Tropical Cyclone Alfred

[Nev]

A developing Tropical Low in the Coral Sea, about 500 km ENE of Cairns, now has a high chance of reaching TC status by tomorrow morning (Sunday) or possibly even earlier. Models a little undecided on its exact track, but long term both GFS and EC have it tracking back to cross the central Qld coast in about a week or so, although that could change...

[Nev]

TC Alfred in the Coral Sea was named by the BoM this evening.
Long way out, but ECMWF 12Z run has Alfred paying NZ a visit in a couple of weeks time...

[Vertigo]

Cyclone Alfred looking more and more like itll visit NZ.

[Nev]

Cyclone Alfred looking more and more like itll visit NZ.

Yes, EC are now currently progging a direct hit on the upper North Island as early as mid next week, while GFS have a dissipated Alfred heading around the lower South Island a bit later. Other models are still favouring an earlier Qld crossing. It really depends on how quickly the current high moves away from NZ.

[TonyT]

GFS is confident on a recurve to Queensland,

gfs-atcf-18s-1740571200-0571200.png

but EC has a bad case of the yips!

ecmwf-bufr-alfred18p-1740571200-0571200.png

[Nev]

Mod Note: Thought Severe TC Alfred might warrant its own thread.

[Nev]

Severe TC Alfred was upgraded to Cat 3 earlier this morning, as it begins its more southward track.

[Nev]

Alfred continues to strengthen and likely to reach Cat 4 overnight. JTWC seems to be favouring more of SE track by early next week...

[Nev]

Alfred has just been upgraded to Cat 4, with max winds of 170 km/h and central pressure at 954 hPa.

[Nev]

Alfred has slowed a little this morning allowing more upwelling of cool water to weaken it slightly down to a high-end Cat 3.

[TonyT]

Looking more and more like an Australian landfall or northern Tasman Sea death.

gfs-atcf-18s-1740657600-0657600.png

ecmwf-bufr-alfred18p-1740657600-0657600.png

[Nev]

Alfred sporting a large ragged eye today after completing an eyewall replacement earlier. Intensity maintained as a high-end Cat 3, with max winds of 155 km/h and gusts to 220 km/h. Modelling fairly consistent through the weekend, but after that there still seems to be a high degree of variation...

[Nev]

Alfred has intensified a little is back up to Cat 4, with max winds of 165 km/h and a slightly more contracted eye.

[Nev]

Severe TC Alfred back down to Cat 3 this morning and no longer has a discernible eye. Alfred looks to be slowly weakening as it encounters deep shear along with some dry air intrusion. It's forecast to track more SW from today, then turn SE from Sunday. However, it's now looking more likely that Alfred will recurve back towards the southern Qld coast from mid next week and possibly make landfall there as a Cat 2 TC.

[Nev]

Alfred continued to weaken overnight and was downgraded to Cat 2 earlier this morning as it encounters increasing shear along with significant dry air intrusion. Convection now displaced well to the SE of an exposed LLCC. Landfall now looking more likely along the SE Qld or far northern NSW coast on Thursday.

[spwill]

A rare weather forcast for Brisbane for Thursday, from BOM

Brisbane area
Cloudy. Very high chance of showers. Destructive wind gusts exceeding 130 km/h possible depending on movement and development of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

[Nev]

^ Yes, early days, but assuming it does hit near Brisbane, strongest winds will be to the south of its centre.

Alfred down to Cat 1 this evening. Convection sheared to the south of its fully exposed LLCC and dry intrusion from the north.
However, Alfred is forecast to reintensify from Tuesday before making landfall on Thursday.

[Nev]

Alfred has become a little more organised this morning and strengthened back up to Cat 2...

[Nev]

After dropping back to Cat 1 yesterday, Alfred has re-intensified to Cat 2 overnight. Deep convection remains sheared well to the SE of its fully exposed LLCC, along with significant dry air intrusion from the NW. Alfred currently exhibits subtropical characteristics, with a shallow asymmetric warm core, although this is forecast to deepen again and become more symmetric in the next 24 hours.

[Nev]

Alfred has maintained its Cat 2 strength and assumed its more westward track this afternoon. Very strong NW wind shear and dry air continues to keep convection to the SE of its LLCC. However, the forecast is for the system to deepen and become more symmetric in the next 24-36 hours. SST's are around 26C, but increase to 27C closer to the coast. Alfred is expected to make landfall late Thursday and early Friday morning as at least a high-end Cat 2, with max winds up to 110 km/h and gusts to 155 km/h.

[BeaconHill]

Looking more and more like an Australian landfall or northern Tasman Sea death.

gfs-atcf-18s-1740657600-0657600.pngecmwf-bufr-alfred18p-1740657600-0657600.png

Looking back at this post from last Thursday, GFS models did a good job predicting this one!

[Nev]

Organisation appears to have improved today, as Alfred's earlier asymmetric shallow warm core trends back towards a more deep symmetric warm-cored structure. Significant NW shear has eased a little this afternoon and, despite continued dry air from the NW wrapping into the system, deep convection from the limited feed of moisture to the NE has increased around and to the SE of its centre.

[JP.]

The southern side of Alfred looks wetter with stronger winds. I can see this looking quite bad for the Gold Coast / Coolangata areas. A lot of rain in the forecast with quite high winds for that area of the gold coast.

[Nev]

After doing a little backward loop overnight, Alfred's general westward motion looks to have slowed a little. Westerly shear is still high and dry air continues to wrap into the system. Landfall at Cat 1 strength now looks more likely later on Friday or possibility even Saturday.

[Kobi]

After doing a little backward loop overnight, Alfred's general westward motion looks to have slowed a little. Westerly shear is still high and dry air continues to wrap into the system. Landfall at Cat 1 strength now looks more likely later on Friday or possibility even Saturday.

What caused Alfred to do a “little backward loop” yesterday?