NZ Weather Forum

IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR
145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB...27.70 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.




Could hit jaimaca in a day or so

The Americans are regularly observing Ivan with the Hurricane Hunter aircraft. They fly into the eye and by finding the 700hpa height they can get an accurate fix on surface pressure.

The ECMRF has Ivan reaching Florida about Tuesday.

remember the 915 hpa TC in the south pacific a few years ago?
that beats this one!

Manukau heads observer wrote:remember the 915 hpa TC in the south pacific a few years ago?
that beats this one!

No???

John Gaul
NZTS

Whats the lowest surface pressure ever read? Is it below 900? I guess tornadoes must go much lower

yes, 885 or something like that..(or is it 845).in a typhoon in guam..its in the guiness book of world records...
i am sure there was a TC off NW australia that nearly got the world record recently

remember the 915 hpa TC in the south pacific a few years ago?

Yes, I thought that one got down to 895hpa. It lingered east of Vanuatu for a few days.

Latest on Ivan is a central pressure 917hpa, sustained winds 140kts, Cat5.

Metars from Kingston, Jamaica.
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MKJP.html

yes it did get down to that....but i didnt want to stick my head out...

ivan is bad to the bone!
if it hits florida...disastor!

found this:
Strong Hurricanes/Typhoons
Name Basin Year Wind MPH Pressure MB
Typhoon Tip* Pacific 1979 190 870
Typhoon Zeb Pacific 1998 ??? <8724
Typhoon Gay Pacific 1992 185 872
Typhoon Keith Pacific 1997 190 872
Typhoon Joan Pacific 1997 ??? 872
Typhoon Ivan Pacific 1997 ??? 872
Typhoon Yuri Pacific 1991 175 885
Hurricane Gilbert Atlantic 1988 185 888
Typhoon Nancy3 Pacific 1961 213 888
Unnamed1 Atlantic 1935 160 8922
Hurricane Allen Atlantic 1980 190 899
Hurricane Linda Pacific 1997 185 900
Hurricane Camille Atlantic 1969 190 905
Hurricane Mitch Atlantic 1998 180 906

http://www.weatherwatchers.org/tropical ... mitch.html

The last time 3 hurricanes affected Florida in one season was 1964.

Ivan may still be a cat4 when it reaches southern Florida.

Radar from Jamaica. Can see the eye in the longer range scans.

http://www.metservice.gov.jm/radarpage.asp

bad!
its going to be a direct hit!

good
its going to be a direct hit!

good
its going to be a direct hit!

EDIT_sorry about posting it twice!

03 Stormchaser wrote:good
its going to be a direct hit!

I dont think we should wish this sort of thing on anyone, Stormchaser. This forum is about enjoying weather, not being pleased that some people suffer by it.

He maybe meaning it for recording details but it would be better over open water

TonyT wrote:

03 Stormchaser wrote:good
its going to be a direct hit!

I dont think we should wish this sort of thing on anyone, Stormchaser. This forum is about enjoying weather, not being pleased that some people suffer by it.

i think you keep taking things out of context Tony
yes, this is a weather forum....and so a big powerfull Hurricane making a direct hit on a tropical island is interesting weather wise becuase then we will be able to see the power of that hurricane by the destruction it leaves behind....and watch the weather reports unfold...if people want to live in the caribean, then they are obviously used to hurricanes, and need to be ready to get one at some time....
it would be great for them if they always steered around every island...but that does not happen...
same for florida...they have goten to be a bit lax....its been a bit of a wake up call for them too...

but i dont and i dont think stormchaser03 does either wants people to die and property to be be destroyed....but if you live in an area that gets hurricanes then thats the risk you take.....you cant stop a hurricane...

just my thoughts

Sorry about the miss understanding!

Having an interest in stormchasing/watching and an extra interest in Hurricanes, Ivan reaching land on floridas coast and in the tropics provides us with that extra amount of information available on the net. It also shows us natures force that we would not be able to other wise see should it bypass land. 3 Hurricanes in a row is unfortunate and I am in no way 'wishing this sort of thing on anybody' or that Im 'pleased that some people suffer by it' How you manage to take that angle I dont know!


Imagine how much meteorological knowledge we wouldn't have now if we couldn't view material considered insensitive to any victims of a weather event-Gary Roberts

Looks like the power has gone in Jamaica. Surface obs plus radar have not been updated the last couple of hours. Damn. Just when the weather was going to get interesting.

Taranki Tornado

John Gaul wrote:

but The most important think about, this event:
"Did anyone get it on tape?!!!!"

03stormchaser wrote:

Some how I dont think it is the most important!!! A little insensitive to the family of the victims!

You see, 03 isn't a totally mean bugger! He's just like all of us!

Remember that one? Maybe it might play some relevance here…

Of course John didn’t wish harm on the people affected but from a meteorological and storm chasers point of view, “nobody got it on tape!”.

03, maybe best not to write "How you manage to take that angle I dont know!", because it can be taken that way even if you didn't mean it. We are all weather on this forum. People getting hurt is not what we, you or me want!

Lets end it there, back to weather!!!

Happy days are here again etc etc, my Dad said that song used to be on alot when he was a kid! Something to lighten the mood.

Sorry about the miss understanding!

Hurricanes are most interesting when they are causing destruction and chaos. If Ivan was out in the middle of the Atlantic we wouldn't be so interested.

reports from Jamaica here (damage)

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/2004/jamaica.shtml

NZstorm wrote:

Sorry about the miss understanding!

Hurricanes are most interesting when they are causing destruction and chaos. If Ivan was out in the middle of the Atlantic we wouldn't be so interested.

Well put

2.15pm today. looking real intense.

The elongation of Ivan is due to the hurricane running up against an upper ridge just the north. Looks like Ivan might pass just under Jamaica.
Jamaica has terrain upto about 2000m, it will be interesting to see what impact this has.