Tropical Cyclone Lola

[Nev]

The BoM, Fiji Met and JTWC are closely monitoring the system east of the Solomon Islands, with the BoM rating its chances of becoming TC by Monday/Tuesday night as 'high' as it moves SW towards the Coral Sea. Although it's not expected to affect the Queensland coast, there's still a great deal of uncertainty among models as to exactly how it will track in the near future.

[Nev]

Fiji Met and the BoM now expect this system will be named by Monday morning, or possibly even earlier according to JTWC...

[Nev]

System has become much more organised overnight with significantly increased convection developing over and wrapping around LLCC.
JTWC already calling it a TC based on 1-minute max winds.

[Nev]

Tropical Cyclone Lola has just been named by Fiji Met, and according to JTWC could reach Cat 4 by Tuesday.

As alluded to in the General October thread, TC Lola now ties with TC Xavier in 2006 as the South Pacific's 4th earliest named TC since reliable records began from 1970. Only TC Bebe (Oct 20, 1972), TC Lusi (Oct 09, 1997) and TC Liua (Sep 27, 2018) were named earlier.

Edit: Nadi track-map updated.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I like the name Lola. It has a "Kinky" ring to it

[Nev]

Mod Note: Thought this TC probably deserves its own thread. Certainly worth keeping an eye on longer term...

[Nev]

Lola was upgraded to Cat 2 earlier this morning by Fiji Met, with 50 knot max winds and pressure down to 985 hPa.

[Blowy]

Hmmmm dont really need this

394651666_3482670841995225_6826066475343534873_n.jpg

[Nev]

Severe TC Lola upgraded to a high-end Cat 3 this afternoon by Fiji Met, and probably Cat 4 by tonight.
Lola now also sporting a discernible visible eye. Currently 80 knot max winds and pressure down to 970 hPa.
Thoughts go out to those in northern Vanuatu, who look set to take yet another severe battering tomorrow...

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Latest ECMWF have the remnants of Lola moving SE over NZ as a shallow depression next WE.

[Nev]

Lola was upgraded to Cat 4 earlier this morning by Fiji Met, with a 60 km wide eye, 95 knot max winds and pressure down to 950 hPa. Lola may even peak at Cat 5 later today or tonight before land interaction with Vanuatau starts taking its toll. Certainly one of the most rapidly intensifying TC's I've seen for a while...

[Nev]

Lola has just been upgraded to Cat 5 by Fiji Met this morning, with 110 knot max winds and pressure down to 940 hPa.
This is unprecedented for October!

[Razor]

Lola has just been upgraded to Cat 5 by Fiji Met this morning, with 110 knot max winds and pressure down to 940 hPa.
This is unprecedented for October!

Very worrying turn of events for folk in its path.

[Nev]

Yes, winds look much stronger this time than the battering Vanuatu took from last season's from TC Irene and TC Kevin.

Lola is about to make landfall on Vanuatu's northern islands. She intensified a little more today, with pressure currently down to 930 hPa and max wind of 115 knots. However, her eye has clouded over in the last few hours and she may have now peaked, as land interaction, cooler waters and strong mid-level westerly shear start to take their toll.

[Nev]

Lola was downgraded to Cat 4 earlier this morning, with max winds now currently down to 90 knots and pressure up to 955 hPa. Lola slowed down considerably overnight and after making landfall on the outer island of Pentecost earlier this morning, now looks to be heading directly for the capital Port Vila on Efate Island.
Interesting comment from JTWC last night, "All global and mesoscale models suggest this is going to be one of the most dramatic cases of rapid weakening on record". Still packing quite a punch this morning though...

Edit: track-maps updated.

[Nev]

Lola downgraded to Cat 3 by Fiji Met this afternoon, with 80 knot max winds and a central of 970 hPa.
Vortex getting decapitated by the onslaught of increasing westerly shear.

[Nev]

Lola has just been downgraded to Cat 1 by Fiji Met. Lola has undergone an extremely rapid vortex decoupling overnight, with the LLCC now completely exposed and devoid of convection in just less than 12 hours.

[Nev]

Just a footnote. As well as being one of earliest TC's on record to form in the South Pacific, Lola was also remarkable in that it took just 39 hours after being named to reach Cat 5, and just another 39 hours to weaken from Cat 5 to below TC status (possibly a record?).

And according to Weatherzone, TC Lola is now the earliest Category 5 Tropical Cyclone to form in the Southern Hemisphere.
The previous record holders were:

* TC Joan in 1975 and TC Graham in 1991 became Cat 5 on December 5th, both in Australia’s region
* In the South West Indian Ocean, the earliest Cat 5 (or ‘Very Intense Tropical Cyclones’) was TC Ambali on December 6th, 2019
* And in the South Pacific, TC Yasa was the previous earliest Cat 5 on December 15th, 2020

So TC Lola has beaten the previous Southern Hemisphere record by 42 days.