High Risk storms Canterbury 4thNov

[Richard]

First high risk day for the spring storm season

Parts of the South Island are expected to be quite unstable this afternoon and early evening due to the combination of cold temperatures aloft, warm conditions at the surface, light winds, and a southerly wind change moving northwards over the southern South Island. This will produce scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms over parts of the South Island today.

There is a moderate or high risk of thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening about Canterbury, North Otago, eastern parts of Central Otago, and Dunedin, with the highest risk of thunderstorms about Canterbury this afternoon. These thunderstorms will produce localised heavy rain of 10-20mm/h, and hail mainly in the 5-20mm diameter range. There is also a low risk of a small tornado and/or funnel cloud.

About Canterbury however, where the risk of thunderstorms is higher, some of the storms may be squally with wind gusts to 80km/h, and there is also a low risk a few of the storms could be severe with damaging hail larger than 20mm diameter. Hail of this size can cause damage to crops, orchards and glass houses etc, and make driving conditions hazardous. The risk of a small tornado may also be slightly higher in Canterbury. MetService forecasters will monitor the situation, and people within Canterbury should keep up to date in case any Severe Thunderstorm Watches or Warnings are issued today.

There is also a moderate risk of a few thunderstorms about the ranges of Westland early this afternoon, and a low risk over the remainder of Westland this morning and afternoon. Any thunderstorms that occur here will bring brief heavy rain and small hail.

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[mikestormchaser]

Hopefully this pulls off to be another date to remember just have to ride it out and wait now. Will be on the road from around midday

[darcyplumb]

Currently have high cloud here with lower level cloud developing in patches. It feels very humid after the rain we had last night. Good luck to all who are chasing today. I’ll post updates from home

[JP.]

Few local stations in Christchurch already have 18c at 10am, DP around 12.5c.

Should be a very interesting afternoon, may head up the port hills on my bike and see if I can get some pics

[trickytiger]

I'm all ready to chase anywhere in Canterbury if anything fires up. Be nice to improve on my small funnel cloud picture taken sometime between 2015 - 2017

[darcyplumb]

Early signs are promising. Towers going up quite quickly to the south and west of Ashburton. in fact now that I’ve looked in all directions, I’m surrounded except for the north.

[dogmelon]

Where would be a good spot to drive to for a look from chch? I'm only an exceedingly casual observer, hence my <400 posts in 19 years lol, so I probly won't want to go too far. Any ideas?

[Storm Struck]

Good strong convergence across most of the region today, even the city has the stronger NE feed so should lead to some beefy cells up this end too.
Better spot for rotation convergence is south of Ashburton.

I would suggest west or south of the city fringes Dogmelon.

[dogmelon]

Thanks for the suggestion. It looks like the first one is underway wnw of ashburton on the radar. Have fun all.

[Powermad]

I'm right there now

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[darcyplumb]

View from Ashburton 1.23pm

[Classicford]

Hearing rumbles to the east here in waimate

[JP.]

Just got back from a MTB ride up Rapaki. Looks south west of the city currently. These were from the Montgomery spur

[JP.]

This from the middle of Lancaster Park 1:25pm

[Classicford]

Very heavy rain and hail now. Waimate

[dogmelon]

STWatch now

[Classicford]

Looking towards whitehorse from the back of my property. Consistent thunder and lightning.

[darcyplumb]

FYI

[Orion]

Hearing thunder now.

Will I be able to go out between 5:30pm and 7pm without getting hailed on?

[Classicford]

Very impressive storm over Waimate. Huge thunder and lightning, very heavy rain and hail.

[darcyplumb]

The most active I’ve seen the radar in quite some time. Just starting to spit with rain here now.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Thunder now all around us here in Geraldine, continuous now especially towards Mt. Peel and TC.

[trickytiger]

Thunder now all around us here in Geraldine.

Some alright looking clouds too, I'm in Geraldine atm heading inland a little bit

[dogmelon]

There's a warning for your way John. It's got interesting all of a sudden. I went for a drive and gave up cos I get anxious going too far.

[Orion]

My Westerfield Spy reports heavy hail now.

Must say the cloud about here looks quite nasty.