NZ Weather Forum

Looks like settled start for November unless we we get an interesting ULT moving across to stir things up ?

The GFS this morning has the moisture a bit further west over the NI, thunderstorm activity for the Central North Island and eastern NI ranges this afternoon/ evening.


Tomorrow there is an isolated thunderstorm risk from the lower NI to Southland. See what the models look like tomorrow with regard to the upper level temperatures and cloud cover.

The instability over the next few days is rather weak, but it is there, and it is rather widespread. Expect the unexpected!

Could see a nicely structure cell from my place in Kapiti, plenty of lightning on going. 1000+ CAPE according to GFS is a high number for this time of year

View from Wellington CBD of a lone convective cloud out over the east coast. Rain radar at the time.

Misty here overnight and this morning but clearing away to another hazy day with light southerlies.
Mild though, with it getting up to 19.7C.
Generally a cloudy day with clagg moving in this evening, not very interesting

TonyT wrote: ↑Wed 01/11/2023 08:39 The instability over the next few days is rather weak, but it is there, and it is rather widespread. Expect the unexpected!

Yes the risk has backed off since earlier in the week but hints still their.

The hill country west of Hawkes Bay looks the place for a few storms today and the lower South Island tomorrow afternoon/evening with the upper cold trough moving in.
It could be more active in the south Saturday.

There Is hints and weak signals even into early next week for both south island and north. Models seem very inconsistent though and teasing atm.

Guess it's just wait and see how things pan out over the coming days for both islands.

A big variable for instability this time of year can be daytime heating. A cold upper feature will cross NZ over coming days.

CLAGG.
One description for the weather here today. Grey overcast skies all day.
0.9mm of light rain from late afternoon and this evening.
Light SE this afternoon and calm this evening, also got the fire going tonight.
Hope for an improvement tomorrow

Eastern South Island areas up to Chch tomorrow for some thunderstorm activity.

spwill wrote: ↑Fri 03/11/2023 08:01 Eastern South Island areas up to Chch tomorrow for some thunderstorm activity.

Yes tomorrow does look promising

MS outlook for tomorrow….

Quite a wet morning. 16mm in the last hour

darcyplumb wrote: ↑Fri 03/11/2023 09:52 MS outlook for tomorrow….

If it was me I'd have a moderate risk area from Ashburton to timaru with a lower risk from Ashburton to chch. Looking at the models I believe the best spot will be between ashy and timaru.
Will be free to chase tomorrow

mikestormchaser wrote: ↑Fri 03/11/2023 10:00

darcyplumb wrote: ↑Fri 03/11/2023 09:52 MS outlook for tomorrow….

If it was me I'd have a moderate risk area from Ashburton to timaru with a lower risk from Ashburton to chch. Looking at the models I believe the best spot will be between ashy and timaru.
Will be free to chase tomorrow

My partner is away on a stag do all weekend so I’m at home with the kids… typical!!

darcyplumb wrote: ↑Fri 03/11/2023 10:02 My partner is away on a stag do all weekend so I’m at home with the kids… typical!!

"Kids, GET IN THE CAR, we are going on a road trip!"

BeaconHill wrote: ↑Fri 03/11/2023 13:48

darcyplumb wrote: ↑Fri 03/11/2023 10:02 My partner is away on a stag do all weekend so I’m at home with the kids… typical!!

"Kids, GET IN THE CAR, we are going on a road trip!"

Hahahaha I wish it was that easy!!

BeaconHill wrote: ↑Fri 03/11/2023 13:48

darcyplumb wrote: ↑Fri 03/11/2023 10:02 My partner is away on a stag do all weekend so I’m at home with the kids… typical!!

"Kids, GET IN THE CAR, we are going on a road trip!"

You could get a nice 'selfy' shot of you and your kids with a bolt of lightning in the background

Picked up 45mm locally - certainly more than I expected.

darcyplumb wrote: ↑Fri 03/11/2023 14:04

BeaconHill wrote: ↑Fri 03/11/2023 13:48
"Kids, GET IN THE CAR, we are going on a road trip!"

Hahahaha I wish it was that easy!!

You hardly need to travel anywhere, any storms always form/go through/near Ashburton.

David wrote: ↑Fri 03/11/2023 15:56 Picked up 45mm locally - certainly more than I expected.

You must have been in the same firing line as Whangaparaoa, who also picked 45mm today (also incl. 17mm in 1 hr)...

Just on 20mm here between 6am and 3pm today... Sun's out now.

The clagg cleared away overnight to become a sunny morning but with lots of watery looking Cu about.
Mild too, with today's maximum of 18.4C.
Becoming more cloudier as the afternoon moved om with it coming onto light rain later this afternoon and evening with it raining just before 10pm. 3.3mm for today.