Very Wet in Palmerston North

GreggWard · Unread post by **GreggWard** » Tue 03/06/2003 14:29

It has been bucketing down all morning in Palmerston North.

There has been quite a lot of surface flooding, with the Fire Service called out to several places to try and pump the water away from flooded streets and properties.

I would love to know what todays current rainfall total is. I am currently at work, so I am looking forward to getting home and checking my rain gauge to see how full it is.

If you look at the Wellington radar images on the NZ Metservice site, for 09:00 and 12:00, they only seem to show several localised showers, no big band of rain, which is what I was expecting.

I'll fill you in on further details later.

Gregg

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Tue 03/06/2003 16:17

We had rain here too

-just more annoying here but not as much as Palmerston but the high seems to divided into 2 on the map and you must of been sandwiched between the two and got the trough from it.

Manukau heads obs · Tue 03/06/2003 18:20

http://ps.gen.nz/~windy/surobsold.htm

they got 47mm

but i forgot to reset the rain totals for the new month!
doing that now

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Tue 03/06/2003 19:00

TV 1 gave 61mm

Manukau heads obs · Tue 03/06/2003 19:03

the 47mm was the 24 hour total to noon....

GreggWard · Unread post by **GreggWard** » Tue 03/06/2003 19:49

As Michael mentioned earlier, TV1 advised that 61mm of rain fell, with most of this rain falling within two hours this morning.

Apparently the cause of this rain event, was a convergence line between southerlies coming through Cook Strait and westerlies in the southern part of the Taranaki Bight. This convergence line produced heavy showers which then moved across the western Manawatu onto Palmerston North.

Wasn't this sort of situation similar to the one, which produced heavy rain in Christchurch recently.

Gregg

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Tue 03/06/2003 19:59

Gregg What wind did you have when it rained? Palmerston North can get those cold SE or it gets no wind but its from the South and of course the blustery westerlies but they drier down their except the cold disturbed westerlies give cb showers there.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 03/06/2003 21:34

That surface southerly was very shallow, under 1000m. The upper air was looking a bit unstable lower NI this morning with LI -0.4 K29.
Suprised there was no thunder reported.

Front out to NW of Westport looks quite active with embedded cb's this evening.

Cheers

Thunder · Unread post by **Thunder** » Wed 04/06/2003 15:15

Gregg

I believe this was similar to the situation that happened in Chch, but I think in Palmerston North the rain might have been more intense or it enjured for a longer time than here in Chch.

Cheers
Aaron Wilkinson

thunderhead21 · Unread post by **thunderhead21** » Wed 04/06/2003 17:58

A band of heavy showers bought 17mls of rain between 6 and 9 am
Then the cloud convergence bought 37mls between 10 and 12 with with the majority of it falling between 11 and 12

Gene Anton · Unread post by **Gene Anton** » Wed 04/06/2003 19:56

>It has been bucketing down all morning in Palmerston North
I seem to remember Brian quoting the Moonman who quite a while ago had said it would flood in some places around Tuesday. Correct me if I'm wrong.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 04/06/2003 20:09

The Palmerston North rainfall event was a freak mesoscale occurance, surely beyond the scope of a Lunar forecaster.

The front out to the west of the North Island could be interesting. Lots of moisture there and some instability within it.

Manukau heads obs · Wed 04/06/2003 20:28

Hi Gene
This was his statement:
"From the 2nd-4th of June I expect big rains for the North Island, possible
flooding in many areas north of Taupo."

people can come to there own conclusion on that one.

Gene Anton · Unread post by **Gene Anton** » Wed 04/06/2003 20:56

Hi Brian
Thanks for that full quote. I s'pose you do read what you want into it, but perhaps he was onto something. Severe weather warnings were put out for that exact perod in central districts and Palmy copped it probably the most. Seems like he might have gotten his latitude wrong, but his forecast right. A bit spooky, if you ask me.
ciao
Gene

Manukau heads obs · Wed 04/06/2003 21:04

well it is winter, and there is nothing spooky about getting heavy rain in winter, and ,getting heavy rain in a 3 day window (5 day if you allow the 24 hour allowance) somewhere in the north Island...well, its not spooky, its a near safe bet me thinks.
just my thoughts (you have to keep these things in perspective you see)

GreggWard · Unread post by **GreggWard** » Wed 04/06/2003 21:23

Michael wrote:Gregg What wind did you have when it rained? Palmerston North can get those cold SE or it gets no wind but its from the South and of course the blustery westerlies but they drier down their except the cold disturbed westerlies give cb showers there.

Michael,

There didn't appear to be much wind at all, but based on the direction the cloud was coming from, it appeared to be a light W-NW wind.

Gregg

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 04/06/2003 21:34

Just add my thoughts

ken did say north of Taupo....it did'nt rain north of T.(few light shrs only)

Ken did say say big rains. This was a very localised heavy showery event. Not widespread heavy rains. Big rains for areas north of T
means 100-200mm over a broad area. Clearly "Big rains" did not occur.

Cheers

Manukau heads obs · Wed 04/06/2003 21:44

just for interest sake:
"AUCKLAND

June 2003

1st:
Mainly dry.

2nd-3rd
Rain.

4th-14th
Mostly dry."

thats a 10 day dry period in June, aucklands 2nd wettest month of the year, behind July.
Will be interesting to see how this pans out (but heavy rain is forecast for this friday)
Ken must have missed posting the rest of aucklands forecast for june...

jrj · Unread post by **jrj** » Thu 05/06/2003 08:52

Speaking of K*n, an article in our local paper last month under the headline "Drier May, but wet June for Bay" stated: "Hawke's Bay could expect a drier May but a wet June, according to Auckland-based Predict Weather. Director Ken Ring said that during May, Hastings could expect slightly less han it's average of 60mm." !We received a whopping 109mm!)
He also predicted "prolonged rains" from June 2-4 and again from June 15-17. (We have had no rain in June as yet.)
Looking forward to the 15th!
Incidentally, the paper made no mention of how these predictions are made, and that the same methods are used to predict earthquakes and air crashes as well, not to mention space-shuttle disasters!

Manukau heads obs · Thu 05/06/2003 08:55

we are getting into dangerous areas now, LOL
Thick rain here in the last 4 hours
now 17mm has fallen

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 05/06/2003 09:08

Looking forward to the day the long range weather forecast doesn't say "Precipitation"

whenever it maybe

Gene Anton · Unread post by **Gene Anton** » Thu 05/06/2003 11:18

James
To be fair on poor old K*n, the big rainfalls in Hawkes Bay that took the area over the average happened only in the last few days of the month. Up till then (and correct me if I'm wrong)the rainfall was way below average for both Napier and Hastings; and further up the road Gisborne ended up finally with only a third of its average for the month. Comparing his lunar to our solar calendar there's an overlap a few days either side as the months change over. So I can see where he is coming from and to give him some due he would have been right for most of May, if you see what I mean. Just my bit.
ciao
Gene

Manukau heads obs · Thu 05/06/2003 11:48

But the vast majority of people work to a normal standard calendar you see.....and why should we have to keep shifting the goal posts all the time so his trends fit in reality...cant see the point in that....
the weather goes in patterns, and sometimes a long range prediction will fit a pattern, sometimes it wont.Simple as that. Anyone can work out an average pattern from years of data, and use that as a basis...and quite often, if you look at a trend, especialy with all the out clauses and escape valves built into the moon system, then it will fit....and other times it will be way out (and then there is excuses for that)....there is no control or basis for it....
it doesnt mean anything at all...its just a game he plays with us.
I dont take it seriosuly, and I dont think anyone else should take it seriously either...as he said, its just his opnion..and we should all leave it him up to himself, otherwise we get into trouble....
( i have put alot of 2 cents worth up on this subject over the last year!!)
LOL

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 05/06/2003 13:07

Why don't they take the usual guess saying showers or rain in the west of both Islands and north and south and mostly dry in the east and about Wellington.
This is the standard forecast that seems to be the norm these days and dont need any expensive gear or tons of money

Manukau heads obs · Thu 05/06/2003 13:23

your onto it michael

grass growing good here with the warm conditions and rain (warm for this time of year, at 17oC)