Re: General February Weather

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Mon 29/01/2024 10:29

Cold surge coming weekend, something to watch with an in coming high press system dragging up a SW air flow.
Hopefully stays tru, will see how things look thursday/friday

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Tue 30/01/2024 12:44

Certainly does look like an unstable few days on Friday and Saturday. On Saturday the upper air is around -28c just to the east, could be some decent hail one to monitor closely.

Then we do a flip into next week with a potential heatwave of about 4 days in a row between 30 to 35C.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 01/02/2024 23:55

Generally a partly cloudy day to start of Feb, nothing much happening and gradually clouding up as the day worn become rather dull and overcast late afternoon and evening. 22.3C for today.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Fri 02/02/2024 07:44

The weather stays mainly fine over this weekend and into next week for the Waitangi area/Bay of Islands. I was up there for a few days this week and the weather was superb.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Fri 02/02/2024 10:29

Looks like we spend the entire month in 7/8. Which should mean a low pressure and easterly quarter biased flavour to weather patterns.

mjo_rmm.daily.20240130.png

However, the modelling is strongly in favour of high pressure anomalies, so something is a little screwed up somewhere in the system.

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-nz_wide-mslp_anom_30day-9596800.png

This apparent contradiction may not be quite as confounding as it sounds – for example we may well see high pressure systems dominate but in a weaker state than they often are. These high pressure systems may sit more over the South Island, directing weak (light) easterly airflows over the North Island without any major periods of strong easterly airflow arriving over New Zealand.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Fri 02/02/2024 22:58

Some overthrow rain early this morning with it clearing away to the east with a blue dome sky eventuating for a wee while but more cloud moving across from the west around 1pm, with rain then clearing later but one or two unstable clouds around. Not much wind, calm at times early this morning with barometer peeking out at 976hPa.
Southerly wind through around 5 30pm, clouding over later but becoming fine again this evening. Today's maximum was 22.2C.

cbm · Unread post by **cbm** » Sat 03/02/2024 12:03

Amazing temperature for midday in Feb under now sunny skies. Won't last long with the sun back again. Was a good thundery shower.

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Cantab03 · Unread post by **Cantab03** » Sat 03/02/2024 16:34

Sitting on 10 degrees here in CHCH, this time tomorrow will be around 27 at the same time. Was hoping to get a bit of rain today, but just a shower or two that wasn't enough to be measurable. Hot weather coming Sunday to Wednesday.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 03/02/2024 23:04

Calm and a bit cool overnight with high cloud layers giving away to a fine but cloudy morning but with instability developing from the oncoming rather cold influenced southerly moving in resulting into what could be described as "Thundery Showers" moving across moving north from noon onwards, by saying "Thundery Shower", I mean lots of thunder was heard but no lightning seen.
Apparently there was a waterspout observed off Patti Point this morning. I can understand this as surface hPas were very low.
Anyway, various hail showers occured with the thunderstorms as they moved across the region before settling down later this afternoon and evening with a total clearance and a black dome and calm sky this evening. 17.1C the maximum for today before the cold air moved over and 7.5mm of precipitation (rain and hail) for today.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Sun 04/02/2024 07:17

5 degrees to start a 28 forecast degree day

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sun 04/02/2024 08:15

The big weather feature this week will be sunshine apart from southern NZ which will have the frontal cloudiness.
Looking particularly sunny for the 7 day period ahead.

David · Unread post by **David** » Sun 04/02/2024 15:03

850mb temps up to 25C on Tuesday for upper NE of the South Island!

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sun 04/02/2024 18:40

Temperature has been steadily climbing since about 4pm, as most of the day has been around 24C with a breezy NE.
NW kicked in not long ago and 27C now.

The next few days could well be some of our hottest for Raumati.
Will be around 33 to 34C tomorrow in some areas, and potentially pushing past 35C for Tuesday.
We tend to forget even though we've mainly finished our holidays, that summer still has a lot to go. Even counting in March these days.

I'm sure we all remember when the highest temperature record was set.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 04/02/2024 18:59

Storm Struck wrote: ↑Sun 04/02/2024 18:40 I'm sure we all remember when the highest temperature record was set.

Yes, I remember that day well. 7th February 1973. Now that's what I call hot.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sun 04/02/2024 20:21

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Sun 04/02/2024 18:59 Yes, I remember that day well. 7th February 1973. Now that's what I call hot.

Shouldn't that be... 'Scorchio' ...lol

midgrove · Unread post by **midgrove** » Sun 04/02/2024 21:30

And the 850 temp for the christchurch met office midday sounding (93780) for that day was 27 deg!

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Sun 04/02/2024 21:50

Razor wrote: ↑Sun 04/02/2024 07:17 5 degrees to start a 28 forecast degree day

We did 7.1 to 31.1 here today, so 24deg range, the greatest I can recall measuring. I suspect some other parts of the region may have got even more, eg Culverden, Richard?

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 04/02/2024 23:04

WE had a temperature range of 25.5deg from 4.7C overnight to 30.2C today.
Fine sunny day, not much wind but a westerly picked up this afternoon. with some interesting lenticular cloud forms especially around sunset.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Mon 05/02/2024 06:23

TonyT wrote: ↑Sun 04/02/2024 21:50 We did 7.1 to 31.1 here today, so 24deg range, the greatest I can recall measuring. I suspect some other parts of the region may have got even more, eg Culverden, Richard?

Of the MS sites, it looks like Timaru Aero had yesterday's greatest temp range...

Diurnal temp range (°C) on Feb 04
4.1 - 30.1 = 26.0 ... Timaru Airport
5.5 - 29.3 = 23.8 ... Ashburton Airport
4.1 - 27.8 = 23.7 ... Christchurch Airport

Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Mon 05/02/2024 08:34

Just for the record, an hour ago temps were
indoors: 19.9°C
outdoors: 13.0°C

indoors now 21.7°C
outdoors now 15.0°C

Blue skies and sun. Slight southerly drift.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Mon 05/02/2024 08:52

Last night it didn't drop to 16C until 5am, which made it particularly difficult for the fire crews battling the large fire near Kirwee.
Also the wind would have been a strong westerly there, dragging the smoke out east over the city. Had to get up and close the windows as the smoke smell was quite strong.
Hopefully they can get it under control this morning before temperatures rocket, they have 7 helicopters in the air currently.

It may be similar today for the city, except the NW might arrive a little earlier.
19C with a light NE over this side, but light Northerly at the airport.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Mon 05/02/2024 09:26

Deeply concerning week ahead. Kirwee fire is now contained. Another one has started up at View Hill beyond Oxford. Its going to be a long few days

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Mon 05/02/2024 10:38

spwill wrote: ↑Sun 04/02/2024 08:15 The big weather feature this week will be sunshine apart from southern NZ which will have the frontal cloudiness.
Looking particularly sunny for the 7 day period ahead.

Yes Main focus this week will be heat for sure. Settled for much and warm summer temperatures

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Mon 05/02/2024 13:47

Getting very warm here, 32.2 deg and still climbing, light winds from the NE, the hot wind for here

Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Mon 05/02/2024 14:37

Much the same here, although NE wind is moderate, making small branches move constantly. 32.0°C

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