Hurricane Milton

[Storm Struck]

One for the record books already.
Down to 905hpa with sustained winds of 180mph gusts to 220mph.
Still intensifying, very worrying for Florida if it stays this strong across very warm waters.

Pretty much labeled a category 6

[spwill]

It is currently forecast to weaken to a cat 3 by the time it reaches Florida but still looking very bad for the very populated Tampa Bay area.
There will be plenty of live coverage with this storm on Thursday morning our time.

[darcyplumb]

Mainstream media in the US have really latched onto the weakening that’s expected before landfall. Katrina is a prime example of what happens when a weakening hurricane makes landfall. The storm gets larger, the wind field expands and the storm surge increases. This will be a complete disaster for Tampa Bay and surrounds, something that no one there has ever seen. Something to note as well is that the storm has already exceeded strength expectations meaning that the weakening process will take longer.

[BeaconHill]

A friend and her daughter have been on holiday in Orlando visiting friends, due to fly back on the weekend…. But by the time they tried to arrange to get out early, they could not get any flights anywhere. So they are riding out the storm in the top floor room of a hotel complex halfway between Lakeland and Orlando (at the point indicated). They have been told to expect power and water outages at a “bare minimum”. Hopefully the wind intensity at landfall continues to drop as per models, but they still might end up in the eye wall remnants not long after landfall. Her daughter is terrified.

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[Razor]

Gosh what a disaster this is looking like. I see its back to a Cat 5 too as at 10am NZ time

[Orion]

A friend and her daughter have been on holiday in Orlando visiting friends, due to fly back on the weekend…. But by the time they tried to arrange to get out early, they could not get any flights anywhere. So they are riding out the storm in the top floor room of a hotel complex halfway between Lakeland and Orlando (at the point indicated). They have been told to expect power and water outages at a “bare minimum”. Hopefully the wind intensity at landfall continues to drop as per models, but they still might end up in the eye wall remnants not long after landfall. Her daughter is terrified.

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Wishing them the best, BeaconHill. Hope they remain safe.

[harleyb]

I had a roam around the western Florida Peninsula on Google Earth and am gobsmacked at the sheer scale of just-above-sea-level canal developments all along the coast there. They are literally sitting ducks.

The image here is of the spit at the south side of the entrance to Tampa Bay. According to Google Earth, the ground elevation here is about 1 metre above sea level. This area is currently expecting a 10-15 foot (say 3 to 5 metre) storm surge, which is likely to coincide with high tide.

Honestly, you have to ask, why on earth has this kind of development been allowed to take place when something like Hurricane Milton is inevitable, eventually? Even without any effects from climate change?

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[spwill]

Hurricane Miltons forecast track is a bit further south now which reduces storm surge risk for the very populated Tampa Bay area, this area was badly hit by Hurricane Helenes storm surge a couple of weeks back.

[darcyplumb]

Milton is still at Category 5 strength with a central pressure of 907mb. Models were showing that the weakening trend ‘should’ have started 8 hours ago with the introduction of vertical shear. No sign of that yet. For anyone who likes following along, tropicaltidbits.com is a great site. Shows you the live hurricane hunter data (two planes currently making passes through the eye). For live coverage tomorrow, Ryan Hall Y’all on YouTube is highly recommended. Landfall due tomorrow afternoon/evening NZDT.

[JP.]

Milton is still at Category 5 strength with a central pressure of 907mb. Models were showing that the weakening trend ‘should’ have started 8 hours ago with the introduction of vertical shear. No sign of that yet. For anyone who likes following along, tropicaltidbits.com is a great site. Shows you the live hurricane hunter data (two planes currently making passes through the eye). For live coverage tomorrow, Ryan Hall Y’all on YouTube is highly recommended. Landfall due tomorrow afternoon/evening NZDT.

Thanks for that link, the Ryan Hall YT is great. Currently 14 active tornado warnings over Florida. Incredible viewing

[Orion]

Reed Timmer Channel: LIVE GROUND ZERO CAT 4 HURRICANE MILTON Intercept

[JP.]

St Petersburg (SE of Tampa) has recorded 16.6 inches (421mm) of rain today so far

[Simon Culling]

The most interesting impact of Hurricane Milton was the number of tornadoes spawned on the SE side and in advance of the hurricane during the day of Wednesday 9th October - over east and south east Florida and away from the track of the centre. Map below (taken from the linked tweet) was compiled by NWS Storm Prediction Centre and is up to 7am today (10th Oct), so may be a few late reports still to be included.

https://x.com/kilkennyweather/status/18 ... 7680673161