Timing and Thunderstorms

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NZ Thunderstorm Soc
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

NZstorm wrote: Upper air looks a bit unstable over South island today but as Tony alerted to in a previous post, there is no trigger. Surface temps will stay to cool.

Yes it was cloudy and cool over ChCh today all day. If the cloud had of cleared something may of happened :lol:

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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

the most critical thing for thunderstorm development is to live somewhere where they actually happen.
ahh, but thats why canterbury people get so excited when CB's might develop.....its that they never know when they will get lucky!!
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Unread post by NZstorm »

ahh, but thats why canterbury people get so excited when CB's might develop.....its that they never know when they will get lucky!!
Canterbury is the province in NZ with the lowest incidence of convection/thunder. The obvious reason for this ofcoarse is that the area is cut off from weather and moisture by the alps. But also the lack of terrain is also another important reason.

Regions most prone to summer heat thunderstorms is inland Waikato/Bay of Plenty. Inland Otago/Southland is another hot spot.

October is usually an uneventful month for thunder in New Zealand.
About mid November on the chances of heat storms rises sharply. :)
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Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

NZstorm wrote: Canterbury is the province in NZ with the lowest incidence of convection/thunder. The obvious reason for this ofcoarse is that the area is cut off from weather and moisture by the alps. But also the lack of terrain is also another important reason.
I beg to differ, Christchurch has a low incidence of convection/thunder. Not Canturbury. As long as you are prepared to 'stormchase' you will find that canterbury will have quite a few more thunderstorms. Whats going against chch is BP, When a southerly does come thru BP acts as a sort of barrier toning down the serverity of it, Although it doesnt mean we dont get bad southerlys. Ashbourton will probably get twice as many thunderstorms as what chch gets because of this
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

yes
if you go inland to the craigeburn range area (i have been there), then you get great electrical storm displays if there is an active cold front corssing the southern alps!
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Unread post by TonyT »

Another view - I doubt that Ashburton's thunder incidence is significantly different to Christchurch's, or any other place on the Plains. But I agree to lump all of Canterbury in as a low thunder zone is a bit misleading - there are known favoured generating sites for convective (summer) storms eg Mt Peel area, Mt Hutt range, Hanmer Basin which probably have a much higher incidence of thunder than Christchurch or Ashburton or Rangiora or most parts of the Plains.

However, Steven is correct in that the topography of Canterbury does block the arrival what we might call advective thunderstorms in unstable air masses. The only directions open to the ocean are from Northeast to Southsouthwest. Airflows from northeast to Southeast are rarely unstable enough to support deep convection, while flows from SSW to SSE are usually too dry due to the very cold surface airmass. Flow from any other direction is blocked by topography.

So, the two main types of storm we see are those generated on (with) a cold SW change as it moves up over the Plains, and as we have seen in the last 3 weeks, only a very small proportion of such changes have the right combination of factors to generate storms; and true convective storms, which mostly develop on the inland high country, and blow across the Plains in unsteable westerly quarter airflow. And they need the levels of solar radiation to generate big enough thermals that we generally only see in the summer months.

However, there are storms, and there are storms. One of the nice things about Canterbury summer storms is that, although they are relatively rare, they are usually easy to see from a long distance away, they look spectacular, and they often produce the classic thunderstorm weather at the surface, unlike the many storms which more regularly affect western districts, but seem more like thundery showers, quickly passing by, than 'enjoyable' storms.

Feel free to disagree :)
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Unread post by tich »

However, there are storms, and there are storms. One of the nice things about Canterbury summer storms is that, although they are relatively rare, they are usually easy to see from a long distance away, they look spectacular, and they often produce the classic thunderstorm weather at the surface, unlike the many storms which more regularly affect western districts, but seem more like thundery showers, quickly passing by, than 'enjoyable' storms.
You stole my thunder (excuse the pun :lol: ) - I was going to say something similar. Many thunderstorms in northern and western places (such as Auckland) occur in rainy situations where there's usually alot of heavy cloud cover, so the thunder and lightning may be spectacular itself, but one misses seeing the visual splendour of the cb tops. Down here, the storms, even though they're rarer, are visually more interesting as they can be seen from a distance. (though spectacular 'thunderheads' can sometimes be seen in Auckland and other places as well - as shown on some photos in this forum)
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Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

Almost similar too what you would find in America, ie tornado alley. Once when on the plains aaron and i saw something very similar, a number of good buildups dotted over the plains all though they didnt produce any thing, we had the feel of storm chasing in America.

I agree our thunderstorms when they come are quite some thing special :)
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Actually Ashburton does catch more thunder than Christchurch. Not quite sure why. And yes, there are a few hot spots in Canterbury for thunder such as Mt Peel and Banks Peninsula. But generaly the incindence is quite low compared to other regions in the South Island. Inland east Otago would be the most thundery region in summer down there. Reason being is that its more southern location gives it better exposure to cold upper air, there is plenty of high ground near the coast, relatively high temperatures occur in the sheltered basins, the cool moist sea breeze off the Otago coast converges with a drier westerly inland.

Best place in New Zealand for observing thunderstorms is the central North Island in summer. Reason being is that they are more common there than anywhere else in the country. And often they develop in clear weather. They anvils can be seen clearly from Auckland.

Anyway, this debate has given me an idea. A photographic competition to get the best cb photo of the comming summer. ;)
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Some Canterbury thunder data here

average days of thunder per year.

Timaru 2.8
Fairlie 3.9
Peel forest 5.9
Ashburton 3.6
Rangiora 3.5
Christchurch airport 2.2
Christchurch city 1.5
Banks Peninsula 4.7

This info can be taken as a rough guide only. It relies on the weather observer recording a thunder event. Actual frequencies are likely to be higher. But the Christchurch airport figures are representative because the airport has an hourly observation programme 24/7. Less likely they would miss an occurance.

And with all these locations, Most of the thunder was recorded in the months November to January.
Last edited by NZstorm on Sun 26/09/2004 13:24, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread post by TonyT »

NZstorm wrote:Actually Ashburton does catch more thunder than Christchurch. Not quite sure why.
That ones easy - its almost due west of Mt Peel. But a difference of about 1 day per year compared to Christchurch is hardly going to get the NZTS to transfer its HQ methinks... :)
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Unread post by tich »

And yes, there are a few hot spots in Canterbury for thunder such as Mt Peel and Banks Peninsula.
Banks Peninsula sticks out more into disturbed and unstable southerlies and southwesterlies, situations more likely to produce thunderstorms. I don't think BP, being coastal would get more convective storms than inland Canterbury.
Anyway, this debate has given me an idea. A photographic competition to get the best cb photo of the comming summer.
No doubt there'll be many great entries, but few cb photos could compare to the one on a NZ Weather calendar a few years ago that showed (from a sunny Wellington city) a massive cb over the Tararuas.
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Unread post by Fujita Phil »

NZStorm wrote:Inland east Otago would be the most thundery region in summer down there
The problem here though is that if you are in the city your view is obstructed to the west. By the time you realise a thunderstorm is coming, it's on top of you.

But I'll get a flash on camera yet :evil:
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Unread post by NZstorm »

The problem here though is that if you are in the city your view is obstructed to the west. By the time you realise a thunderstorm is coming, it's on top of you.
In Dunedin you really need to live on the top of Mornington Hill to get a view into the Strath Taieri where most of Dunedins storms first develop.

Also, I think the best position to observe afternoon thunderstorm development is in the west, looking east. That way the sun is to your back and you are in a good position for Photography. :)
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Unread post by Thunder »

Yes, Christchurch has a low amount of thunder days but if one's willing to travel a bit, more can be had. A trip over to the West Coast isn't all that to far away, I would like to go over there and see what the storms are like. From what I here it's all HP and there's not really any cloud features, would this be right? I'd still go over for a look anyway.......I mean, they do get tornadoes every year and good sized hail, sounds good to me!!

I would add maybe behind Oxford/Amberly and the foothills area around those places as a hotspot maybe. The last two recent thunder events have happened there.

What's inland Southland / Otago's incidences of thunder per year Steven W? Would be cool to know if you've got that info. And Waikato / Bay of Plenty if you've got that to.

I've got some pretty fantastic photo's from Bob Crowder of thundery fronts / clouds in Canterbury. Taken during a summer in 1995 or 1996 I think. And some shots from 1997. I reckon I did an ok Job for this pic:

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It was a pitty I only had a little 2M (see here - http://www.mustek.com/html/prod_camra/gsmart_lcd2.html ) job at the time but I still consider it as one of my best.

I'll do my best Steven W for this summer!! ;)
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Good photo there Aaron.

Re the competition. The cb photo shall represent the province it was photographed in. It won't be the quality of the photo that is to be judged, rather the subject. We are looking for good examples of strong convection.

Re taking photos in the east looking west. The subject loses its detail in the light. This late afternoon thunderstorm would have made a better photo if I was west of it. Photo from last summer.

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Unread post by NZstorm »

What's inland Southland / Otago's incidences of thunder per year Steven W? Would be cool to know if you've got that info. And Waikato / Bay of Plenty if you've got that to.
South
Dunedin Airport 6.9
Invercargill Airport 8.9
Gore 5.7
Alexandra 1.7
Queenstown 4.6
Wanaka 7.1


North
Whakatane 9.7
Rotorua 13.3
Tauranga 11.5
Hamilton 11.1
Cambridge 16.7

As I have suggested these figures are a guide only and rely on the deligence of an individual to record a thunder occurance.

Lightning tracking will give an accurate record of thunderstorm days in the future, once a good data set has been established.
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

This topic has stimulted a bit of conversation on this forum and I do tend to agree with tony T and Steve, (stormchasre 03) comments.
Thunderstorms on the West Coast are of mainly the "Thundery rain" type of thunderstorm that MetService uses in it's word phrasing.
They can be boring with mostly sheet lightning.
Auckland thunderstorms are quite spectacular (although I have never been in Auckland in a thunderstorm) but what I've seen.
It's ithsmus landscape can contribute to opposing sea-breezes in summer that can lead to good convectiveness.

...sorry, my wife has just said "Tea's up" so I'll come back later.....


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Unread post by Michael »

Youre Lucky/unlucky whatever your view ;)
I never been in a Canterbury NWer either I would love to though but been to Hawkes Bay in a NWer so its probably similar :?:
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: (although I have never been in Auckland in a thunderstorm)


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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

A Canterbury Nor'Wester can be horrible as my wife will tell you as she suffers from Feohn Disease :evil:
...and I get hayfever :cry: which makes my eyes run, sneezing up to 17 times in a row =D>

With a good, juicy, sexy, Canterbury thunderstorm, even though thunderstorms here may not be as frequent as in other parts of New Zealand, they are a good chance to clear up the weather before the next fine weather system comes over.
:roll:
....and also they would be NZ's only chance of a super-cell system development as what occured Labour WE 2002 :)
...on that note I'm off to bed :-#

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Unread post by Willoughby »

How often do thunderstorms originate from heat lows in New Zealand? I recall being in my biggest thunderstorm last year, nov 23, from a heat low as we got up to 23c, far more than any other NI centre. 56mm fell in one hour and caused brief flooding. Conditions were perfect for this, high humidy, dew point, a breezy northerly, some ground heating, upper air unstable and temp increased as the low centre approached Hamilton.

Would've been more violent if it was windier!

How often do thunderstorms originate from heat lows in New Zealand? :?:
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Unread post by Thunder »

Odd, it's 19 degrees outside and the dewpoint is at 7! Where's the moisture coming from? It's a NW situation outside... Maybe there was (is?) quite a bit of moisture inland more and it's being blowen this way so maybe it will / won't hold up. I'm not complaining, if this keeps up and the SW comes through at the right angle a bit earlier than expected, horay! I actually see good boiling Cu developing over the Port Hills now. :D

Re heat lows:

It does happen in the middel of summer. I wouldn't say it's the main reason thunderstorms happen in NZ but they contribute to the amount of thunder days in the central areas of both Islands. Steven W might know of the ratio of heat low storms that happen each year compared to other forms of thunderstorms?

Central Otago / Southland and the central north Island had some good heat lows around the summer of 2002:

Here's a sat pic from 2nd december 2002 when there was a big high over the country but heat lows formed in the central north Island and central Southland:

http://satellite.landcareresearch.co.nz ... d02122.jpg

This next pic was from on the 30th November (only a few days before the pic above) and shows good storms in Central Otago / Southland. The high was very much present over the country but heat lows formed inland and storms were the result. John Gaul has video footage of the exact storms from the South Island that your looking at in those sat pics.

http://satellite.landcareresearch.co.nz ... d30112.jpg
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Unread post by Thunder »

Cb on the plains now! Well I thin it's a Cb

No lightning as of yet according to the tracker and my eyes as I didn't see any, the base is a we way away though. It's possibly near springfeild or closer near Templeton, I can't really tell the distance that well.

Other nice looking Cu about aswell.

I wounder if this is a FC? Nahhh!! Or is it! :D

I think I'm going to bugger off home, everything looks to good!
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Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

Heavy rain in chch with some decent looking clouds now closing in :) :)
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Unread post by tich »

Heavy rain in chch with some decent looking clouds now closing in
Not heavy, but there certainly has been some rain in the central city. The wind has gone south and the temperature predictably has dropped.
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