Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24

Discussion of weather and climate outside of NZ's waters. Australian weather, tropical cyclones and USA storm chasing feature here.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6331
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24

Unread post by Nev »

Severe TC Jasper's development stalled a little earlier today, but is still expected to strengthen to Cat 4 overnight tonight or during Friday. Central pressure currently 966 hPa, with 10 minute max winds of 80 knots (150 km/h).

Longer term, the majority of models have Jasper crossing the Qld coast mid next week on a westerly track between Cooktown and Mackay, including Cairns and Townsville.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6331
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24

Unread post by Nev »

Severe TC Jasper has been upgraded to Cat 4 this morning, with some further intensification expected today. Central pressure now at 943 hPa.

Over the weekend, Jasper will encounter less favourable conditions with increasing wind shear and dry air intrusion gradually weakening the system. However, those conditions are likely to improve early next week, which may see Jasper reintensify again just prior to landfall mid week.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6331
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24

Unread post by Nev »

Latest JTWC track map:
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6331
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24

Unread post by Nev »

Severe TC Jasper reached its peak yesterday evening as a high-end Cat 4, with a central pressure of 938 hPa, max 10 minute winds of 105 knots (195 km/h) and gusts to 145 knots (270 km/h). Jasper remains at Cat 4 this morning, but is weakening due to increasing wind shear and dry air intrusion. Currently about 1100 km east of Cairns with a central pressure of 951 hPa and 95 knot max winds.

At this stage, landfall looks likely mid next week between Cape Melville and Townsville, possibly around Cairns. Longer term, there's a chance that Jasper could move across Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria towards next weekend, although there's uncertainty over whether it would retain enough structure to redevelop there.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6331
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24

Unread post by Nev »

TC Jasper has been downgraded to Cat 2 by the BoM this morning. Jasper weakened dramatically from a mid Cat 4 (95 knot max winds) yesterday afternoon to a low-end Cat 3 (65 knots max winds) by evening. Central pressure currently 979 hPa, with 60 knot max winds.

However, Jasper may reintensify to Cat 3 before making landfall most likely on Wednesday, as wind shear looks to dramatically decrease in the next day or two. Remoistening of the core and warm SST's along the shallow reefs should also assist that restrengthening.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6331
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24

Unread post by Nev »

TC Jasper has been downgraded to Cat 1 by the BoM this morning and has lost most of its deep convection overnight.
Currently about 600 km east of Cairns, with central pressure at 985 hPa and 45 knot max winds.

With some reintensification still expected prior to landfall, Jasper now looks likely to cross the coast as a Cat 2 TC on Wednesday, probably around or just north of Cairns.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6331
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24

Unread post by Nev »

TC Jasper remains at Cat 1 this afternoon. Wind shear has eased considerably and there was a resurgence of deep convective activity overnight and this morning. Jasper is currently about 240 km ENE of Cairns, with a central pressure of 988 hPa and max winds of 45 knots. Landfall now looks more likely tomorrow about 100 km NW of Cairns.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6331
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24

Unread post by Nev »

TC Jasper has been upgraded to Cat 2 By the BoM this afternoon.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
darcyplumb
Posts: 823
Joined: Sun 06/12/2020 20:15
Location: Ashburton

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24

Unread post by darcyplumb »

Nev wrote: Tue 12/12/2023 17:37 TC Jasper has been upgraded to Cat 2 By the BoM this afternoon.
I think we will see Jasper as a Cat 3 just before landfall. Those waters close to the coast there are so warm and we all know cyclones love to fire up overnight.
Dean.
Posts: 1752
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 20:29
Location: Ashburton

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24

Unread post by Dean. »

Our friends in Cairns are typically complacent.
Looks like they will get a lot of rain being on the south side of the cyclone as it crosses near Port Douglas/Cape Tribulation on Wednesday.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6331
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24

Unread post by Nev »

The BoM aren't ruling out Cat 3 prior to landfall. They expect Jasper's max winds to reach 60 knots by tomorrow afternoon, so just 4 knots shy of Cat 3. Currently about 230 km ENE of Cairns with central pressure at 985 hPa and 50 knot max winds.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6331
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24

Unread post by Nev »

Jasper's resurgence to Cat 2 yesterday afternoon was short-lived and was relegated back to Cat 1 just after 10pm LT. However, Jasper has slowed considerably and conditions are still favourable for a return to Cat 2 before landfall later today. Currently about 175 km east of Cooktown, with 45 knot max winds.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6331
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24

Unread post by Nev »

TC Jasper has intensified back to Cat 2 this afternoon with redeveloping deep convection. Currently about 90 km ESE of Cooktown with max winds of 50 knots. Landfall is expected later tonight between Cooktown and Port Douglas.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18909
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Interesting to see how Jasper redevelops once it gets into the Gulf of Carpentaria ? o_O
JohnGaul
NZThS
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6331
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24

Unread post by Nev »

Cat 2 TC Jasper is slowly making landfall in the vicinity of Wujal Wujal, just north of Cape Tribulation, with max winds of 55 knots (100 km/h) and gusts to 75 knots (140 km/h). Central pressure at 985 hPa.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Willoughby
Site Admin
Posts: 4437
Joined: Sat 14/06/2003 16:18
Location: Darwin, Australia: Storm city

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24

Unread post by Willoughby »

Some very decent falls to 9am today:
image.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Simon Culling
Posts: 2450
Joined: Mon 23/11/2009 06:41
Location: Tiverton, Devon, UK

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Figures from BOM for the 24 hours to 9am on Thursday 14th December - top total was 624mm at Yandill in the Daintree catchment area. Thats more in one day than some eastern parts of the UK get in a year!!

Map copied from this tweet:

https://twitter.com/BOM_Qld/status/1735077472004186497
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Dean.
Posts: 1752
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 20:29
Location: Ashburton

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24

Unread post by Dean. »

A mate in Redlynch Cairns has just recorded 1100mm in 4 days....major flooding throughout tonight evacuating some areas
User avatar
tgsnoopy
Posts: 3667
Joined: Fri 25/03/2005 21:17
Location: Tauranga, NZ (Curse you COVID-19 :-( )

Cairns getting flooded

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

So this bridge...
Cairns Bridge 1.jpg
Looked like that a lil while back...
Cairns Bridge 2.jpg
Apparently it's now over the road!
Cairns Airport.jpg
Also the airports flooded!
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6331
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24

Unread post by Nev »

JTWC have issued a TC Formation Alert this morning for a TD that's been brewing in the Coral Sea for a while now and have a high chance of it becoming a TC in the next 24 hrs. The BoM expect to name it possibly by Monday morning. Although there's still a fair amount of uncertainty, most models now expect that will it cross the central Queensland coast around mid week, possibly even as high as Cat 4 according to GFS.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6331
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24

Unread post by Nev »

BoM have issued their first track-map today.
At this stage they expect a possibly severe coastal crossing is most likely mid week between about Cairns and Mackay.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
tgsnoopy
Posts: 3667
Joined: Fri 25/03/2005 21:17
Location: Tauranga, NZ (Curse you COVID-19 :-( )

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
darcyplumb
Posts: 823
Joined: Sun 06/12/2020 20:15
Location: Ashburton

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24

Unread post by darcyplumb »

tgsnoopy wrote: Mon 22/01/2024 16:58 This looks like it might get nasty...

IDQ65001.jpg

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#90P
For sure. It’s going to be a large system which increases the risk of widespread coastal inundation. Also long term modeling shows the system bringing flooding rains to SE QLD.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6331
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24

Unread post by Nev »

Yes, the sheer size of this system along with high vertical wind shear to the south has been slowing development. However, that shear should start to decrease today allowing further development to TC status overnight tonight or tomorrow.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6331
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf

Re: Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24

Unread post by Nev »

JTWC have issued their first TC Warning for this system. Development has improved significantly today with good convective spiral banding starting to take shape. Wind shear has dropped to 10-15 knots. BoM also have max winds of 35 knots, so I expect she'll probably be named by this evening.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.