UK Weather - Spring 2024

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Simon Culling
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UK Weather - Spring 2024

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Today is the first day of meteorological Spring here in the Northern Hemisphere, but this has not brought a change in the weather. It has been another wet and windy day over the UK with plenty of heavy showers following the overnight rain - there has even been a cover of snow to the higher parts of Ireland and northern England + Wales. Down here in the SW we had a wild and wet night followed by a rash of showers today and it has certainly felt a bit colder with a high of only 8°C and a stiff SW breeze. For mid-Devon, the average max/min for early March should be around 10°C/3°C.

There is more excitement about an imminent SSW event, but we could do without this and a cold + wet spring. Most of the models are keen on it happening and with the accompany wind reversal higher up in the Arctic atmosphere. They are also increasingly keen on a Scandinavian high pressure block becoming established next week with a resulting easterly flow over the UK which will still be cold a this time of the year. At least it might be a bit drier!
Simon Culling
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2024

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The wet weather has continued as we move into early Spring but it has turned a bit colder and we are seeing a touch of frost on most nights - even down here in the SW. Yesterday was another wet day, particularly here in SW England with 10-15mm quite widely and a cold and strong SE wind which gusted up to around 40mph for much of the afternoon - making it a driving rain. Looking forward it should be quite a bit drier for the rest of the working week, but the rain looks to return for the weekend. The Scandi high and an easterly keeps being shunted further backwards by the models!

The Northern Lights were seen quite widely over the UK on Sat/Sun (2nd/3rd March) night and were photographed by many. It was foggy here in Tiverton and that combined with all the street lighting meant I did not see it. Attached is a photo from Seaton which is on the River Axe in Devon which gives a general view. On the couple of occasions I have seen it in the UK, it has been very faint with the colours difficult to see. I am thinking that photographic exposures significantly enhance what is likely to be seen naturally by the naked eye?

The CET for March was 4.1°C (-1.6°C) up to the 3rd and the EWR was 13mm up to the 2nd, which is 20% of the monthly mean of 65mm.
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Orion
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2024

Unread post by Orion »

Simon Culling wrote: Tue 05/03/2024 23:03
The Northern Lights were seen quite widely over the UK on Sat/Sun (2nd/3rd March) night and were photographed by many. It was foggy here in Tiverton and that combined with all the street lighting meant I did not see it. Attached is a photo from Seaton which is on the River Axe in Devon which gives a general view. On the couple of occasions I have seen it in the UK, it has been very faint with the colours difficult to see. I am thinking that photographic exposures significantly enhance what is likely to be seen naturally by the naked eye?
...
Has been a while since I've seen an aurora but I think you are correct, a longer exposure for photos enhances brightness and saturates colours. Peripheral vision often shows up faint light and colour better.
The most intense aurora I've ever seen was one in April 1990, whole southern sky was memorably red and I think it was seen quite widely in NZ. I heard the "rustling silk" sound-effect with that one...
Simon Culling
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2024

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Orion, the southern island of NZ seems to get as many views of the aurora as we do in southern Britain despite NZ being a few degrees closer to the equator. One thing on my list is to spend a few weeks in the Highlands of Scotland in winter where I should get a proper view.

The very average weather continues here in the UK and as we are now in a period of Spring Tides, there are quite a few coastal flood warnings + alerts in place as well as quite a few for groundwater flooding. This is not due to any storminess, but to the fact we have had so much rain for the last few months and both the rivers are running high and groundwater levels are at the surface. With such high river levels (and flows), the water can back up at high tide and cause flooding not just on the coast but further inland. The rain, unfortunately, is continuing and the forecast for the next 5 days is for increasingly mild temperatures (up to 16/17°C in the SE) but with further rain/showers.

The CET for March was 6.2°C (+0.5°C) up to the 12th and the EWR was 37mm up to the 11th which is 56% of the monthly average.
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2024

Unread post by Simon Culling »

As anticipated in my last post, the wet weather has continued, although it has turned milder with daytime temperatures of 15°C today and yesterday here in Tiverton with some sunshine - however, we did have 20mm+ rainfall Saturday into Sunday. The forecast is not much better for the next five days with predominantly cloudy skies and some rain/showers and with cooler temperatures by the weekend as the winds swing around to the NW. Spring has not really sprung, yet.

The current wet spell has apparently produced the third wettest 12-month period since the England & Wales precipitation series started way back in 1766. Up to February this year, the running 12-month total (for England & Wales) was 1327mm and the record highest value is 1355mm for the 12-month period April 2000 to march 2001.

The CET for March was 7.5°C (+1.9°) up to the 17th and the EWR was 58mm up to the 16th, which is 89% of the monthly total. Won't be long before the monthly average is exceeded yet again.
Simon Culling
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2024

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The relentless rain continues here in the UK and the lead up to the Easter weekend will see a continuation of the unsettled weather. We might see a dryish Sat/Sun, but the rain will return in time for Bank Holiday Monday. It has also turned quite a bit cooler in the last few days with snow over the higher ground in Scotland and there are some indications that quite a potent northerly will arrive in early April to continue the cold theme. The temperature fell to -7°C in parts of northern Scotland this morning (Monday 26th March), although here in Tiverton we were no lower than +6°C with patchy fog around dawn - it looked very autumnal rather than spring-like.

We are all getting rather fed up with the non-stop rain and lack of sunshine.......the only good news must be that to balance all this rain we will likely at some stage soon see a drier than average period. Let's hope that corresponds with the coming summer.

The CET for March was 8.1°C (+2.5°C) up to the 25th and the EWR was 70mm up to the 24th which is 107% of the monthly average.
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2024

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The UK is still wet and is now rather cooler than it was for much of the month of March. The last few days has seen a mix of heavy rain, sleet and snow, thunder and even large hailstones. An area of rain moved northwards over SW England on Wednesday evening (27th March) and readily turned to snow on its western side as evaporative cooling in the light winds allowed the temperature to drop sufficiently. Over the higher parts of Dartmoor they had 6-8" of snow, but even the low ground and down to the seashore had a slight cover in eastern Cornwall and the west side of Devon. Here in Tiverton we were on the boundary of the rain and snow and had a few hours of heavy sleet (about 20mm for the event) but it never quite transitioned to be fully snow, so we had no more than a little slush on the ground. However, we had a nasty frost on Thursday morning as the cloud cleared after the rain/snow finished and it made the roads very slick around dawn. First photo is Princetown (elevation 400m) in the evening snow.

Yesterday (Thurs 28th March) another low (around 965mb) moved NE across the western side of England + Wales and left the southern half of the UK in a very showery S-SW flow. Lots of showers developed in bands and one cell travelled from the south coast NNE into the Midlands (about 200 miles) during the afternoon and showed some supercellular characteristics. It produced large hail for the time of year, with some stones being in excess of 30mm across. The photo below is of one such stone, which looks like an agglomeration, observed at Church Stowe which is in Northamptonshire - just to the SW of Althorp House.
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Simon Culling
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2024

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The relentless miserable weather continues here in the UK, but there are hints in the models of high pressure finally asserting more of an influence from mid-month. A drying out would be very welcome, especially for the farming community who are some way behind with spring planting as the ground is so wet. Before that may (or may not) happen, we still have plenty of rain and now wind to come. This morning (Thurs 4th April) Met Eireann has named Storm Kathleen which is currently forming to the SW of the UK and will move north just to the west of Eire on Saturday. It will give a windy day to all of the UK and particularly Eire, with bands of rain and showers as well for all. It will also drag some very warm air (for the time of the year) northwards over most of Western Europe and this will affect more eastern parts of the UK to give them a warm but breezy day with most of the sunshine and little of the rain - we could easily see 21°C reached in this area.

The final CET for March was 8.1°C (+2.5°C) and the final EWR was 111mm which is 169% of the monthly average. The month was generally much wetter, warmer and duller than average for most of the UK, but NW Scotland had a much drier and sunnier month than might be expected. Met Office summary attached - from their blog.

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2024/04/0 ... wet-march/
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2024

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Storm Kathleen duly moved north just to the west of Eire with a lowest central pressure analysed around 953mb on Saturday evening. It is now (mid afternoon Sunday) roughly between Scotland + Iceland, but is giving the UK another windy day. Looking at the media reports, there have been quite a few trees toppled, but structural damage appears to have been minimal. The effect of the stormy seas has been felt in coastal areas with some local flooding. The BBC report quotes a windspeed of 90mph, but gusts of this order were over the tops of the mountains. The highest gusts where people live were around 70mph - the highest I can find is 73mph at Drumalbin which is located on the edge of Scottish Southern Uplands.

The warm air on the eastern + southern flank of the low gave England its warmest day of the year so far on Saturday with a high of 20.9°C at Santon Downham in East Anglia.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2808nl1gd4o

A few more days of rain and showers to come up to the middle of the coming week, but it looks a bit more settled and drier from Friday onwards as high pressure becomes established to our south over France/Spain. Might be a touch warmer also.
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2024

Unread post by Simon Culling »

Another low pressure system (named Storm Pierrick by Meteo France) moved NNE right over the UK on Monday/Tuesday (8/9th April) bringing heavy rain + strong winds (gusts to around 70mph) with high sea to much of the coasts, but especially the south coast of England. As the storm coincided with the Spring Tides there was quite a bit of local flooding from both the sea and backed up rivers. BBC report gives more details, but the local news has more material/pictures as linked in the article.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-68773277

Thankfully, this looks to be the last of the deep depressions for the time being.

The CET for April was 11.0°C (+3.1°C) up to 10th and the EWR was 48mm up to the 9th which is 76% of the monthly average of 63mm.
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2024

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The weather calmed down briefly at the end of last week and over the weekend and much of England + Wales enjoyed a couple of warmer and drier days. The highest temperature of the year so far was recorded in the SE on Saturday (13th April) with 21.8°C being measured at Writtle in Essex and 21.6°C at St James Park in London. However, this was a brief interlude because a very active cold front swept across the whole of the UK overnight Sunday into Monday bringing further heavy rain + gales, and even a couple of probable tornadoes in Staffordshire + Nottinghamshire around dawn on Monday. Since then it has remained very windy + showery and it has been quite a bit cooler.

The wind event in Staffordshire (in the Stoke suburb of Knutton) was caught on video.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-englan ... e-68820755
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2024

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The weather has calmed down considerably since the active cold front on last Monday and we have got stuck in a N to NE flow off a cold North Sea with predominantly cloudy skies and a nagging breeze. With high pressure anchored firmly to our west at least the endless run of lows and fronts, with their attendant rain, has been curtailed for a while. However, we did have a beautiful day yesterday (Sat 20th April) here in Tiverton with just a few puffs of cumulus and unbroken sunshine - and with a light breeze, it still felt very pleasant despite a maximum of only 14°C. Clear skies overnight did lead to a slight ground frost on Sunday (today) morning.

Looking ahead and there is still no sign of any real warmth in the models - the general N flow looks like persisting with a number of fronts pushing into the high to give some rain as well this week and highs only in the range of 10-12°C. It was often milder in February + March!!

The CET for April was 10.6°C (+2.7°C) up to the 19th and the EWR was 65mm, also up the 19th, which is 103% of the monthly average. Despite the weather appearing poor this April, it is still much warmer than average which is due to all the cloud and the mild nights. However, despite this mildness, we haven't had any decent warmth so far.
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2024

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The cool & unsettled weather has continued here in the UK with plenty of showers and an extended spell of heavy rain in more central and eastern parts of England overnight Saturday into Sunday - generally around 20mm, but up to about 40mm in a few places. Thankfully we missed the worst of this rain here in the SW and today (Sunday 28th April) has been fine and dry with some well needed sunshine - although it was still cool with a high of only 12°C in Tiverton in the NW breeze.

The showery weather produced a number of funnel clouds and waterspouts on Thursday, Friday + Saturday this week (25th, 26th + 27th April) in SW England and the SE of Ireland. Below is a photo of a waterspout seen on Thursday off the Cornish coast at Tintagel. Those who know their UK history will be aware that the mythical King Arthur (famous for his Knights of the Round Table and his sword Excalibur) was allegedly born at Tintagel Castle.

The second picture is of five funnel clouds seen at the same time around dawn at Wicklow Harbour in the SE of Eire on Friday morning. This is quite a rare occurrence for the British Isles.

On a positive note, the weather looks set to warm up next week with the mercury approaching 20°C by the weekend. Hopefully, it will be drier as well.
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Simon Culling
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2024

Unread post by Simon Culling »

First plume event of the 'summer' arrived across the south of the UK overnight May Day Monday into Tuesday, but the warmth has been restricted to more eastern and northern parts of the UK - up to 22°C in East Anglia + NW Scotland. However, not so down here in the SW as we struggled to get to 13°C on Monday. The plume brought some very active thunderstorms (in lightning terms) across S + SE England and westwards across the South Midlands to South Wales during the early hours of Tuesday and a big area of heavy rain to the SW of England - here in Tiverton we did not have any thunder, but did get 40mm of rain overnight. The map below is of the rainfall totals for the 18 hours ending 09Z on Tuesday 2nd May (courtesy of Roost Weather) and shows how heavy the rain was in the SW. The thunderstorms further east gave 5-15mm of rain only.

The map has a combination of Met Office + Environment Agency rain gauges.
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Simon Culling
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2024

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The weather is trying to dry out, but it is a struggle - however high pressure will mean it will be essentially dry from tomorrow for the rest of the week and into the weekend - and warming up at last. Today (our May Day Bank Holiday), it is very wet in the SE of England with upwards of 30mm of rain falling in some places overnight and continuing into the afternoon. The rest of the country is showery, but there is some sunshine around between the rainfall. Here in Tiverton we have seen a few showers develop, but no rain so far (mid-afternoon now) on the town - and it has actually felt quite warm in the sunshine as the mercury has reached 18°C.

NW Scotland has seen the best of the weather in the last week with plenty of sunshine and it currently holds the highest temperature of the year award with 24.1°C reached at Port Henderson on Thursday 2nd May.

The final CET for April was 9.6°C (+1.7°C) and the final EWR was 95mm, which is 151% of the monthly average. Note, that the Hadley Centre is still using the 1961-1990 averages for comparison purposes - April was only +0.6°C above the 1991-2020 average for the CET. Met Office summary for April linked below and for the UK as a whole it was warmer, wetter + duller than average. The dullness was the most noticeable with the UK receiving just 79% of the monthly average.

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2024/05/0 ... ull-april/
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2024

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We have been enjoying some dry and warm weather here in the UK for the last four days with the temperature well into the twenties in many places. Today (Saturday 11th May) it was the warmest day of the year so far with 26°C being recorded in both SE England and NW Scotland. However, the dominance of high pressure will be short lived and there will be a thundery breakdown from the SW tomorrow and next week will see a return to the unsettled theme with showers or longer periods of rain on most days, and it will be much cooler again.

The aurora was well seen from all of the UK on Friday night and even here in Tiverton town I managed to see a faint pink/mauve glow to the north just before midnight. The display out in the countryside and away from the city lights was better, but down here in the SW of England I do not think it was spectacular. Many of the photographs capture a lot more detail than is visible to the naked eye. Some great pictures on this BBC piece from the UK and other parts of the world.

The CET for May was 13.5°C (+2.3°C) up to the 10th and the EWR was 20mm up to the 9th which is 32% of the monthly average of 63mm.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/in-pictures-68995685
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2024

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The warmth peaked on Sunday (12th May) in the SE with 27.5°C being reached at Chertsey Abbey Meads in SW London, which is not bad for early May. Quite a few thunderstorms broke out from mid-afternoon in more western areas in the afternoon - but managed to miss us in Tiverton - and they moved N and E into the evening giving 30mm+ of rain in places and marble sized hail as well (up to about 25mm in diameter). The attached lightning map (from Blitzortung) for 12th May gives an idea of the distribution - about half of the total strikes figure (152K) occurred over the UK - the rest were over northern France.

Since then we have gone back to the unsettled and much cooler weather and the sunshine has mostly gone - it really has been a miserable first few months of 2024 for sunshine. Let's hope the average will be re-stablished by a long, dry + warm spell of weather. :-)
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Simon Culling
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2024

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The weather has not been too bad in the last few days with plenty of warm sunshine, although showers and thunderstorms have returned to many parts in the last couple of days. Here in Tiverton, Sunday to Tuesday (19th to 21st May) were predominantly sunny and warm with a maximum of 21°C on all three days. We did have a few rumbles of thunder on Tuesday, but the storm formed to our SE and never got any closer.

Attached is a picture of a funnel cloud seen from the City of Derry Airport in Northern Ireland on Monday afternoon.

The next few days wil be rather wet over the UK, especially in NW England, North Wales and many parts of Scotland as a low moves NW from the Benelux area and across the UK and out into the Atlantic by Friday - this is a very unusual direction (and track) for a low pressure to move on. Could be some heavy falls of rain in more northern parts of the UK over the next couple of days.
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Simon Culling
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2024

Unread post by Simon Culling »

We are back in a run of unsettled weather again with rain or showers on most days. It is on the mild side (for the time of year), but does not feel very summery - indeed it felt rather chilly here in Tiverton in the wind yesterday (Bank Holiday Monday 27th May) despite plenty of sunshine between the showers. We had a thunderstorm on Sunday morning with about 10 minutes of torrential rain + a little small hail. This gave the loudest thunder I have heard for a while - there is always something magical about loud rolling thunder.

After a few more changeable days, high pressure looks set to move into the western side of the UK to give us some drier and warmer weather for the weekend and into next week.

The CET for May was 14.1°C (+3.0°C) up to the 27th and the EWR was 78mm, up to the 26th which is 124% of the monthly average. Despite me whinging about the rainy weather it has been very mild and if the anomaly stays around +3.0°C, it will be the second or third warmest May in the whole CET series.
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2024

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The final CET for May was 14.1°C (+2.9°C) and the final EWR was 91mm, which is 145% of the monthly average. This was the second warmest May in the 365-year series, although it certainly did not feel like it. It was a long way behind the stand alone record of 15.1°C, which occurred way back in 1833.

Spring turned out to be the warmest in the entire CET record with a mean of 10.6°C beating the previous record of 10.3°C which was set in both 2011 and 2017. It was much more down to the very warm nights (and lack of frost) rather than warm and sunny days.

Still awaiting the Met Office monthly and seasonal report which uses the UK composite figures rather than the CET. Still likely to be the warmest Spring on record in these figures.
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Re: UK Weather - Spring 2024

Unread post by Simon Culling »

The Met Office summary for May and the Spring has now been published and it was indeed both the warmest May and Spring in the gridded data set that goes back to 1884. Much of the population appears not to agree with this, but the warm nights were the key factor along with very little air being sourced from the colder quadrant of the NW to the NE.

May 2024 was much warmer than normal and also wetter, but it was also very dull with the UK average sunshine at just 159 hours or 83% of normal. The dullness has been very noticeable all Spring with very few warm + sunny days.

Met Office summary in this link:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/n ... for-the-uk
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