Thunderstorms hail, most parts of NZ New Years

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sun 31/12/2023 09:44

Thought I would start a new topic for today, as most of NZ all but I think eastern North Island has a risk today.
Latest on wind surface models suggests the southerly may not arrive until after 5pm now, instead of around early afternoon which it showed yesterday.
Could be something on the wind shift but it's not until later on for thunderstorms north of Rakaia.
The only thing I would change today is have a high risk.

Nice and warm this morning on 26C already and a light Northerly.
Good luck to all those chasing today where ever you are.
Will head out later on for sure.

RODALCO · Unread post by **RODALCO** » Sun 31/12/2023 10:18

2023-12-31_10-15-23.png

Some red activity on the rain radar, still West of New Zealand, moving in NW direction towards NZ. Potential for severe activity. See what happens.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sun 31/12/2023 11:27

Good luck to you guys in Canterbury chasing today.
Not expecting much here but with the dew point in the low 20s it is possible for a storm to develop. The current general dew point in Auckland today is 22C.

David · Unread post by **David** » Sun 31/12/2023 13:43

I see Auckland Airport almost at 28C! Northerly coming in off the Hauraki gulf keeping it capped around 26 locally.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Sun 31/12/2023 14:04

Steve, Aaron and I are just hanging about in leeston atm. Lots of time to kill looking at latest models.

Storms don't look likely until late in the evening for mid Canterbury and chch at night. Will head out whenever we need too. But obviously want to be down south before things fire. Might be a late night tonight

trickytiger · Unread post by **trickytiger** » Sun 31/12/2023 14:15

Best timeframe down here looks to be 6pm - 10pm I'm all ready to chase as well if anything fires up

darcyplumb · Unread post by **darcyplumb** » Sun 31/12/2023 14:16

mikestormchaser wrote: ↑Sun 31/12/2023 14:04 Steve, Aaron and I are just hanging about in leeston atm. Lots of time to kill looking at latest models.

Storms don't look likely until late in the evening for mid Canterbury and chch at night. Will head out whenever we need too. But obviously want to be down south before things fire. Might be a late night tonight

Still NW here. I was expecting an initial change around 12 and then another later on. Skies are looking a tad unstable to the south of here… you may see that from your spot too.

Classicford · Unread post by **Classicford** » Sun 31/12/2023 14:19

Have my eye on the sky here in waimate. Great view from my house on the little hill!

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sun 31/12/2023 14:29

Some weak CU forms going up near the city, more so southern Christchurch currently.
Is typical of the strong westerly to be shearing the tops over.
I don't expect too much until tonight, maybe the chance of a heavy shower around Lincoln Tai Tapu with small hail this afternoon.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Sun 31/12/2023 14:31

Can see that weak and very lackluster change from here

Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Sun 31/12/2023 14:34

Wind strong enough to catch boot-lid of car earlier, luckily dodged it.
Currently yawing around between westerly and southerly; 26.2°C, 28% humidity.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sun 31/12/2023 14:38

Some big cells have gone up Northland to Waikato with isolated storm acvtivity. Just a brief heavy shower here, a quick 5mm.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Sun 31/12/2023 15:05

trickytiger wrote: ↑Sun 31/12/2023 14:15 Best timeframe down here looks to be 6pm - 10pm I'm all ready to chase as well if anything fires up

Yes looks a late chase. Chch 10pm onwards thunder and hail risk. Heading down to ashburton now. Will stop for some food and hang about

darcyplumb · Unread post by **darcyplumb** » Sun 31/12/2023 15:24

Razor wrote: ↑Sun 31/12/2023 14:31 Can see that weak and very lackluster change from here

It’s been parked there since about 11am. Hardly any northward motion.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 31/12/2023 15:54

Nothing much happening here at the moment. Been mainly southery since about 2pm with westerly higher up.

darcyplumb · Unread post by **darcyplumb** » Sun 31/12/2023 16:28

Southerly quite gusty here now.

darcyplumb · Unread post by **darcyplumb** » Sun 31/12/2023 17:04

Some activity showing on radar on the coastal fringe near Timaru.

Powermad · Unread post by **Powermad** » Sun 31/12/2023 17:07

Sitting at Timaru airport waiting as fast as we can

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Sun 31/12/2023 17:07

Seems a bust here. Very pleasant evening, still norwest and nothing of interest on the southern horizon. I'd be saving my petrol chasers

darcyplumb · Unread post by **darcyplumb** » Sun 31/12/2023 17:11

Razor wrote: ↑Sun 31/12/2023 17:07 Seems a bust here. Very pleasant evening, still norwest and nothing of interest on the southern horizon. I'd be saving my petrol chasers

Don’t lose hope yet. The southerly has moved through here and we have towers going up across the sky.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sun 31/12/2023 18:00

Definitely patience, we are not used to waiting for a night time storm.
My lightning app has just picked up some strikes out of that band near Rangitata.
Things should develop fairly quickly from here on now.

trickytiger · Unread post by **trickytiger** » Sun 31/12/2023 18:01

Bit of thunder to the ne of temuka and more buildups close to here

Classicford · Unread post by **Classicford** » Sun 31/12/2023 18:01

Sky is starting to get messy around the Hunter Hills.

Powermad · Unread post by **Powermad** » Sun 31/12/2023 18:06

We just heard thunder east of Rangitata

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 31/12/2023 18:19

Powermad wrote: ↑Sun 31/12/2023 18:06 We just heard thunder east of Rangitata

Same here, Andrew, a bit distant though. I noticed Blitz picked up the strike.

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Thunderstorms hail, most parts of NZ New Years

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