100 km NW of Cairns.

[Nev]

TC Jasper has been upgraded to Cat 2 By the BoM this afternoon.

[darcyplumb]

TC Jasper has been upgraded to Cat 2 By the BoM this afternoon.

I think we will see Jasper as a Cat 3 just before landfall. Those waters close to the coast there are so warm and we all know cyclones love to fire up overnight.

[Dean.]

Our friends in Cairns are typically complacent.
Looks like they will get a lot of rain being on the south side of the cyclone as it crosses near Port Douglas/Cape Tribulation on Wednesday.

[Nev]

The BoM aren't ruling out Cat 3 prior to landfall. They expect Jasper's max winds to reach 60 knots by tomorrow afternoon, so just 4 knots shy of Cat 3. Currently about 230 km ENE of Cairns with central pressure at 985 hPa and 50 knot max winds.

[Nev]

Jasper's resurgence to Cat 2 yesterday afternoon was short-lived and was relegated back to Cat 1 just after 10pm LT. However, Jasper has slowed considerably and conditions are still favourable for a return to Cat 2 before landfall later today. Currently about 175 km east of Cooktown, with 45 knot max winds.

[Nev]

TC Jasper has intensified back to Cat 2 this afternoon with redeveloping deep convection. Currently about 90 km ESE of Cooktown with max winds of 50 knots. Landfall is expected later tonight between Cooktown and Port Douglas.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Interesting to see how Jasper redevelops once it gets into the Gulf of Carpentaria ?

[Nev]

Cat 2 TC Jasper is slowly making landfall in the vicinity of Wujal Wujal, just north of Cape Tribulation, with max winds of 55 knots (100 km/h) and gusts to 75 knots (140 km/h). Central pressure at 985 hPa.

[Willoughby]

Some very decent falls to 9am today:

image.png

[Simon Culling]

Figures from BOM for the 24 hours to 9am on Thursday 14th December - top total was 624mm at Yandill in the Daintree catchment area. Thats more in one day than some eastern parts of the UK get in a year!!

Map copied from this tweet:

https://twitter.com/BOM_Qld/status/1735077472004186497

[Dean.]

A mate in Redlynch Cairns has just recorded 1100mm in 4 days....major flooding throughout tonight evacuating some areas

[tgsnoopy]

So this bridge...

Cairns Bridge 1.jpg

Looked like that a lil while back...

Cairns Bridge 2.jpg

Apparently it's now over the road!

Cairns Airport.jpg

Also the airports flooded!

[Nev]

JTWC have issued a TC Formation Alert this morning for a TD that's been brewing in the Coral Sea for a while now and have a high chance of it becoming a TC in the next 24 hrs. The BoM expect to name it possibly by Monday morning. Although there's still a fair amount of uncertainty, most models now expect that will it cross the central Queensland coast around mid week, possibly even as high as Cat 4 according to GFS.

[Nev]

BoM have issued their first track-map today.
At this stage they expect a possibly severe coastal crossing is most likely mid week between about Cairns and Mackay.

[tgsnoopy]

This looks like it might get nasty...

IDQ65001.jpg

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#90P

[darcyplumb]

This looks like it might get nasty...

IDQ65001.jpg

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#90P

For sure. It’s going to be a large system which increases the risk of widespread coastal inundation. Also long term modeling shows the system bringing flooding rains to SE QLD.

[Nev]

Yes, the sheer size of this system along with high vertical wind shear to the south has been slowing development. However, that shear should start to decrease today allowing further development to TC status overnight tonight or tomorrow.

[Nev]

JTWC have issued their first TC Warning for this system. Development has improved significantly today with good convective spiral banding starting to take shape. Wind shear has dropped to 10-15 knots. BoM also have max winds of 35 knots, so I expect she'll probably be named by this evening.