Hurricane Ivan, the Terrible

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TonyT
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Unread post by TonyT »

Manukau heads observer wrote:i think you keep taking things out of context Tony
Ok, seems like I have misjudged the mood of the forum on this one. And maybe misinterpreted Stormchaser's comments as well.

Maybe when the next thunderstorm puts a lightening strike directly onto your cowshed Brian, we can all hear a first hand report of the power, and the destruction it leaves behind. ;-)

And as Steven says,
NZstorm wrote:Hurricanes are most interesting when they are causing destruction and chaos.
So lets hope the next time some tropical cyclone remnants get near Auckland they give Grey Lynn a bit of destruction and chaos, we'll all be really interested to hear about it. ;-) Ya just gotta love that destructive weather. Yee hah!

Meantime, I hope there aren't any Jamaicans who read Stormchaser's comment the way I did! :roll:
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

I was told off by TV One when I said that they had too many female weather presenters, saying that I was sexist.
They said that Karen Olson was a qualified meteorlolgist.
Maybe she is but why are weather presenters female?
As a male, I would be quite willing to present the TV weather if they broadcasted it from Christchurch :-k

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Unread post by Michael »

Can you say A-Wum-a-roo and spit saying Rotorua and say Tow poo and Ter geng ga :oops: :twisted:
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: As a male, I would be quite willing to present the TV weather if they broadcasted it from Christchurch :-k

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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Michael wrote:Can you say A-Wum-a-roo and spit saying Rotorua and say Tow poo and Ter geng ga :oops: :twisted:
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: As a male, I would be quite willing to present the TV weather if they broadcasted it from Christchurch :-k

JohnGaul
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... or Car Wear Ahh!


some distant sferics being recorded here tonight :) :)

JohnGaul
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Unread post by Thunder »

HA, you got told off by TV one?! Bizzare..

We need Jim Hickey, give us Jim!!!! He was the best there. I remember on his last night there he commented live at the end of the show about how he didn't think much of the management at the station. The forecast isn't the same.
The current people do a good job doing the weather for ONE but that's as far as it goes for me. Jim was just special in his own right, why did they get rid of him, someone tell me again please?

Where are car tyres made, Kaitia!
What's a Maori TV or car arial, Kotanga! Hehe. :lol:

I've got maori friends who say this to me!
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Aaron Wilkinson
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

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Unread post by NZstorm »

Looks like Ivan just brushed Jamaica.

Still a Cat 5 hurricane with central pres 914hpa.
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

http://www.cingularhams.com/ka4eps.pls

that gives a live feed from the hams in the area!
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Metars from Grand Cayman.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MWCR.html

It will be interesting to see how long they can report for. The eye should go close to Cayman I think.

central pres now 910hpa....sustained winds 150kts.
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Unread post by NZstorm »

THE HURRICANE HAS DEEPENED A LITTLE MORE THIS EVENING AND THE LAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE OBSERVATION...BY DROPSONDE FROM THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS...WAS 910 MB. IVAN RANKS SIXTH FOR LOWEST ATLANTIC BASIN
CENTRAL PRESSURE BEHIND CAMILLE IN 1969 AND MITCH IN 1998 AT 905 MB
EACH...ALLEN IN 1980 AT 899 MB...THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE AT
892 MB...AND GILBERT IN 1988 AT 888 MB. BOTH THE ATMOSPHERIC AND
OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...AND IVAN COULD STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE. HOWEVER...THERE IS
NO SKILL IN PREDICTING INTENSITY CHANGES FOR SUCH EXTREME TROPICAL
CYCLONES. IT SUFFICES TO SAY THAT IVAN IS LIKELY TO HAVE A
DEVASTATING IMPACT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN
CUBA. AFTER IVAN MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE SHIPS MODEL
SHOWS INCREASING SHEAR...SO SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN 2-3 DAYS.
NOTWITHSTANDING...IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL AND
DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

NZstorm wrote:THE HURRICANE HAS DEEPENED A LITTLE MORE THIS EVENING AND THE LAST
CENTRAL PRESSURE OBSERVATION...BY DROPSONDE FROM THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS...WAS 910 MB. IVAN RANKS SIXTH FOR LOWEST ATLANTIC BASIN
CENTRAL PRESSURE BEHIND CAMILLE IN 1969 AND MITCH IN 1998 AT 905 MB
EACH...ALLEN IN 1980 AT 899 MB...THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE AT
892 MB...AND GILBERT IN 1988 AT 888 MB. BOTH THE ATMOSPHERIC AND
OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...AND IVAN COULD STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE. HOWEVER...THERE IS
NO SKILL IN PREDICTING INTENSITY CHANGES FOR SUCH EXTREME TROPICAL
CYCLONES. IT SUFFICES TO SAY THAT IVAN IS LIKELY TO HAVE A
DEVASTATING IMPACT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN
CUBA. AFTER IVAN MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE SHIPS MODEL
SHOWS INCREASING SHEAR...SO SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN 2-3 DAYS.
NOTWITHSTANDING...IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL AND
DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.

Yes, i have just read that.
According to Hawaii it may miss Florida and slam into Alabama/Georgia at the moment :(

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Unread post by Michael »

The eye must be still out from them,its 30 knots and gusty.no more than our SW Gale we often get from the gradient of a 1015 high to a 995 low.Will keep watching however :o
NZstorm wrote:Metars from Grand Cayman.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MWCR.html

It will be interesting to see how long they can report for. The eye should go close to Cayman I think.

central pres now 910hpa....sustained winds 150kts.
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Michael, that URL is a dud as the metars stopped at 1pm today. The observers obviously have made a run for it. Brians links are still working.

For a view of Ivan and Cayman click on the following link and then click again on the hurricane and you will get a close up view.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
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Unread post by tich »

This cyclone is significant enough to be the first item on several radio news bulletins - ahead of terrorism and Iraq, which means it must be a really big storm.
(I would write more, but my right hand is in a bandage after a recent operation)
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Unread post by NZstorm »

South Sound Grand Cayman is registering a rainfall rate of 50mm or so every 10mins. 550mm in last couple of hours. Not sure wether to believe this. Baro is really taking a dive now so Hurricane must be near.
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Unread post by Chris Raine »

Try this
http://www.weatherincayman.com/currcndx.htm

Currently updating every ten minutes
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

i already had that on a post on this thread :D ;)

27 inches of rain for the day so far!
?!
thats huge!
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Unread post by Chris Raine »

Do we have this one
http://www.weatherincayman.com/.
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

yup

this ones rainfall is more believeable:
http://www.weatherincayman.com/zf1ej/wx.htm
i.e 3.68 inches for the 4.5 since midnight, 5.22 inches total

i suspect the other stations rain gauge is getting windspeed fluttering or similar
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

http://www.caymanweather.metsite.com/WxFlash/redbay.htm

here is another one...using wxflash,,,real time!

but its not updating :(
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED
IN PORTIONS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
IVAN. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY
HIGHER...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA. REPORTS FROM HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND
THE CAYMAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE INDICATE THAT POWER IS OUT
THROUGHOUT THE ISLAND...NUMEROUS BUILDINGS HAVE LOST THEIR
ROOFS...WATER UP TO 2 FEET DEEP COVERS THE AIRPORT RUNWAY...AND
WATER AS HIGH AS 5 FEET IS FLOWING THROUGH MANY HOMES.
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Unread post by CbFan »

Just for the archives really. Here are some excerpts of personal reports from Jamaica from an email that I rec'd (spelling and grammar are theirs, names and superfluous info etc clipped as well)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Both were [ ..... ] awaiting the arrival of Hurricane Ivan, and while rain and wind were already over the Island, no significant issues were apparent. Today, Sept 12 at approximately 1 PM local Jamaican time, I was once again able to contact both of them. At this time they had been through two days of heavy wind and rain, but were spared the eye of the hurricane actually hitting the Island.

Both [ ..... ] describe extensive damage to their areas, but were not aware of any loss of life, nor injuries on the Island. Communications are severely hampered because both the phone systems and the power systems have sustained extensive damage. Therefore, at this time our report is preliminary, and can not account for [ ..... ] .



[ ..... ] lives in Free Hill, situated in the hills directly to the South of Runaway Bay. This area is at the North side of the Island, about mid-point between the East & West ends of the Island. [ ..... ] reports:

Personal condition: Family is safe . Their home sustained no damage. They lost most of their goats and many of their trees are down or uprooted. They have been without power for 3 days. The phones are intermittently able to function.

Port Antonio: No significant impacts. Their area was relatively protected by the mountain range that separates them from the South side of the Island where Kingston is located.

Port Maria: Power is out, roads are heavily damaged and impassable.

Kingston: No information at this time. Unable to make contact by phone.

May Pen: Very severe damage to power poles and trees.



[ ..... ] lives in Negril, situated at the far West side of the Island, on the Western beach. [ ..... ] reports:
"This has been quite an experience"… "Hurricane Gilbert (in 1988) was nothing compared to this…" "Everything is damaged…" "We've had two days and nights of extreme winds and unrelenting rain…"

Golden Sunset: (This is the small hotel that [ ..... ] lives.) All the trees have been knocked down or uprooted, emergency generator is working & thus providing a bit of power, water pipes are broken, everything is a mess. My phone call was the first to reach him since Friday. Because his buildings are built from reinforced concrete, they remain standing and in-tack (sic).

Broughton: No power, no gas, no radio, little to no phone.

Harvey River & Montego Bay: Unable to contact yet.
The sender of this email is 100% Non-Astraphobic, Keraunophobic, Lilapsophobic, Antlophobic or Nephophobic !
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

a bouy near the path of ivan in the gulf
looks like the northern gulf states are going to be hit very hard by Ivan!
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Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

Looks too be on target to hit NEW ORLEANS! And this isnt good for locals with the most part of town below sea level!!!
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