Thunderstorm risk 1-3 Feb

[Storm Struck]

Seemed to be a fast developing storm that blew up on the tail end of the cold front over the upper south Tony.

I don't think we will see any thunderstorms with the SW moving up the plains which is near Ashburton currently. Just a strong dry change.
You can see the CB development that is way offshore of the eastern south island from here though.
Maybe the Akaroa heads might catch something this evening.

Tomorrow was always the better day of the two, still firmly thinking that hail could be 20+mm in the afternoon.

Edit: 9:25pm just as I suspected a thunderstorm has gone off through the Akaroa heads, Te Oka and Peraki areas.
Also a few heavy showers near Leeston.

Screenshot_20240202_212441_Samsung Internet.jpg

[Storm Struck]

Very strange that MS have dropped the hail to just small size for today of all days .
There's actually a storm currently active off the coast of Timaru this morning, and very active off the west coast too.
Social media page has a photo of a waterspout off the coast of Timaru from that cell too. Obviously there might be potential for rotation in stronger storm cells today.
There will be a few showers about this morning but things will develop quickly from about 12:30pm onwards.

[mikestormchaser]

Had that cell off shore from timaru been on land that would be severe warned. That's a very intense storm.

The models have de creased the chances a little bit from this mornings GFS run but potential is still their.

[Razor]

Spillover NW rain is being very annoying for kids cricket this morning. If this remains much longer there's no chance of storms

[darcyplumb]

I’m not getting ‘storm vibes’ today at all but would happily be proven wrong haha

A great photo on CWU of a waterspout from the cell off the coast from Timaru this morning.

[Storm Struck]

That cell is still very active, should get sucked in to Banks Peninsula if it stays together.
Good bit of rain currently but I do see brighter skies to the south, this band should clear off soon.
Light westerly and 13c, won't get any higher than 17C today.

[darcyplumb]

That cell is still very active, should get sucked in to Banks Peninsula if it stays together.
Good bit of rain currently but I do see brighter skies to the south, this band should clear off soon.
Light westerly and 13c, won't get any higher than 17C today.

Slowly brightening up here with patches of blue sky starting to appear.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Just heard some distant thunder to the south of here but looks as though that is moving out to sea.

[Richard]

Just heard some distant thunder to the south of here but looks as though that is moving out to sea.

No, moving up the plains, see a cell has now formed near Mt Peal

[Storm Struck]

Starting to come together now with several thunderstorms down near Timaru and another just formed near Ashburton.
Plenty of CU about and heating up to 15c now.

[Classicford]

Looks to be a bit of activity developing North and east of waimate.

[Nev]

Pic of that waterspout(s) off the coast of Timaru earlier this morning.
There were reportedly '6 different funnel clouds each forming and touching down before dissipating after about 2 minutes'...

Timaru Waterspot ℅ Steve McKnight (via MS) Feb 02.jpeg

https://twitter.com/MetService/status/1 ... 6317035716

[Nev]

And a great video on Stuff...

'Watch: ‘Spectacular’ waterspout spotted off coast of Timaru'

[darcyplumb]

The core of the main cluster of cells appears to be moving inland across the plains.

[Orion]

Hearing a bit of thunder, and it's raining, southeasterly, 16.7°C currently.

[darcyplumb]

Hearing a bit of thunder, and it's raining, southeasterly, 16.7°C currently.

Anything from your Westerfield spy? Just boring old rain in town where I am. Such a shame but always hit and miss with storms of course.

[JP.]

Not even rain yet here close to the CBD in Chch. Low grey clouds. Nothing much else to say

[Orion]

Hearing a bit of thunder, and it's raining, southeasterly, 16.7°C currently.

Anything from your Westerfield spy? Just boring old rain in town where I am. Such a shame but always hit and miss with storms of course.

My Westerfield Spy was actually here with me but was receiving information from Westerfield where it was raining and thundering.

[darcyplumb]

Torrential rain here now with wind driven pea sized hail.

[Storm Struck]

Went out for a quick chase just behind the airport as I could thunder rumbling from the cell over Templeton area.
Had unfortunately died when I reached it with just heavy rain.

New cell developing just west of the city now, is one to watch closely.

[Orion]

Temp. 12°C and dropping here now, quite gusty at times from about SSE.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Just heard some distant thunder to the south of here but looks as though that is moving out to sea.

No, moving up the plains, see a cell has now formed near Mt Peal

Moving up the plains, all right there, Richard.
Just came back from chasing all over the place around here in Geraldine with lots of cells popping up with lots of thunder but no lightning seen, all up in the clouds. Ran through lots of hail showers around Orari then Geraldine. Hail between 5 and 10cm falling. Photos later.

[darcyplumb]

Sun is coming out here again but much cooler on 9 degrees. I can see some towers going up again to my south.

[Richard]

Dark line of cloud coming this way. Will there be thunder

3rdF.JPG

[mikestormchaser]

Got the thunderstorms down near Mt somers and inland rakaia gorge, saw a beautiful purple CG that struck the field next to us while driving. Had we been out with the camera and aiming at it, at the time it would have been a fantastic shot. Encountered some hail about 10 to 15mm diameter max. Some good structure but nothing supercellular today, lack of a NE and weak wind sheer aloft.